How dangerous is the current situation?

[RD2003]

Now that it is being speculated that Russia is scaling back its ambitions-not that they were clear in the first place, at least to us mere plebs, what can we expect to follow?

Although NATO and its individual components are, sensibly and mercifully, still holding back from committing to anything more than weapons supply and, relying on short-term memories, generally straining to look like the all-time good guys, I still fear that the prevailing appearance of a stalemate (strategically speaking) may be the lull before the storm. Russia might be trying to appear like it is saving face by declaring victory and halting further operations while biding its time until further assaults. If a renewed assault does come, will level heads in the west continue to prevail?

What is the meaning of the contradictory information we're being fed? On the one hand we have pushed at us the idea that Putin (suddenly the embodiment of the entire Russian elite-a feat not achieved even by Stalin in the much more controllable Soviet era- will not stop with Ukraine, and on the other that which says Russia is evidently too weak and dilapidated to even take Ukraine? Which is it to be?

How seriously should we take the notion that Russia, presumably isolated in every conceivable way for the forseeable future, may go for a scorched earth policy in relation to Europe or the west as a whole?

What is the potential for things to spiral out of control?

And when do we start to consider the role of the arms industry in both the expansionist project of NATO and the current, in my opinion wholly avoidable and tragic war? Where does this war fit into the general direction in which the world is heading?

 

[Pickman's model]

Now that it is being speculated that Russia is scaling back its ambitions-not that they were clear in the first place, at least to us mere plebs, what can we expect to follow?

Although NATO and its individual components are, sensibly and mercifully, still holding back from committing to anything more than weapons supply and, relying on short-term memories, generally straining to look like the all-time good guys, I still fear that the prevailing appearance of a stalemate (strategically speaking) may be the lull before the storm. Russia might be trying to appear like it is saving face by declaring victory and halting further operations while biding its time until further assaults. If a renewed assault does come, will level heads in the west continue to prevail?

What is the meaning of the contradictory information we're being fed? On the one hand we have pushed at us the idea that Putin (suddenly the embodiment of the entire Russian elite-a feat not achieved even by Stalin in the Soviet era) will not stop with Ukraine, and on the other that which says Russia is evidently too weak and dilapidated to even take Ukraine? Which is it to be?

How seriously should we take the notion that Russia, presumably isolated in every conceivable way for the forseeable future, may go for a scorched earth policy in relation to Europe or the west as a whole?

What is the potential for things to spiral out of control?

And when do we start to consider the role of the arms industry in both the expansionist project of NATO and the current, in my opinion wholly avoidable and tragic war? Where does this war fit into the general direction in which the world is heading?

In answer to your first question you can expect the unexpected and in answer to the question in the title, very

 

[RD2003]

In answer to your first question you can expect the unexpected and in answer to the question in the title, very

All my life, at least since I was old enough to learn/think about it, I always wondered what it must have been like to live through the Cuban missile crisis. To those of us who grew up in the Carter/ Reagan/ Brezhnev/ his successors era, it was still almost unimaginable despite everything that happened then.

Until now, when we're too fucking old for it. Can't we be left to just decline in fucking peace? I've just bought a nice little bungalow, for fuck's sake.

 

[Ax^]

Although NATO and its individual components are, sensibly and mercifully, still holding back from committing to anything more than weapons supply and, relying on short-term memories, generally straining to look like the all-time good guys, I still fear that the prevailing appearance of a stalemate (strategically speaking) may be the lull before the storm. Russia might be trying to appear like it is saving face by declaring victory and halting further operations while biding its time until further assaults. If a renewed assault does come, will level heads in the west continue to prevail?

What is the meaning of the contradictory information we're being fed? On the one hand we have pushed at us the idea that Putin (suddenly the embodiment of the entire Russian elite-a feat not achieved even by Stalin in the much more controllable Soviet era- will not stop with Ukraine, and on the other that which says Russia is evidently too weak and dilapidated to even take Ukraine? Which is it to be?

How seriously should we take the notion that Russia, presumably isolated in every conceivable way for the forseeable future, may go for a scorched earth policy in relation to Europe or the west as a whole?

What is the potential for things to spiral out of control?

And when do we start to consider the role of the arms industry in both the expansionist project of NATO and the current, in my opinion wholly avoidable and tragic war? Where does this war fit into the general direction in which the world is heading?

*shakes fist at dobby

 

[Dogsauce]

There’s that paradox of wanting Putin to get a bloody nose, and the knowledge that anything big and humiliating like losing a prestigious ship in the Black Sea is likely to provoke vicious retribution - the ‘west’ has done the latter enough times like firing off a volley of cruise missiles at somewhere in response to a minor attack or terror incident, so can’t really expect Putin to behave in a more level-headed way. That’s the fuckedupness of where we’re at - Russian can’t win but won‘t lose.

 

[NoXion]

What is the meaning of the contradictory information we're being fed? On the one hand we have pushed at us the idea that Putin (suddenly the embodiment of the entire Russian elite-a feat not achieved even by Stalin in the much more controllable Soviet era- will not stop with Ukraine, and on the other that which says Russia is evidently too weak and dilapidated to even take Ukraine? Which is it to be?

Russia having ambitions beyond Ukraine is not just something we're "being fed", presumably by those tricksy NATO propagandists or whatever. Or did you not notice the Greater Germany Russia bullshit that Putin's been coming out with?

Of course, whether Russia is able to meaningfully achieve such ambitions is another question entirely, and I don't think any serious analysts think that's likely any time soon. I think it's obvious by this point that Russia is struggling just to take Ukraine, never mind the Baltic areas, Finland, or any other place like that.

 

[gosub]

Russia outlines four reasons it would use nuclear weapons

Dmitry Medvedev, who served a President of Russia from 2008 to 2012, listed the four scenarios in which Russia would launch their nuclear arsenal

uk.news.yahoo.com

Well that's good news, nothing (yrt) about purity of essence or floride

 

[Aladdin]

Russian TV simulates nuke attack off coast of Ireland that would destroy country

"Such a barrage alone also carries extreme doses of radiation. Having passed over the British Isles, it will turn what might be left of them into a radioactive desert"

www.irishmirror.ie

Looks like it could become pretty dangerous for the UK & Ireland

 

[spitfire]

Russian TV simulates nuke attack off coast of Ireland that would destroy country

"Such a barrage alone also carries extreme doses of radiation. Having passed over the British Isles, it will turn what might be left of them into a radioactive desert"

www.irishmirror.ie

Looks like it could become pretty dangerous for the UK & Ireland

As steeplejack said on the other thread, it's science fiction. Don't sweat it.

 

[platinumsage]

Until now, when we're too fucking old for it. Can't we be left to just decline in fucking peace? I've just bought a nice little bungalow, for fuck's sake.

Turn the news off and stop worrying about things you can’t influence.