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The 2019 General Election

The Lib Dem’s are going for the ‘bicep kissing strategy’!

make big, bold claims about how tremendously you’re going to do, in order to convince the public that it’s possible. Most politicians are told to under-promise and over-deliver. The Lib Dems believe that the more they shout they can win apparently unwinnable seats, the more the voters may give them a go.
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Jeepers!
 
DJWrongspeed said:
Starting well for Boris being booed at Addenbrokes, Cambridge today but student Dr delivers 5 min off the cuff speech
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Here's an optimistic scenario how the campaign might turn out:

-Brexit is on 'pause' and there'll be no new news to keep it in the headlines. There's already a lot of Brexit fatigue out there, so maybe voters might not be as pumped about it coming into the election. It's the end of the year, its dark out, and we're all exhausted. The Dominic Cummings approach has been to turbocharge Brexit, create maximum heat and ride that boost. But maybe that peaked too early and there's not enough Brexit outrage left to keep the momentum up - especially as it was Johnson himself who put the brakes on.

-If that's true then there's more room for the domestic agenda to take a central role. The Tory election pitch is to throw a lot of money at hospitals and schools (whether true or not is not the issue). But hospital and school workers basically hate Johnson, meaning he can barely step foot in one without getting booed or similiar. In fact public appearances are going to be awkward full stop. By contrast Corbyn will get a much better reception. Over time this could become a clear pattern in media representation. Heckling Boris might even become a Thing.

-Corbyn has already had every possible arrow fired at him - there can't be anything new to try and pin on him. Johnson by contrast has fresher rope infront of him. Might yet get hung a bit.
 
ska invita said:
Here's an optimistic scenario how the campaign might turn out:

-Brexit is on 'pause' and there'll be no new news to keep it in the headlines. There's already a lot of Brexit fatigue out there, so maybe voters might not be as pumped about it coming into the election. It's the end of the year, its dark out, and we're all exhausted. The Dominic Cummings approach has been to turbocharge Brexit, create maximum heat and ride that boost. But maybe that peaked too early and there's not enough Brexit outrage left to keep the momentum up - especially as it was Johnson himself who put the brakes on.

-If that's true then there's more room for the domestic agenda to take a central role. The Tory election pitch is to throw a lot of money at hospitals and schools (whether true or not is not the issue). But hospital and school workers basically hate Johnson, meaning he can barely step foot in one without getting booed or similiar. In fact public appearances are going to be awkward full stop. By contrast Corbyn will get a much better reception. Over time this could become a clear pattern in media representation. Heckling Boris might even become a Thing.

-Corbyn has already had every possible arrow fired at him - there can't be anything new to try and pin on him. Johnson by contrast has fresher rope infront of him. Might yet get hung a bit.
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Hopefully also drawn and quartered
 
Mr Moose said:
Yes. Leave/Remain was pretty much 52/48 so that may be less of a factor or at least a more neutral factor. Has to be a Labour target on the basis the Tory vote could split..
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Obviously much will hinge on Sandbach's personal support/loyalty (& incumbency factor), but I'm afraid that I know nothing of the constituency.
Even so...one to watch.
 
ska invita said:
Here's an optimistic scenario how the campaign might turn out:

-Brexit is on 'pause' and there'll be no new news to keep it in the headlines. There's already a lot of Brexit fatigue out there, so maybe voters might not be as pumped about it coming into the election. It's the end of the year, its dark out, and we're all exhausted. The Dominic Cummings approach has been to turbocharge Brexit, create maximum heat and ride that boost. But maybe that peaked too early and there's not enough Brexit outrage left to keep the momentum up - especially as it was Johnson himself who put the brakes on.

-If that's true then there's more room for the domestic agenda to take a central role. The Tory election pitch is to throw a lot of money at hospitals and schools (whether true or not is not the issue). But hospital and school workers basically hate Johnson, meaning he can barely step foot in one without getting booed or similiar. In fact public appearances are going to be awkward full stop. By contrast Corbyn will get a much better reception. Over time this could become a clear pattern in media representation. Heckling Boris might even become a Thing.

-Corbyn has already had every possible arrow fired at him - there can't be anything new to try and pin on him. Johnson by contrast has fresher rope infront of him. Might yet get hung a bit.
Click to expand...

I do think the tories have had tunnel vision on brexit and they assume the rest of the country does too. In my experience people are more concerned about the chaos that greeted them last time they had to go to A&E, or the fact their kid's school is sending them begging letters, or the fact they haven't seen a policeman since 2016.

Johnson secured the tory leadership by picking that 31st of October deadline as the hill he was going to die on. That was all he had to offer his own party even, and he blew it. If I were a tory MP I'd much rather someone else was leading me into an election in which I want to keep my seat.
 
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