Looming Le Pen - French Election 2022

[Smokeandsteam]

I heard the left will support Le Pen in the second round against Macron. He will raise retirement age, slash benefits etc. Whereas she has toned down the racism and spoken up a welfare state. Pretty dire. Up Melenchon gets in.

You mean some voters who will support Melenchon today will switch to FN for the second phase?

Many of the strongest areas of support for Le Pen are from areas that once consistently voted SP/CP and were long the backbone of the organised working class in France. However, the French left parties long ago decided that they wanted to pursue a strategy of socialism without the working class. These areas and the people in them were written off as ‘backward’, ‘stupid’ and ‘racist’. Sound familiar?

We can now see how all this is working out as even the most cloth eared can hear the chickens begin to come home to roost. It’s something that some of us have been trying to get the British left to focus on (without much success: the received wisdom seems to be it’s the voters that need to change and not those seeking the votes…)

 

[stavros]

I did pay attention in 2012 and 2017, but I've forgotten: do candidates defeated in the first round usually come out backing one or the other of the two in the run-off?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

No surprises. Macron vs Le Pen it is according to exit polls.

Melenchon got a creditable 20%, but no cigar.

The old two parties polling under 10% between them. They've become an irrelevance.

How Melenchon supporters vote will to a great extent determine the second round result. He does best among the young, so I do expect the anti-Le Pen vote to hold out, but it could be close this time.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I did pay attention in 2012 and 2017, but I've forgotten: do candidates defeated in the first round usually come out backing one or the other of the two in the run-off?

Yes they do. Last time I remember Melenchon delaying somewhat and urging 'no votes for Le Pen' rather than outright endorsing Macron.

 

[belboid]

He was straight out with it today

We know who we will never vote for. We cannot give a vote to Mme Le Pen.

 

[stavros]

Yes they do. Last time I remember Melenchon delaying somewhat and urging 'no votes for Le Pen' rather than outright endorsing Macron.

Is Pécresse likely to back one or the other? She's right wing, but she's not FN/NR.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Melenchon live ATM has told his supporters, several times, not to give a single vote to Le Pen.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Is Pécresse likely to back one or the other? She's right wing, but she's not FN/NR.

Last time round, both the Gaullists and the Socialists endorsed Macron. I'd be surprised if they didn't do the same again. It's the 'save the Republic' line. But they only have 7% of the vote between them according to the exit polls.

 

[belboid]

Is Pécresse likely to back one or the other? She's right wing, but she's not FN/NR.

Already come out for macron, as have the green and sp candidates

 

[The39thStep]

Melenchon vote over 20%

 

[Ĝasper]

Would be fantastic if Melenchon came second tonight.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Would be fantastic if Melenchon came second tonight.

he didn't. The exit polls are never far off.

 

[The39thStep]

another exit poll

 

[littlebabyjesus]

That's going to piss me off if it's right. So close.

 

[killer b]

0.8 of a percent is pretty tight between melenchon & le pen huh. Margin of error tight. Probably no dice but...

 

[The39thStep]

God knows if this is right and it doesn't say which cities are in the 16% not counted

 

[littlebabyjesus]

0.8 of a percent is pretty tight between melenchon & le pen huh. Margin of error tight. Probably no dice but...

Yeah but it's an outlier among the polls. When you average out the polls, it's not so tight, sadly. Melenchon himself has accepted defeat.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Has a something of a feel of Britain 2017 about it. An older leader with genuinely l/w ideas, popular among the young, rallies late on and comes really close to an upset after looking down and out. But fails.

 

[redsquirrel]

The old two parties polling under 10% between them. They've become an irrelevance.

In the presidential, and probably parliamental, the Socialists and LR are still hanging on somewhat in the regional and departmental elections.
But this result is only going to keep things heading one way for them. Dreadful result for LR after where they were at the beginning of the year. I expect plenty of infighting there.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Pecresse did the equivalent of losing her deposit, except in this case that involves probably millions of euros of lost funding. Hey ho.

 

[belboid]

Fucking hell, Le pen just 1.4% ahead of Melenchon. What a fucker

e2a: under 1.2% in the end, 422,000 votes. Damn, that's harsh

 

[stavros]

I'm pleasantly surprised at how much press the French election is getting over here. We don't normally get much coverage of foreign elections, other than the US. I don't remember last year's German election getting anywhere near this coverage.

 

[belboid]

I'm pleasantly surprised at how much press the French election is getting over here. We don't normally get much coverage of foreign elections, other than the US. I don't remember last year's German election getting anywhere near this coverage.

There's a fascist who might win this one. I suspect that's what makes the difference.

 

[Louis MacNeice]

There's a fascist who might win this one. I suspect that's what makes the difference.

Yep but no one on the BBC dare call her a fascist. Not so funny that.

Cheers - Louis MacNeice

 

[ska invita]

There's a fascist who might win this one. I suspect that's what makes the difference.

whose pitch includes some kind of new union between a frexited france and a brexit britain

 

[Idris2002]

Just a reminder that it wasn't a French fascist government that built the Jungle in Calais. It was governments of the mainstream right, centre and centre-"left" that did that.

 

[teqniq]

Nasty:

 

[stavros]

Two way debate tomorrow night. I understand Macron wiped the floor with her in 2017, so it'll be interesting to see how she changes things this time.

 

[skyscraper101]

Is there an easy way to watch this in the UK?

 

[Sue]

Is there an easy way to watch this in the UK?

The last one is available here so imagine this one will be too:

Elections Européennes 2024 (information) | TF1+

Emission spéciale proposée par la Direction de l’Information. Présentée par Anne-Claire Coudray et Gilles Bouleau. Avec Adrien Gindre chef du service politique et Frédéric Dabi, directeur général opinion du groupe IFOP associé à Fiducial. Réalisée par Pierre-Dominique Trioulaire. Rendez-vous...

www.tf1.fr

You need an account -- not sure if it's free. You'll ge able to get it on one of the French TV/radio websites though.