Personally I'll continue to enjoy the media circus, it's very entertaining and damaging to Johnson's brand, and I actually hope the numbers of letters don't reach 54 at this point, because the odds are he would win the vote by a large majority.
If I was a Tory MP, I would be waiting on next month's by-elections, I would be assuming that Wakefield would be lost to Labour, as it's a traditional Labour seat and the Tory majority in 2019 was just over 3k. But, Tiverton & Honiton is a very different beast, having been Tory since it was formed in 1997 and Parish had a massive majority of over 24k, if that goes it can't be brushed over as the result of mid-term blues. Even if they manage to hold it but with only a tiny majority, it would be a clear sign that Johnson is no longer an electoral asset, so someone else, indeed almost anyone else, could be better to take them into the next GE.
If the vote of no confidence came at that point, I think a lot less MPs would be willing to support Johnson, he could still win it, but with a lower majority than if it was held next week, causing even more trouble.
Having said that, I still think there's a chance that the magic 54 could be hit 'accidently' soon, I say 'accidently' as most media outlets have been reporting this isn't an organised rebellion, making it impossible for anyone to judge. According to the
Sky News spreadsheet the number of MPs that have publicly questioned the PM's future since he was fined has hit 39, not all have publicly said they have put letters in, most reports suggest over 20 and up to 26 have publicly stated they have.
When May had to face a vote of no confidence only half of the MPs that had submitted letters had actually publicly announced they had done so.
