The 2017 General Election campaign

[Rimbaud]

in fact, given the clear media hostility towards Corbyn...and the often leading questions, I would not be too surprised if there is a little 'shy Tory' syndrome ocurring with the public response to polling.

I also have an over-optimistic temperament, but I suspect this to be the case as well. Corbyn has been vilified so much that some people feel like supporting him isn't the done thing, but they might actually vote Labour on the day. For this reason as well as the likelihood of a higher turnout than usual among Labour supporters this election, I expect Labour to outperform the polls on the actual day.

 

[butchersapron]

The shy tory effect moved the last election (from the polling figures at least) from both parties being level pegging on around 32-36% to a final result of 36%/30%. if the exact same thing happens this time with shy labour voters - and i think there's a good chance it will - it will be electorally insignificant.

 

[Hollis]

I don't think it is as in the bag as they think it is. Labour have 3 or 4 times as many members as the Tories so a lot more boots on the ground as it were, and I think the strength of their manifesto and the utter shiteness of the Tory one gives them something persuasive to go on. It also seems like the Tories have sank into complacency while Labour have been thinking hard and are running a pretty effective and clever campaign.

I reckon that the Tories massive lead is actually quite fragile, being largely dependent on May's personality. The Tory strategy seems to be "hide away and avoid making mistakes" in order to maintain their lead, but the utter shitness of the manifesto finally gives Labour a lot of ammunition to attack them with, which they seem to be doing quite effectively.

They may fall back on the smear campaign, but the smears have been so constant against Corbyn that they may not have much effect and it could just make the Tories look like the nasty cunts they are, relying on smear campaigns while Corbyn behaves like a gent and focuses on popular policies, compared to the Tories grand vision of taking food away from children and letting more pensioners freeze to death.

So far the Tories are by normal standards running an awful campaign, and Labour a good one. The fact you say the Tories are 'dependent on May's personality' is a sorry indictment of lots of things. If the working-class vote splits for the Tories I'm really struggling to understand why - is it really immigration/identity politics/loss of faith in the Labour party? I even think a lot of A/B/C voters should be enticed by the Labour manifesto
.
One thing, I think the media are playing into Labour's hands. Labour do seem to be playing some variation of the 'fake news' strategy well, and its making BBC journos seem trite and partisan.

 

[rutabowa]

I had my first door knock visit today, someone from the Workers Revolutionary Party... made quite a good case tbh

 

[J Ed]

Tom Mills: Bias at the BBC

There has scarcely been a time in the BBC’s 95-year history when it hasn’t faced accusations of political bias. But it has been decades since the criticisms emanated so strongly from the left. This is a consequence of the collapse of a centre ground which had long been the BBC’s political fulcrum. As the Labour Party shifted leftwards, attracting an unprecedented influx of new members, its MPs and party bureaucracy fought back. And since the BBC is deeply embedded in Westminster, and routinely defers to the consensus there in setting the parameters of political debate, its political reporting has been skewed against Jeremy Corbyn and his supporters.

When Theresa May called the general election, I expected the BBC to assume a more balanced position on Corbyn. First, because I expected more unity in the Labour Party; second, because general elections impose stricter regulatory requirements on broadcasters; and third, because the BBC – whatever you think of its political reporting – takes its democratic responsibilities seriously. But the early signs have not been promising.

Within hours of the prime minister’s surprise announcement, the Newsnight presenter Emily Maitlis was musing on Twitter whether there was time for Labour to ‘try and stage [a] coup against Corbyn’. Then the Today presenter (and former political editor) Nick Robinson tweeted that an anti-establishment speech from the Labour leader was ‘long on passion and short on details’, and called this the ‘story of [Corbyn’s] life’. He later said the comment was not intended negatively.

It may be unfair to seize on impromptu social media postings. As the BBC’s political editor, Laura Kuenssberg, says in her Twitter profile, tweets ‘don’t tell a whole story’. But they do fall under the BBC’s editorial policy, and are read by ‘opinion formers’. And it is hard not to see such cavalier remarks as suggestive of a broader editorial culture.

Kuenssberg was recently caught out using a Tory political slogan (‘more spending, more tax, more borrowing’) in the headline of her report on the Labour manifesto. The now defunct BBC Trust found that she breached accuracy and impartiality guidelines in her early reporting on Corbyn. Yet that ruling was dismissed by the BBC’s Director of News, James Harding, a former editor of the Times and a friend of George Osborne. ‘We disagree with this finding,’ he said. The corporation displayed a similar nonchalance in its response to a study by the Media Reform Coalition which found that during the post-referendum ‘coup’, BBC News gave far more airtime to Corbyn’s critics than ITV did

Jump you fuckers

 

[mx wcfc]

 

[jakethesnake]

Tom Mills: Bias at the BBC



Jump you fuckers

I'm proud not to pay a licence fee.

 

[billy_bob]

I had my first door knock visit today, someone from the Workers Revolutionary Party... made quite a good case tbh

I'd have been more impressed by their commitment if they'd kicked it in.

 

[Sue]

I had my first door knock visit today, someone from the Workers Revolutionary Party... made quite a good case tbh

Are you in Hackney South and Shoreditch?

 

[Dogsauce]

So far the Tories are by normal standards running an awful campaign, and Labour a good one.

Thing is, we don't know that - the Tories are likely to be using things like targeted Facebook ads and local publicity in marginals that a lot of us simply won't be seeing. We're not in that bubble, they know a lot of us would like to set them on fire so they won't waste time and money trying to reach us. The people they will reach and motivate are likely to get quite well-tailored material, and there's nothing those who oppose them can do to stand in the way of this or offer a counterpoint. It's how they got in last time, how Brexit was voted for etc. and is likely to be even more refined and effective due to lessons learnt from the successes of those campaigns.

 

[rutabowa]

Are you in Hackney South and Shoreditch?

Yep

 

[rutabowa]

I'd have been more impressed by their commitment if they'd kicked it in.

Jesus what is wrong with you?

 

[butchersapron]

Jesus what is wrong with you?

You know their rapist history?

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

John Harris (of the Graun) has been doing some YT shorts asking people in NotLondon about the election.

There was this bloke in Birmingham at a charity street kitchen. He seems to be mid 20s and ran out of money for food. He might be voting tory because his dad does (his mum votes labour tho - so it's 50/50 in that "my child can't afford to eat" sample). He said he doesn't know much about politics. If people knew about politics the tories would be fucked.

Another guy said "corbyn is a disaster" (a way older and more entrenched mantra meme than "strong and stable", people bought it from the off.)

He's voting conservative this time because Labour can't win. Harris looked at him with...well it's that double-take thing we're all getting used to having to do with Trump.

 

[redsquirrel]

Jesus what is wrong with you?

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

Thing is, we don't know that - the Tories are likely to be using things like targeted Facebook ads and local publicity in marginals that a lot of us simply won't be seeing. We're not in that bubble, they know a lot of us would like to set them on fire so they won't waste time and money trying to reach us. The people they will reach and motivate are likely to get quite well-tailored material, and there's nothing those who oppose them can do to stand in the way of this or offer a counterpoint. It's how they got in last time, how Brexit was voted for etc. and is likely to be even more refined and effective due to lessons learnt from the successes of those campaigns.

Yep, the tory campaign is also aimed at people who don't, for whatever reason, pay much attention. It's very simplistic indeed, which is why it can seem "worse". It's full of complete horseshit and doublethink too, but that stuff seems to be quite effective.

To paraphrase Lincoln, you only have to fool about 10% of people in marginals once every 4 or 5 years.

 

[rutabowa]

You know their rapist history?

No, I don't know... I typed the name in on here and nothing much came up about them. What's the story?

I'm not keen on jokes about kicking doors in

 

[butchersapron]

No, I don't know... I typed the name in on here and nothing much came up about them. What's the story?

I'm not keen on jokes about kicking doors in

This might fill you in.

Don't know why jokes like that might annoy you - it's what the WRP's entire schtick has been based on for 50s years - the fascist state is here and it's coming through your doors quite soon.

 

[redsquirrel]

No, I don't know... I typed the name in on here and nothing much came up about them. What's the story?

I'm not keen on jokes about kicking doors in

Their former leader Gerry Healy raped/sexually assaulted a number of women and the party covered it up/ignored it.

And billy_bob joke was surely just on the WRP door-knocking not an attack on you

 

[billy_bob]

It's a miracle they managed to make a good impression on someone, really.

 

[rutabowa]

Right I got wrong end of stick I see.
Anyway their leaflet says "vote wrp in the 5 constuencies we are standing! Vote labour in the rest!" and I had to let him down and say I was still voting labour but I can't find much in the wrp a4 sheet to disagree with.

 

[butchersapron]

You're not supposed to. It's to you draw you into the cult. You and they know they're not going to win the seat.

 

[rutabowa]

well, thanks for the heads up! I didn't buy a paper or let them in the house or anything,

 

[stethoscope]

The WRP are nuts. Not had great encounters with them.

 

[Raheem]

My fear with the WRP is that, if they hold the balance of power in a few weeks' time, they'll probably do a Nick Clegg.

 

[billy_bob]

My fear with the WRP is that, if they hold the balance of power in a few weeks' time, they'll probably do a Nick Clegg.

I think you can probably relax about the first half of that.

 

[Raheem]

I think you can probably relax about the first half of that.

Don't believe the polls. Remember how it was a last-minute thing with the Lib Dems? If they've been to every house in the country with a piece of paper that no-one disagrees with, they could be in with a real chance. Plus, it seems they've learnt from past campaigns not to kick people's doors in.

 

[rutabowa]

Don't believe the polls. If they've been to every house in the country with a piece of paper that no-one disagrees with, they could be in with a real chance. Plus, it seems they've learnt from past campaigns not to kick people's doors in.

Hmm

 

[rutabowa]

 

[butchersapron]

Couple of grand of Vanessa's money down the drain.