In an interview with The Independent, Sir John pointed to the latest Opinium poll showing that 75 per cent of 2019 Conservative voters think Mr Johnson broke his own Covid rules – and 61 per cent of Tory voters do not believe he is telling the truth about parties.
“A high proportion of Tory voters believe he broke the rules and they don’t believe what he is saying – this is a real problem for him,” said Sir John. “The question becomes, what will they believe him on in future?”
The expert added: “Political parties can recover from electoral trouble. But leaders rarely recover, once a leader becomes very unpopular. It’s very difficult to reverse.
“So far, Boris Johnson is fighting a losing battle in persuading people that he did not break the rules … The art of rhetoric, at which he is brilliant, may not be sufficient to enable him to restore his reputation.”
Sir John said Mr Johnson’s appeal with voters had been badly damaged not only by stories about parties at No 10, but the PM’s own explanation that he thought he was attending a “work event” at the “bring your own booze” garden gathering in May 2020.
“We know from the Barnard Castle episode that people regard rule-breakers during a public health crisis with a great deal of moral disapprobation. The phrase ‘work event’ has entered the lexicon in the same way Barnard Castle did,” the polling expert said.
The most recent surveys by YouGov, Savanta ComRes and Ipsos MORI put Labour’s lead at between six and nine points respectively. Sir John said polling shows that the Tory vote in red wall seats has “plummeted by exactly the same proportion” as the rest of the country.