Russia to stop gas supplies to Europe (1/4/22)

[Pickman's model]

As long as that...?

It'll take some time for the slower among us to catch up

 

[The39thStep]

By the weekend we'll all be well versed in pipeline lore

Sudden rush of Twitter quotes beginning with ‘Now I’m no expert in gas pipelines but ....’

 

[Pickman's model]

Sudden rush of Twitter quotes beginning with ‘Now I’m no expert in gas pipelines but ....’

... I know what I like?

 

[IC3D]

By the weekend we'll all be well versed in pipeline lore

Promises, promises

 

[ska invita]

Part of the ruble's stabilisation is somewhat illusory iirc... I do not remember the details of this, and am not an econ type, but basically they used extreme measures aimed at forcing people to use it, and not to sell it off. So having more substantial trades (huge ones, let's face it) going through in rubles would still be of major benefit and allow them to relax various measures.

yes - somewhat illusory, but not totally unsuccessful

Analysis: Russia's rouble rebound not quite what it seems

Six weeks after Russia sent troops into Ukraine, the rouble has staged an apparently extraordinary recovery, but all is not what it seems and the exchange rate used in everyday transactions is sometimes very different to the official one.

www.reuters.com

It would undermine sanctions by bolstering the currency, the very reason Putin wants payments in roubles, and the correct response should be, as the Ukrainians would say, 'go fuck yourself!'

Were it as simple as a slogan. Poland is a poor country by european standards, Bulgaria poorer still - by which i mean large parts of their populations dont have a lot of money. Speaking briefly to a polish friend in poland before this cut-off announcement there is already deep pain being felt about energy prices there, including from recently made state-commitments to climate change agreements. These are countries with poor populations, many living in rural settings, and with bitterly cold winters. People will die from the cold, particularly the elderly.

Will not buying gas put some unbearable pressure on Putin and would paying in roubles really be that bad?No doubt European politicians are weighing up all that. The39thStep posted that other major EU countries had found an exchange loop hole so as to continue to be able to buy - I cant find the link now.

Not sure its worth discussing that much further...it is spring and a lot can and will happen between now and winter. But if Poland and or Bulgaria do end up paying for gas in roubles I wouldn't judge them for it.

 

[The39thStep]

yes - somewhat illusory, but not totally unsuccessful

Analysis: Russia's rouble rebound not quite what it seems

Six weeks after Russia sent troops into Ukraine, the rouble has staged an apparently extraordinary recovery, but all is not what it seems and the exchange rate used in everyday transactions is sometimes very different to the official one.

www.reuters.com

Were it as simple as a slogan. Poland is a poor country by european standards, Bulgaria poorer still - by which i mean large parts of their populations dont have a lot of money. Speaking briefly to a polish friend in poland before this cut-off announcement there is already deep pain being felt about energy prices there, including from recently made state-commitments to climate change agreements. These are countries with poor populations, many living in rural settings, and with bitterly cold winters. People will die from the cold, particularly the elderly.

Will not buying gas put some unbearable pressure on Putin and would paying in roubles really be that bad?No doubt European politicians are weighing up all that. The39thStep posted that other major EU countries had found an exchange loop hole so as to continue to be able to buy - I cant find the link now.

Not sure its worth discussing that much further...it is spring and a lot can and will happen between now and winter. But if Poland and or Bulgaria do end up paying for gas in roubles I wouldn't judge them for it.

Van Leyen has now come out and said to pay in roubles would be a breach of sanctions .

 

[nogojones]

Sudden rush of Twitter quotes beginning with ‘Now I’m no expert in gas pipelines but ....’

Talking to gas-safe friends, you can turn some meters around , but you have to remember to turn them back halfway between meter readings as you don't want your reading to be less than the last one. I can give Poland his number if they need.

 

[ska invita]

Van Leyen has now come out and said to pay in roubles would be a breach of sanctions .

may still be allowed though:

"The European Commission has said countries should not pay in roubles, and that complying with Russia’s request could breach EU sanctions. However, under Russia’s demands, payments would be made to Gazprombank in euros or dollars, before being converted. In theory, this would still breach sanctions. But last week the commission indicated contracts could be tweaked to make them compliant.

This could be good news for major economies such as Italy and Germany. The latter gets 60% of its gas from Russia and has said it will take a while to reduce that to zero."

....thats from today...???

 

[The39thStep]

may still be allowed though:

"The European Commission has said countries should not pay in roubles, and that complying with Russia’s request could breach EU sanctions. However, under Russia’s demands, payments would be made to Gazprombank in euros or dollars, before being converted. In theory, this would still breach sanctions. But last week the commission indicated contracts could be tweaked to make them compliant.

This could be good news for major economies such as Italy and Germany. The latter gets 60% of its gas from Russia and has said it will take a while to reduce that to zero."

....thats from today...???

That was the original loophole but this is what she said

 

[TopCat]

Some of Europe's largest gas importers preparing to pay in roubles – reports​

The Financial Times is currently leading with reports that some of Europe’s largest gas importers are preparing to acquiesce to Russian demands that energy must be paid for in roubles. The Russian move has been described as akin to “blackmail” by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

The Financial Times reports:

Some of Europe’s largest energy companies are preparing to use a new payment system for Russian gas demanded by the Kremlin, which critics say will undercut EU sanctions, threaten the bloc’s unity and deliver billions in cash to Russia’s economy.
Gas distributors in Germany, Austria, Hungary and Slovakia are planning to open rouble accounts at Gazprombank in Switzerland in order to satisfy a Russian requirement for payments in its own currency, according to people with knowledge of the preparations.
The groups include two of the single largest importers of Russian gas: Düsseldorf-based Uniper and Vienna-based OMV.

 

[cupid_stunt]

TBH it's all as clear as mud to me, and I am not the only one...

Italian officials said the commission’s guidelines on whether Gazprom’s payment scheme represented a breach of sanctions were ambiguous and did not give clarity to member states.

TopCat got there before me, here's the paywall busted Telegraph link - archive.ph

 

[TopCat]

Eh
"“Today, if we talk about gas volumes, we have enough. We consume less gas than is produced and even today gas is pumped into underground storage facilities,” Andriy Herus said on national television. “The same goes for electricity.”"

 

[maomao]

Eh
"“Today, if we talk about gas volumes, we have enough. We consume less gas than is produced and even today gas is pumped into underground storage facilities,” Andriy Herus said on national television. “The same goes for electricity.”"

I hope it's not the same underground storage facility. The sparks in the electricity could ignite the gas.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Eh
"“Today, if we talk about gas volumes, we have enough. We consume less gas than is produced and even today gas is pumped into underground storage facilities,” Andriy Herus said on national television. “The same goes for electricity.”"

Yeah, I read that earlier, I guess something went a miss in the translation.

 

[cupid_stunt]

It gets more confusing again.

The European Union will consider energy companies complying with Moscow’s requirement to open a second account, with Gazprombank in roubles, as a violation of sanctions against Russia, EU officials warned. The EU “cannot accept” that payments in euros for Russian gas are considered completed by Moscow only after they are converted into roubles, the official said.

The EU official said, "If companies pay in euros, they are not in breach of the sanctions. What we cannot accept is that companies are obliged to open a second account and that between the first and second account, the amount in euros is in the full hands of the Russian authorities and the Russian Central Bank, and that the payment is only complete when it is converted into roubles. Such a system was an “absolutely clear circumvention of the sanctions”, the official added.

There is “consensus on this from all member states, is that none is willing to pay” in roubles, a senior EU official said. LINK

 

[ska invita]

It gets more confusing again.

Sounds like a workaround fudge to me

 

[elbows]

BBC article that starts off by focussing on Uniper:

German energy giant Uniper gives in to Russian rouble demand

Uniper is preparing to buy Russian gas using a payment system that critics say will undermine EU sanctions.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[frogwoman]

 

[maomao]

Ukraine say they're cutting off the gas pipelines that run through their territory. I doubt they've only just thought of it so I suppose they've been waiting for the warm weather. Though it's as yet unclear how much disruption it will actually cause, Gazprom seem to be claiming they can reroute some of it. Better get insulating.

Russia-Ukraine war: Ukrainian gas operator says it will suspend Russian supply to Europe – live

GTSOU declares force majeure on Russian gas flows; Zelenskiy says Russians being pushed back

www.theguardian.com

 

[IC3D]

Will be interesting what Germany and co will think about this. Surely loosing a third of imports will send prices skyrocketing. Anyone have an idea why they've done it? Seems like bad PR for countries they are relying on.

 

[TopCat]

Will be interesting what Germany and co will think about this. Surely loosing a third of imports will send prices skyrocketing. Anyone have an idea why they've done it? Seems like bad PR for countries they are relying on.

I speculate it's to drag European countries into the conflict.

 

[gosub]

Russia cuts off electricity to Finland amid growing international tensions

Russia has cut off electricity to Finland on Saturday 'for the first time in over 20 years' amid a payment dispute.

www.foxbusiness.com

 

[yield]

Ukraine demands Germany cut or halt Nord Stream 1 gas flows
May 27, 2022

KYIV, May 27 (Reuters) - Ukraine's state gas company and gas infrastructure operator have issued a demand to the German government to either halt or severely curtail gas flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, the head of the gas system operator said on Friday.

"With Naftogaz we sent an appeal to the German economy ministry and the German regulator... on the suspension of Nord Stream 1," the head of Ukraine's gas system operator Serhiy Makogon told national television.

Ukraine is willing and able to provide an alternate transport route to the pipeline, which runs under the Baltic, he said.

Germany has already halted Russia's Nord Stream 2 gas project, which was designed to double gas shipments into Germany, as punishment for Russia's February invasion of Ukraine. The $11 billion project finished construction late last year but has never started.

Diverting shipments from the existing Nord Stream 1 pipeline might be a tough sell for Germany and the rest of Europe, analysts say.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Russia is cutting gas supplies to Holland.

Russia will cut off gas supplies to the Netherlands on Tuesday, the Dutch-backed trader GasTerra said on Monday after the company refused to pay supplier Gazprom in roubles, in the latest escalation of the energy payments row with the West.

Gazprom Export has demanded that European countries pay for Russian gas supplies in roubles because of sanctions imposed over Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Gazprom had already cut off gas to Finland, Poland and Bulgaria after they refused to comply with the new payment terms.

GasTerra, which buys and trades gas on behalf of the Dutch government, said in a statement that it had “anticipated” Russia’s moves to cut off gas and has bought “elsewhere” some of the 2 billion cubic meters of gas it had expected to receive from Gazprom through October.

Around 44% of Dutch energy usage is based on gas, but only about 15% of Dutch gas comes from Russia, according to government figures. The Dutch government earlier announced the country’s plans to stop using Russian fossil fuels by the end of the year.

European nations are divided over how to respond to Moscow’s demand that all payments for the gas should be made in the local currency. Germany and Italy have reportedly told their companies they could open rouble accounts to keep buying Russian gas without breaching sanctions.

LINK

 

[TopCat]

Is it a cliche? The Russians can just wait for winter and they win their wars? Not looking good for winter in Europe despite all the Western liberal bluster.

 

[agricola]

Is it a cliche? The Russians can just wait for winter and they win their wars? Not looking good for winter in Europe despite all the Western liberal bluster.

With a sensible rationing (ie: not the one the Germans came up with initially where industry was given the lowest priority) they should be able to deal with a shortage, but they needed to start getting alternate heating into vulnerable people's homes months ago.

 

[maomao]

Is it a cliche? The Russians can just wait for winter and they win their wars? Not looking good for winter in Europe despite all the Western liberal bluster.

The only way for Western liberal countries to deal with it is by abandoning liberalism for rationing and state intervention.

 

[TopCat]

Russia supplies 40% of the EU's natural gas and 27% of its oil imports, for which EU nations pay roughly €400bn (£341bn) a year.

 

[Duncan2]

On the bright side we shall all save some money if rationing next winter leads to the power being disconnected for much of the day/night

 

[TopCat]

On the bright side we shall all save some money if rationing next winter leads to the power being disconnected for much of the day/night

I'm imagining the EU Commissioner saying this....