Russia to stop gas supplies to Europe (1/4/22)

[The39thStep]

splitters

Interestingly enough Portugal gets a lot of gas from Nigeria and Algeria. Its hoping to expand the port of Sines to become a 'gateway for gas to Europe ' (as it said on the news) for gas imports from the States , Africa and Trinidad and Tobago .

 

[cupid_stunt]

Slovakia and Hungary, ruled by ultraconservatives, have already announced that they are willing to pay for Russian gas in rubles

Not a big surprise, Slovakia gets 100% of their gas from Russia, and sadly Hungary has just re-elected Orban, a chum of Putin.

 

[The39thStep]

Although the EU was extremely slow to move as one over vaccines, it did move quickly and reasonably effectively on agreeing on a range of sanctions with some exemptions. The gas issue is going to take longer though and is fraught with difficulties and whatever changes it makes will inevitably have to be long term rather than short term.

 

[Dogsauce]

Several of the Russian gas pipelines run through Ukraine. I guess if Zelensky wanted to reduce the amount of money Europe gives to Russia for gas he has the means to do something about it. Might piss off a few allies though.

 

[bluescreen]

Never mind gas, what about diesel? I understand that Russia and the 'stans supply most of Europe's diesel. Where are we/they going to get it from if the taps are turned off, and how will anything move? (Trucks, construction, agriculture, ships, local generators...) Home production is a tiny proportion of consumption.

Chart is from a 2018 paper https://www.fuelseurope.eu/wp-content/uploads/FuelsEurope-Statistical-Report-2018.pdf
Can someone on here who is knowledgeable about the industry (I am totally not) set my mind at rest?

 

[cupid_stunt]

Russia has cut off gas supplies to Poland, they seem to think they will be OK without those imports that represents 53% of their supplies, but it's not very clear how,they even say there will be no need to draw on reserves, at least in the short term.

They have also said supplies to Bulgaria will be cut, but it's not confirmed if that has happened yet, if they do, that would seem a major problem for Bulgaria as 90% of their gas comes from Russia.

Poland has said it "will manage" after Russia cut gas supplies to the country early on Wednesday, according to data.
Russian energy firm Gazprom had told Poland and Bulgaria it would stop supplying gas to "unfriendly" countries that refuse to pay in roubles.
Data from the European Union network of gas transmission operators shows that Poland's supply has now been cut.
Poland says it will get gas from other sources. It is not yet clear if Bulgaria's supplies have also been cut.
Both countries have refused to pay in roubles - the Russian currency.

Bulgaria, which relies on Gazprom for more than 90% of its gas supply, said it had taken steps to find alternative sources but no restrictions on gas consumption were currently required.
The country's energy ministry said Bulgaria had fulfilled its obligations under the current contract with Gazprom and made all required payments.
It added that the new payment system proposed by Russia was in breach of the existing contract.

BBC Link

 

[Dogsauce]

Putin will be hanging from a lamppost by late summer so they’ll be fine for next winter.

 

[TopCat]

Putin will be hanging from a lamppost by late summer so they’ll be fine for next winter.

In your dreams

 

[Pickman's model]

Putin will be hanging from a lamppost by late summer so they’ll be fine for next winter.

Mystic dogsauce

 

[IC3D]

Putin will be hanging from a lamppost by late summer so they’ll be fine for next winter.

The lampost will remain Putain free but turned off at midnight to save electricity.

 

[editor]

Russia has cut off gas supplies to Poland, they seem to think they will be OK without those imports that represents 53% of their supplies, but it's not very clear how,they even say there will be no need to draw on reserves, at least in the short term.

They have also said supplies to Bulgaria will be cut, but it's not confirmed if that has happened yet, if they do, that would seem a major problem for Bulgaria as 90% of their gas comes from Russia.




BBC Link

Really smart of Russia to be doing this as summer is on its way and the demand drops dramatically.

 

[Pickman's model]

Really smart of Russia to be doing this as summer is on its way and the demand drops dramatically.

That's the sort of shallow thinking I never thought to see from you being as while the demand drops reserves will be depleted and by the time it gets cold again there may well be a shortage of gas. Plus it ensures high gas prices throughout the summer

 

[frogwoman]

By the time it gets cold maybe theyll have secured other sources?

 

[maomao]

Rationing and demand management will be necessary. Though they will probably ship shitloads of gas from the US to ensure that the general principle of everyone being able to use as much energy as they can afford continues.

 

[Cid]

Rationing and demand management will be necessary. Though they will probably ship shitloads of gas from the US to ensure that the general principle of everyone being able to use as much energy as they can afford continues.

Well yes, but Germany has probably bagsied much of that, I mean we can't risk a contraction in the fine porcelain trade.

 

[MickiQ]

This appears to be a lot of things, trying to prop up the ruble by trying to force foreigners to buy the things, applying pressure on Europe and just generally throwing a tantrum. What the result will be (other than gas prices going through the roof) I don't know. Putin so far seems an even worse 4D chess player than Trump.
Notice he hasn't cut it off to Germany though.

 

[not-bono-ever]

Meh

 

[not-bono-ever]

Nn

 

[Pickman's model]

By the time it gets cold maybe theyll have secured other sources?

Poland and Bulgaria? I wonder if Putin will cut the gas to other countries one by one, as each cut will raise the price of gas and reduce the probability of countries down the list gaining a supply later on. Maybe there is enough elasticity to allow these two countries to arrange supplies for the autumn and winter. Will this be true of other countries? Will some of the countries who may have to find new supplies of gas be able to afford it?

 

[TopCat]

Will Poland and Bulgaria try to divert gas that is transiting their countries? If they do the transiting gas will likely be cut off. What countries get their gas via these two countries?

 

[TopCat]

Answering my own question.
"Gazprom has also said it would stop transiting gas through the two EU countries to others such as Germany if it discovered any withdrawal of volumes from pipelines.

“Bulgaria and Poland are transit states,” Gazprom said. “In the event of unauthorised withdrawal of Russian gas from transit volumes to third countries, supplies for transit will be reduced by this volume.”"

 

[MickiQ]

How will they know? presumably they are just pumping x million cubic metres of gas into the pipe, how can they tell if someone you shouldn't is tapping it off somewhere?
The Polish foreign minister was on the news this am saying they will take legal action which was interesting I can't imagine Russian courts will do anything other than agree with Putin (not that it matters) and any others he will just ignore.

 

[pesh]

i'm guessing they have a really big gas meter

 

[Dogsauce]

The lampost will remain Putain free but turned off at midnight to save electricity.

I look forward to the gas lit uplands

 

[TopCat]

The immediate consequence of Gazprom’s decision was a 20% rise in the wholesale gas price, driving it almost seven times higher than a year ago and hitting the pockets of consumers across the continent.

 

[ska invita]

Countries could just pay in roubles.... As it is the rouble hasnt collapsed (it's back where it was pre-war) so not a big difference in the scheme of things

??

 

[cupid_stunt]

Countries could just pay in roubles.... As it is the rouble hasnt collapsed (it's back where it was pre-war) so not a big difference in the scheme of things

??

It would undermine sanctions by bolstering the currency, the very reason Putin wants payments in roubles, and the correct response should be, as the Ukrainians would say, 'go fuck yourself!'

 

[Pickman's model]

How will they know? presumably they are just pumping x million cubic metres of gas into the pipe, how can they tell if someone you shouldn't is tapping it off somewhere?
The Polish foreign minister was on the news this am saying they will take legal action which was interesting I can't imagine Russian courts will do anything other than agree with Putin (not that it matters) and any others he will just ignore.

By the weekend we'll all be well versed in pipeline lore

 

[Cid]

Countries could just pay in roubles.... As it is the rouble hasnt collapsed (it's back where it was pre-war) so not a big difference in the scheme of things

??

Part of the ruble's stabilisation is somewhat illusory iirc... I do not remember the details of this, and am not an econ type, but basically they used extreme measures aimed at forcing people to use it, and not to sell it off. So having more substantial trades (huge ones, let's face it) going through in rubles would still be of major benefit and allow them to relax various measures.

 

[existentialist]

By the weekend we'll all be well versed in pipeline lore

As long as that...?