Looming Le Pen - French Election 2022

[ska invita]

Ten days to go. I see most of the heavily promoted new right candidates seem to have fallen by the wayside. Macron obvs well ahead but it looks plausibly close between Le Pen & Melenchon for second. Le Pens support has been slipping away and Melenchon’s growing. Probably too late for him to narrow the gap even more tho / she was ahead 19-15 last I saw.

Still, we can hope.

macron wins whatever so kind of moot between Melenchon and Le Pen - though good to hear the general direction of travel. That said the far right vote is very split - add all those cunts up and its a lot of votes

 

[stavros]

Yes, I saw that Mélenchon's ratings had gone up, as Zemmour and Pécresse's had fallen.

I suppose if the second round (assuming there is one) is between Macron and Mélenchon then the latter could force the former leftwards. More probable is that Macron consolidates the votes from Le Pen, Zemmour, Pécresse, etc, who can't abide the slightest possibility of a (former) Socialist.

 

[redsquirrel]

Ten days to go. I see most of the heavily promoted new right candidates seem to have fallen by the wayside. Macron obvs well ahead but it looks plausibly close between Le Pen & Melenchon for second. Le Pens support has been slipping away and Melenchon’s growing. Probably too late for him to narrow the gap even more tho / she was ahead 19-15 last I saw.

How are you getting Le Pen's support slipping? Polling has it increasing, though probably at a slower rate than Melenchon.

I suppose if the second round (assuming there is one) is between Macron and Mélenchon then the latter could force the former leftwards. More probable is that Macron consolidates the votes from Le Pen, Zemmour, Pécresse, etc, who can't abide the slightest possibility of a (former) Socialist.

This seems mistaken to me on both points.
Mélénchon is not going to force Macron leftwards, Macron's whole play has been to double down on attacking workers rights. And much of the radical right is likely to be as or more antagonistic to Macron than they are to Mélénchon.
Whoever makes the final two I'd be very surprised if abstentions are not higher than in 2017

 

[belboid]

How are you getting Le Pen's support slipping? Polling has it increasing, though probably at a slower rate than Melenchon.

cos the last four weren't on there when I looked last night!

 

[stavros]

From a poll done yesterday:



They showed a Macron-Le Pen run-off poll too, which showed the former taking it 54:46.

 

[The39thStep]

No headbutt but a sterling effort

 

[The39thStep]

Some slight changes Fieldwork: 2-4 April 2022 Sample size: 2,793

 

[littlebabyjesus]

kinell

Le Pen + Zemmour = 31%

PS 2%!

Le Pen's association with Putin hasn't touched her as much as I thought it would.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Yes, I saw that Mélenchon's ratings had gone up, as Zemmour and Pécresse's had fallen.

I suppose if the second round (assuming there is one) is between Macron and Mélenchon then the latter could force the former leftwards. More probable is that Macron consolidates the votes from Le Pen, Zemmour, Pécresse, etc, who can't abide the slightest possibility of a (former) Socialist.

Is that how it would work? Mélenchon is pretty anti-EU, among other things. I don't think it's straightforward that Le Pen/Zemmour voters would switch to Macron over Mélenchon.

ETA: I would think there must be quite a few former Socialist Party voters among Le Pen/Zemmour voters.

 

[The39thStep]

kinell

Le Pen + Zemmour = 31%

PS 2%!

Le Pen's association with Putin hasn't touched her as much as I thought it would.

I was skimming through some articles yesterday and the media's focus was on her support for Putin . although she had edged back at bit. Her focus was on falling living standards for the working and lower-middle classes.

 

[Sue]

I was skimming through some articles yesterday and the media's focus was on her support for Putin . although she had edged back at bit. Her focus was on falling living standards for the working and lower-middle classes.

The FN have been making a big deal of the cost of living for a long time.

 

[The39thStep]

Reuters are reporting a Harris Poll that forecasts Le Pen on 48% in a second round. No idea of polling size or if any other poll shows same trend.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

The FN have been making a big deal of the cost of living for a long time.

That's why switching from Le Pen first round to Mélenchon second round may look like a wild swing, but in some important ways it isn't.

 

[Sue]

That's why switching from Le Pen first round to Mélenchon second round may look like a wild swing, but in some important ways it isn't.

Agreed. If Le Pen gets through to the second round though (as seems likely), the anti-FN vote will mobilise. IME people vote in round one for who they want, then in round 2 against who they don't want.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Agreed. If Le Pen gets through to the second round though (as seems likely), the anti-FN vote will mobilise. IME people vote in round one for who they want, then in round 2 against who they don't want.

Yep. Round 2 is pretty much always the clothes peg round for most people nowadays.

 

[Sue]

I was talking to a French friend about this last week. He probably would've voted Melenchon in the first round then Macron as the anti-Le Pen candidate in the second. Except Melenchon has been shit on Ukraine/Putin so he's at a bit of a loss. (Think Melenchon is maybe backpeddling a bit now.)

 

[Sue]

Yep. Round 2 is pretty much always the clothes peg round for most people nowadays.

Yep. I was living there during the 2002 election and found the 'vote for the crook not the fascist' slogan massively depressing.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Yep. I was living there during the 2002 election and found the 'vote for the crook not the fascist' slogan massively depressing.

I guess the closest UK equivalent would be a run-off between Johnson and Farage. Yeah, that would be hard.

Mind you, totally different system from the UK, but the end result of who gets into power has been remarkably similar over the last few decades really.

 

[redsquirrel]

Reuters are reporting a Harris Poll that forecasts Le Pen on 48% in a second round. No idea of polling size or if any other poll shows same trend.

Pretty much the same as shown by all polls since the start of April.

TBH I think polling is probably over emphasising Le Pen's support in the 2nd round (like it did in 2017), but I think that she will do a lot better than in 2017 (assuming she gets through, which seems likely).

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size
Ipsos-Sopra Steria	2–5 Apr 2022	1,719	54%	46%
OpinionWay-Kéa	2–5 Apr 2022	1,777	53%	47%
Ifop-Fiducial	1–5 Apr 2022	3,008	53%	47%
Harris-Interactive	1–4 Apr 2022	2,531	51.5%	48.5%
OpinionWay-Kéa	1–4 Apr 2022	1,666	53%	47%
Ipsos-Sopra Steria	1–4 Apr 2022	1,687	54%	46%
Ifop-Fiducial	31 Mar–4 Apr 2022	3,008	53%	47%
Ipsos-Sopra Steria	30 Mar–2 Apr 2022	1,963	53%	47%
Ifop	31 Mar–1 Apr 2022	1,405	53%	47%
Elabe	31 Mar–1 Apr 2022	1,377	53%	47%
OpinionWay-Kéa	29 Mar–1 Apr 2022	1,576	55%	45%
Ipsos-Sopra Steria	29 Mar–1 Apr 2022	1,708	54%	46%
Ifop-Fiducial	29 Mar–1 Apr 2022	2,994	53.5%	46.5%

 

[emanymton]

I was talking to a French friend about this last week. He probably would've voted Melenchon in the first round then Macron as the anti-Le Pen candidate in the second. Except Melenchon has been shit on Ukraine/Putin so he's at a bit of a loss. (Think Melenchon is maybe backpeddling a bit now.)

Did he say in what way he has been shit on Ukraine?

 

[Sue]

Did he say in what way he has been shit on Ukraine?

Apparently he supported Putin's 'annexing' of Crimea and has generally been supportive of Putin until v recently.

Mélenchon surges in the polls despite fiery remarks on Ukraine in the past

CHRONIQUE. The leftist candidate is subtly trying to rebalance the hostile statements he made against Kyiv. Gilles Paris, a Le Monde columnist, takes a look at the many obstacles that stand in his way to the second round.

www.lemonde.fr

 

[emanymton]

Apparently he supported Putin's 'annexing' of Crimea and has generally been supportive of Putin until v recently.

Mélenchon surges in the polls despite fiery remarks on Ukraine in the past

CHRONIQUE. The leftist candidate is subtly trying to rebalance the hostile statements he made against Kyiv. Gilles Paris, a Le Monde columnist, takes a look at the many obstacles that stand in his way to the second round.

www.lemonde.fr

Wow so not just a bit weal on it then.

 

[redsquirrel]

Some polling broken down by age. Le Pen leads over Macron in every age group but the over 64s (though negligibly in under 25s), though with Mélenchon leading in the youngest age group

Age	Macron	Le Pen	Mélenchon
18-24	22.9	23.0	28.7
25-34	18.1	30.5	23.0
35-49	22.6	27.2	22.8
50-64	23.4	26.6	16.6
65+	36.7	15.5	10.1

 

[redsquirrel]

Not a bad summary of the background to the strategy of RN / Le Pen's in Jacobin

Inspired by Donald Trump’s unexpected breakthrough in 2016 and influenced by her then right-hand man, Florian Philippot, Le Pen fully embraced the populist style in her 2017 campaign. To be clear, here populism is not understood as inherently reactionary or grounded in any specific ideological content, like the nationalism with which it is too often conflated.

However, what most notably distinguished Le Pen’s 2017 bid from her previous campaign was its populist framing, with her nationalist agenda entirely recast as a struggle by the people against an unresponsive elite. From her campaign’s motto, “In the name of the people,” to the antiestablishment rhetoric in her campaign advertisement, Le Pen’s campaign heavily played on this antagonism to develop the image of a relatable outsider that would defend the people by changing the status quo.

Proponents of this line argued that the only path to success was to explode the “republican dam” between mainstream conservatives and the far right. In other words, rather than the populist promise to go beyond Left and Right, the FN should pursue “the union of the right wings” by reconciling the mainstream-conservative LR with the FN to create a united family of “patriots.” During the 2017 campaign, Le Pen described such an aspiration as a “fantasy,” but her disappointing second-round performance merely fueled her critics’ argument.

Ideologically speaking, she further accentuated her “de-demonization” strategy by developing two complementary tactics: mainstreaming her program and accentuating the populist framing of her politics as a struggle for the people beyond the Left/Right cleavage. To do so, she first removed several of the most controversial measures in her 2017 program, most notably the departure from the European Union, exiting the Schengen Area or returning to a national currency.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I am fairly sure Macron will still win, but this poll is scary, combined with the possibly of record low turn-out.

But while Macron was still slightly ahead in opinion polls, his re-election no longer appeared to be a foregone conclusion on Friday with Le Pen climbing in surveys, some of them putting her within the margin of error.

A poll on Friday showed the tightest gap ever, with Le Pen seen winning 49% of votes in a likely runoff against the president, her best polling score on record.

The poll, published on BFM TV's website, showed that Macron had lost a further two points at 26% support and Le Pen had gained two points to 25%.

France's Macron makes last-minute appeal to voters as Le Pen reaches all-time high in poll

French President Emmanuel Macron on Friday appealed to younger, progressive-leaning voters in his last scheduled interview before Sunday's first-round presidential vote while his forecast lead over far-right candidate Marine Le Pen further evaporated.

www.reuters.com

 

[Smokeandsteam]

I am fairly sure Macron will still win, but this poll is scary, combined with the possibly of record low turn-out.

More inevitable than ‘scary’. All of the conditions that prevailed at the point of the last election in France remain - and remain more sharply - falling living standards, precarity, rising poverty, the ongoing peripheralisation of deindustrialised and non city places and a generalised sense of permacrisis in late capitalist economies.

France, Hungry, the forthcoming US Mid term elections will remind us that the reassertion of the legitimacy of elite liberalism attempted after Biden’s win was always a mirage and build on sand. As the cost of living crisis deepens, as people become poorer and their lives continue to go backwards and as the left continues its spiral into irrelevance, the fact that useless and obnoxious centrists like Macron can still cobble together enough ‘hold your nose’ votes to win might soon be looked at as ‘halcyon days’…put another way, look at the voting intention of the under 30’s and think about where France is likely to be next time.

 

[ska invita]

’…put another way, look at the voting intention of the under 30’s and think about where France is likely to be next time.

yes i read yesterday that there was a yougov poll that showed that under 30s were majority supporting le pen but i couldnt find it - can anyone else?

 

[ffsear]

Betfair says....

 

[brogdale]

Turn-out sluggish by all accounts.

e2a mate of mine who votes at the Embassy had to wait 3 hours last time around; this year...straight in, no waiting.

 

[Ĝasper]

I heard the left will support Le Pen in the second round against Macron. He will raise retirement age, slash benefits etc. Whereas she has toned down the racism and spoken up a welfare state. Pretty dire. Up Melenchon gets in.