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Israel and hezbollah after the exploding pagers

Netanyahu is doing something right. His and his parties popularity has increased with attack on Lebanon






I do feel Netanyahu is underestimated. Also Likud his party still gets a lot of support.

I sometimes wonder if part of Netanyahu's willingness to bomb neighbouring states is because he knows he needs the support of the hawks among the electorate in order for Likud to remain in power.
 
This can't just be reduced to some kind of realpolitik where proxies are chessboard pieces in a game of competing powers

The underlying reason for the ongoing conflict is Israel dispossession of Palestinians of their land.

And also Palestinians refusal to accept their lot.

Even if cynical power politics is in play regime's across middle east have to take in account the feelings of those they rule when it comes to Palestine. At least in part.

Pre Hamas attack the "normalisation" process looked like it was going to succeed. The losers would be the Palestinian people.

Effectively sidelined whilst Israel kept Gaza as open prison and incrementally ethnically cleansed Palestine in West Bank.
 
UN rapporteurs view of pager attack.

Notice it's a collective statement. The UN rapporteur for the Occupied Territories has been getting a lot of stick recently for being critical of Israel. So good to see other rapporteurs back her up.


Such attacks require prompt, independent investigation to establish the truth and enable accountability for the crime of murder

And as I've posted before imo part of pager attack was to terrorise the population. Rapporteurs say this,
It is also a war crime to commit violence intended to spread terror among civilians, including to intimidate or deter them from supporting an adversary,” the experts warned. “A climate of fear now pervades everyday life in Lebanon,” they said.
 
This analyst was on radio 4 just now. Checked him out and is credible academic.



Here he argues that Netanyahu hasn't succeeded in total victory in Gaza. So now turned to Lebanon.

US and western allies from the start urged him not to do this. He's ploughed ahead anyway.

This analyst thinks Netanyahu wants a forever war. The assassination of head of Hezbollah when US and other western allies were trying to get a truce shows this in Gerges opinion.

So , need to give this another look, this analyst doesn't think this is rational action in sense of long term aims. That of getting Israel citizens back living in north of Israel.

Btw his book looks interesting.


Not sure if this is right thread for this post
 
I'm not convinced by the "US diplomacy humiliated" line.... The US play good cop and achieve their own objectives as carried out by Israel and are seen as having tried their best. This is far from their best, it's a token minimum in fact
 
This can't just be reduced to some kind of realpolitik where proxies are chessboard pieces in a game of competing powers

The underlying reason for the ongoing conflict is Israel dispossession of Palestinians of their land.

And also Palestinians refusal to accept their lot.

Even if cynical power politics is in play regime's across middle east have to take in account the feelings of those they rule when it comes to Palestine. At least in part.

Pre Hamas attack the "normalisation" process looked like it was going to succeed. The losers would be the Palestinian people.

Effectively sidelined whilst Israel kept Gaza as open prison and incrementally ethnically cleansed Palestine in West Bank.
It's clear that a significant and influential number of Israelis, ie the settler communities and the more extreme politicians, won't be satisfied until all of the occupied Palestinian territories are subsumed into Israel. And they don't really care about the human cost, among the Palestinians or their Israeli compatriots.
 
I was looking up proscribed groups - Hamas and Hezbollah military wings are by UK government.


The definition UK government uses could be applied to Israel with its actions over last year came up I'm my search

What is meant by ‘terrorism’ in the proscription context?
“Terrorism” as defined in the act, means the use or threat of action which: involves serious violence against a person; involves serious damage to property; endangers a person’s life (other than that of the person committing the act); creates a serious risk to the health or safety of the public or section of the public or is designed seriously to interfere with or seriously to disrupt an electronic system.

The use or threat of such action must be designed to influence the government or an international governmental organisation or to intimidate the public or a section of the public, and must be undertaken for the purpose of advancing a political, religious, racial or ideological cause.

Serious damage to property ( Gaza destruction of housing / educational establishments and other infrastructure)

Endangers persons life other than the person committing act. ( On numerous occasions in Gaza / West Bank and now Lebanon)

Serious risk to health and safety of Public ( destruction of hospital equipment in Gaza and much more)

Disrupting electronic equipment ( pager attack)

According to our UK government definition Israel has a case to answer here

Use or threat of action to influence or intimidate ( IDF tactic the Dahiya Doctrine. Threaten to bomb Lebanon I've already posted about )


My reading of the government definition and this counts as terrorism
 
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I was looking up proscribed groups - Hamas and Hezbollah military wings are by UK government.


The definition UK government uses could be applied to Israel with its actions over last year came up I'm my search





Serious damage to property ( Gaza destruction of housing / educational establishments and other infrastructure)

Endangers persons life other than the person committing act. ( On numerous occasions in Gaza / West Bank and now Lebanon)

Serious risk to health and safety of Public ( destruction of hospital equipment in Gaza and much more)

Disrupting electronic equipment ( pager attack)

According to our UK government definition Israel has a case to answer here

Use or threat of action to influence or intimidate ( IDF tactic the Dahiya Doctrine. Threaten to bomb Lebanon I've already posted about )


My reading of the government definition and this counts as terrorism
However, it refers to "organisations" and not "states". A state has a licence to kill.
 
However, it refers to "organisations" and not "states". A state has a licence to kill.

I know. Just showing that the same definition could be applied to Israel government in its actions over last year.

I would have thought the politicians and their parties who support them in present Israeli government could come under the same definitions of terrorism as the armed wings of Hamas and Hezbollah

Not having a go at you here btw
 
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There are some hardline Zionist parties in the present Israeli government who could imo due to actions and what they have been saying be proscribed.

I now it sounds daft.

But might make some of the cheerleaders in this country for Israel think twice about what they say.
 
I know know its not going to happen. Its looking at definition and applying it in way that , of course , one isn't supposed to . As that's not how the system works.
 
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I know. Just showing that the same definition could be applied to Israel government in its actions over last year.

I would have thought the politicians and their parties who support them in present Israeli government could come under the same definitions of terrorism as the armed wings of Hamas and Hezbollah
Well, no, because the government is the civilian wing of the State of Israel. To be equivalent, it would have to be the IDF.
Are the civilian wings of Hamas and Hezbollah not defined as "terrorist" by the UK?
 
Well, no, because the government is the civilian wing of the State of Israel. To be equivalent, it would have to be the IDF.
Are the civilian wings of Hamas and Hezbollah not defined as "terrorist" by the UK?

As far as I can gather all of Hamas and Hezbollah is proscribed. Any support shown at demos for them is heavily policed.

I'm saying this official government definition could be applied to Israel state at this time.

TBF UK does ban some of the settlers.


But reading this definition and theoretically the definition of terrorism could be applied to present Israeli government.
 
There are some hardline Zionist parties in the present Israeli government who could imo due to actions and what they have been saying be proscribed.

I now it sounds daft.

But might make some of the cheerleaders in this country for Israel think twice about what they say.
There are some hard-line people in the present UK govt who imo could be proscribed due to what they've said eg keir starmer with his comments about the zionists having the right to starve gaza
 
I'm not convinced by the "US diplomacy humiliated" line.... The US play good cop and achieve their own objectives as carried out by Israel and are seen as having tried their best. This is far from their best, it's a token minimum in fact

Fair comment.

On my post Professor Fawaz Gerges summarise his arguments here in short LSE video Six minutes about his recent book

He basically argues that the middle east had liberal secular politicians who were nationalist and US ( and UK) got rid of them for their own policy interest. The end result being where middle east is now.

There was an alternative future where liberal nationalist politics grew roots and furthered a progressive development of the middle east.

Based on self determination. This links to Palestinians having right to self determination.

(Adding to this the British and French were no better in Mandate period in my opinion from reading A Line in the Sand.)

Gerges is putting argument that Western intervention has made things worse. Pretty well agree with this.

 
There are some hardline Zionist parties in the present Israeli government who could imo due to actions and what they have been saying be proscribed.

I now it sounds daft.

But might make some of the cheerleaders in this country for Israel think twice about what they say.

Otzma Yehudit especially, they both have the clear links to a still-banned group and are actively engaged in criminal activity in the occupied territories.
 
Israel 'on the verge' of Lebanon ground invasion, says US diplomat
28 September 2024
A US diplomat in the region briefed by Israeli officials has told Middle East Eye that Israel is "on the verge of launching a ground invasion of Lebanon."

"They are saying that a ground invasion is necessary not just to return Israelis to the north, but to stop Tel Aviv from being struck," the diplomat added.
Meanwhile Frank Lowenstein, a former special envoy for Israeli-Palestinian negotiations in the Obama administration, told MEE that the Biden administration probably hopes that Israel's bombing on Hezbollah will get the group to delink itself from Hamas in Gaza.

"When it became clear that there was not going to be a ceasefire in Gaza or Lebanon, the best the Biden administration could hope for was for Israel to destroy as much of Hezbollah’s military capability as possible from air," Lowenstein said.

Since the far right are in government in Israel,

Analysis | 'Lebanon, Part of the Promised Land': Israel's Messianic Right Wing Targets New Territory for Settlements
Haaretz | Israel News. Jun 18, 2024 https://archive.ph/ELuQ0
Before you dismiss the religious messianists who held a small online conference on Monday with their eyes set on reclaiming 'God's Promised Land,' remember that their plans for West Bank settlement seemed equally outlandish 50 years ago

Is Lebanon part of Israel’s promised territory?
Jerusalem Post SEPTEMBER 25, 2024 (This article has been deleted, but is on waybackmachine.)
The River Perat, commonly identified with the Euphrates River, is situated in the Middle East. It flows through several countries, including Turkey, Syria, and Iraq, before emptying into the Persian Gulf. In biblical contexts, the Euphrates River is often mentioned as a significant boundary in the promises made to the Jewish people regarding the Land of Israel.

If one looks at a map, they will be astounded by how far north this river extends and how vast the Land of Israel truly is. While we may not be able to reclaim all of it in our time, Hashem will surely return it to us soon.
 
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Israel 'on the verge' of Lebanon ground invasion, says US diplomat
28 September 2024



Since the far right are in government in Israel,

Analysis | 'Lebanon, Part of the Promised Land': Israel's Messianic Right Wing Targets New Territory for Settlements
Haaretz | Israel News. Jun 18, 2024


Is Lebanon part of Israel’s promised territory?
Jerusalem Post SEPTEMBER 25, 2024 (This article has been deleted, but is on waybackmachine.)

"Protecting the citizens of the north" certainly implies that they will try to take and hold ground, but even with the current state of affairs I could not believe that the Israeli state would try to settle it - it would almost certainly provoke a regional military reaction (in genuine self-defence) and would probably cut off all diplomatic support from everyone apart from the US.
 
The Israeli strike, to my mind, just shows that Israel has succumbed to the delusion that mediagenic strikes on individual targets can win a war. Hezbollah has had backup leadership in place all along, and in the real world, as distinct from Hollywood fantasy, the death of the other side’s leader doesn’t end the struggle, any more than FDR’s death led to an Allied defeat in the Second World War. Also, of course, a religious movement that honours martyrdom isn’t exactly going to be discouraged by more martyrs!
 
"Protecting the citizens of the north" certainly implies that they will try to take and hold ground, but even with the current state of affairs I could not believe that the Israeli state would try to settle it - it would almost certainly provoke a regional military reaction (in genuine self-defence) and would probably cut off all diplomatic support from everyone apart from the US.
Which countries would you expect to be involved in the regional military reaction? Apart from Iran. Jordan, Egypt, Syria, Iraq? Turkey or Saudi Arabia?

They've not been provoked by the plight of the Palestinians.
 
Which countries would you expect to be involved in the regional military reaction? Apart from Iran. Jordan, Egypt, Syria, Iraq? Turkey or Saudi Arabia?

They've not been provoked by the plight of the Palestinians.

They've not, but the idea of a greater Israel (as described in that JP article you linked to) directly threatens all of those countries. If its suggested that is actual policy it would probably trigger a response relatively quickly.
 
I'm not convinced by the "US diplomacy humiliated" line.... The US play good cop and achieve their own objectives as carried out by Israel and are seen as having tried their best. This is far from their best, it's a token minimum in fact
Yes the blood is covering US and UK hands
 
I think Biden will mainly be remembered for his catastrophically useless failure regarding Israel and the Middle East.

That said, as anyone with a decent memory will remember, Hizbullah played a key role in the crushing of the Syrian Revolution and I am glad on a personal level to see its cunty leaders blown to pieces.
 
The Israeli strike, to my mind, just shows that Israel has succumbed to the delusion that mediagenic strikes on individual targets can win a war. Hezbollah has had backup leadership in place all along, and in the real world, as distinct from Hollywood fantasy, the death of the other side’s leader doesn’t end the struggle, any more than FDR’s death led to an Allied defeat in the Second World War. Also, of course, a religious movement that honours martyrdom isn’t exactly going to be discouraged by more martyrs!

Or they are looking at it through the lens of what they did to Egypt that forced Sadat into an eventual peace deal.
I'll not be shocked if Israel decides to attack Iranian infrastructure (it's in terrible shape) and leading figures in the regime. It won't take much
to plunge Iran into chaos. Cut off Hamas and Hezbollah from Iran will be the logic, so they can finish them off at
their leisure.
 
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