PM Boris Johnson - monster thread for a monster twat

[two sheds]

which when you take out the factors reduces to


but without getting the units right

 

[19force8]

Let's go back to basics...

Tell me - what are the units of R? (feel free to use either SI or imperial)

This is beyond my pay grade - in my day O level Maths didn't cover SI and imperial.

I was just pointing out what the government (who are led by the science) say it is.

 

[equationgirl]

View attachment 211941

which when you take out the factors reduces to
View attachment 211942

but without getting the units right

But without units it's like trying to add apples and spanners.

 

[2hats]

 

[19force8]

That equation makes no sense. The number of infections term will surely be much greater than the R term and therefore dominate.

Fucks sake, which genius came up with that?

Well yes and no.

Mathematically it is gibberish.

But looked at from a semiotic angle it's brutally clear:

1) We don't actually care enough to invent plausible bullshit;

2) We still have a 50% poll rating;

3) We can do this in the knowledge we won't be held to account;

4) You're fucked

 

[brogdale]

Well yes and no.

Mathematically it is gibberish.

But looked at from a semiotic angle it's brutally clear:

1) We don't actually care enough to invent plausible bullshit;

2) We still have a 50% poll rating;

3) We can do this in the knowledge we won't be held to account;

4) You're fucked

Best analysis I've yet seen of the Johnson's shitshow of a performance.

 

[equationgirl]

It's quite insulting really. At least put a tiny bit of effort into the bullshit.

 

[teqniq]

Timeline of Johnson's complete inadequacies wrt to Covid-19. When you see it laid out like that you have to wonder how on earth he in particular and the rest of the vermin in general are apparently so popular:

Thread by @imajsaclaimant: December 31st; China alerts WHO to new virus. January 23rd: Study reveals a third of China’s patients require intensive care. January 24th:…

Thread by @imajsaclaimant: December 31st; China alerts WHO to new virus. January 23rd: Study reveals a third of China’s patients require inteanuary 24th: Boris Johnson misses first Cobra meeting. January 29th: Boris Johnson misses second Cobra meeting. J…

threadreaderapp.com

 

[Deadstick 1944]

Timeline of Johnson's complete inadequacies wrt to Covid-19. When you see it laid out like that you have to wonder how on earth he in particular and the rest of the vermin in general are apparently so popular:

Thread by @imajsaclaimant: December 31st; China alerts WHO to new virus. January 23rd: Study reveals a third of China’s patients require intensive care. January 24th:…

Thread by @imajsaclaimant: December 31st; China alerts WHO to new virus. January 23rd: Study reveals a third of China’s patients require inteanuary 24th: Boris Johnson misses first Cobra meeting. January 29th: Boris Johnson misses second Cobra meeting. J…

threadreaderapp.com

In a word Propaganda.

 

[maomao]

Apparently a slim

Timeline of Johnson's complete inadequacies wrt to Covid-19. When you see it laid out like that you have to wonder how on earth he in particular and the rest of the vermin in general are apparently so popular:

Thread by @imajsaclaimant: December 31st; China alerts WHO to new virus. January 23rd: Study reveals a third of China’s patients require intensive care. January 24th:…

Thread by @imajsaclaimant: December 31st; China alerts WHO to new virus. January 23rd: Study reveals a third of China’s patients require inteanuary 24th: Boris Johnson misses first Cobra meeting. January 29th: Boris Johnson misses second Cobra meeting. J…

threadreaderapp.com

I think with regard to C19 they're getting an easy ride from a lot of people who didn't think it would amount to much themselves a few weeks ago (though of course they didn't skip five cobra meetings) As well as those who do think we should just get on with it and suck it up of whom there are plenty.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

That equation makes no sense. The number of infections term will surely be much greater than the R term and therefore dominate.

Fucks sake, which genius came up with that?

It kind of makes sense if there's a 'x' symbol instead of a '+'. That would indicate current level of problem combined with the rate of change of that problem. It would still be shit though cos you'd need to know both the R and Number of infections terms to make sense of the answer: eg is it 0.5 x 1,000,000 or 2 x 250,000. Two very different scenarios give the same answer: one with infections going sharply down, the other with infections going sharply up.

So no, actually thinking it through, it doesn't make sense even with a 'x'.

Plus of course we don't know 'R' or 'Number of infections'.

 

[equationgirl]

It kind of makes sense if there's a 'x' symbol instead of a '+'. That would indicate current level of problem combined with the rate of change of that problem. It would still be shit though cos you'd need to know both the R and Number of infections terms to make sense of the answer: eg is it 0.5 x 1,000,000 or 2 x 250,000. Two very different scenarios give the same answer: one with infections going sharply down, the other with infections going sharply up.

So no, actually thinking it through, it doesn't make sense even with a 'x'.

Plus of course we don't know 'R' or 'Number of infections'.

We do know that R should be around 1 but has been higher. Let's assume for the sake of argument it's a single digit.

The number of infections (total? Daily?) has been reported in the hundreds or thousands most of the time. So now we have this equation where we have a single digit number to a number in the hundreds or thousands. Which doesn't make any sense, as the larger number will dominate the equation.

So perhaps the number of infections is per 100,000 of population, which would make more sense, at least numerically as the numbers would be the same magnitude (or not too different).

 

[elbows]

This is what happens when words are turned into something that resembles an equation. But its a mock equation, it clearly doesnt work if you treat it like a proper equation.

The intended meaning is obviously that the alert level will be based on both R and the current number of infections, but they arent sharing the real detail with us, such as what weighting, bands or thresholds are used.

 

[planetgeli]

Look, this is coming out of the office of a man who has just employed a doubling sequence from 1 and somehow got to 36 so I wouldn't waste too much time racking your brains over it.

 

[equationgirl]

This is what happens when words are turned into something that resembles an equation. But its a mock equation, it clearly doesnt work if you treat it like a proper equation.

The intended meaning is obviously that the alert level will be based on both R and the current number of infections, but they arent sharing the real detail with us, such as what weighting, bands or thresholds are used.

You assume such details exist, of course...

 

[Lurdan]

This is what happens when words are turned into something that resembles an equation. But its a mock equation, it clearly doesnt work if you treat it like a proper equation.

 

[hash tag]

Bearing in mind he wasted an estimated £ 140 million as our dear mayor and is still wasting it, has anyone anywhere started a score board yet? Something like this would be fun

 

[elbows]

You assume such details exist, of course...

I expect there are parts of the system run by detail people who can only operate with detail. But then there are the political considerations, which also form part of such decisions, and thats where it can obviously become a totally murky black box.

Although I should also point out that the detail nerds sometimes end up lacking sufficient wiggle room and nuance when it comes to what phase of alert to put things in. Here is a classic example, from NERVTAG on 21st February. They were discussing whether the Public Health England risk levels should be raised from moderate to high:

Box

app.box.com

Some members commented that there may be sustained transmission outside of Mainland China. Others commented that there is plenty of scope for escalation in the UK and this would be an argument to keep the assessment as moderate rather than high at this time.

I read that as they didnt want to raise it to high because then when it got even worse later they wouldnt have anything further to raise it to

 

[elbows]

Just finishing up my thoughts on that topic, I must remember that the nerds involved in that system have a shiny new centre and acronym.

These quotes are from todays government document about the next steps:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/884171/FINAL_6.6637_CO_HMG_C19_Recovery_FINAL_110520_v2_WEB__1_.pdf

As the Government lifts restrictions over the coming months, the public must be confident action will be taken quickly to deal with any new local spikes in infections, and that nationally we have a clear picture of how the level of infections is changing. To achieve this, the Government is establishing a new biosecurity monitoring system, led by a new Joint Biosecurity Centre now being established.

Joint Biosecurity Centre (JBC)

The Government's new approach to biosecurity will bring together the UK’s world-leading epidemiological expertise and fuse it with the best analytical capability from across Government in an integrated approach.

The Centre will have an independent analytical function that will provide real time analysis and assessment of infection outbreaks at a community level, to enable rapid intervention before outbreaks grow. It will work closely with local partners and businesses to:

• collect a wide range of data to build a picture of COVID-19 infection rates across the country – from testing, environmental and workplace data to local infrastructure testing (e.g. swab tests);
• analyse that data to form a clear picture of changes in infection rates across the country, providing intelligence on both the overall national picture and, critically, potential community level spikes in infection rates; and
• advise the Chief Medical Officers of a change in the COVID-19 Alert level who will then advise Ministers.

Anyway there is more in the document but I've quoted too much already. Pages 37 and 38 for more.

I see they want to create the impression that its independent, to help with public confidence. Time will tell, there are usually dodgy feedback loops that allow independence to be eroded, and for 'other considerations' to muddy the science.

 

[Pickman's model]

Just finishing up my thoughts on that topic, I must remember that the nerds involved in that system have a shiny new centre and acronym.

These quotes are from todays government document about the next steps:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/884171/FINAL_6.6637_CO_HMG_C19_Recovery_FINAL_110520_v2_WEB__1_.pdf

Anyway there is more in the document but I've quoted too much already. Pages 37 and 38 for more.

I see they want to create the impression that its independent, to help with public confidence. Time will tell, there are usually dodgy feedback loops that allow independence to be eroded, and for 'other considerations' to muddy the science.

i think what they're saying, in summary, is more of the shame but with better pr

 

[Kryten1]

As the Boys from the Dwarf said "Step up to Red alert".It does mean changing the light bulb Sir.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

As the Boys from the Dwarf said "Step up to Red alert".It does mean changing the light bulb Sir.

Did you register specially to quote that line?

I admire the commitment.

 

[Kryten1]

Rome burned while Nero fiddled.Our economy is ruined.Bozza was an idiot listening to those "Yes Men".Thanks a bunch.Clowns.

 

[two sheds]

Which particular 'Yes men'?

 

[Kryten1]

Chris Whitty,Patrick Vallance,Neil Fergusson etc etc.Ccivil servants.Overpaid prima Donnas

 

[teqniq]

 

[Dogsauce]

This is what happens when words are turned into something that resembles an equation. But its a mock equation, it clearly doesnt work if you treat it like a proper equation.

The intended meaning is obviously that the alert level will be based on both R and the current number of infections, but they arent sharing the real detail with us, such as what weighting, bands or thresholds are used.

They‘re just presenting a statement as an equation to look ‘sciencey’ and like they know what they’re doing. Might as well stick an NHS logo up there too because everyone loves the NHS. It’s pathetic.

 

[stavros]

Grant Shapps on Today the other day refused to say outwardly that the cabinet had no idea what Johnson would say on Sunday, but the subtext was screaming out. Why bother even discussing something like that with yes-men and women, let alone Parliament?

 

[teqniq]

Heh.

 

[Pickman's model]

Heh.

a thinning of the parliamentary ranks by c19 would be no bad thing

and it would answer the question of whether Johnson has acquired coronavirus immunity