Hartlepool by-election

[The39thStep]

There is no sign in my area (central London) that people will switch to Tories. Or any other party at this time in large numbers. And Labour voters around my way are not all the stereotype of metropolitan Londoners. Looks like Khan will get in

I did put Khan as first choice for Mayor.

And?

 

[chilango]

in any marginal constituencies ?

Reading East. Labour won in 2017 and held in 2019 partly thanks to borrowed LibDem and Green votes.

 

[killer b]

in any marginal constituencies ?

sure. it's a process that already started in 2019 tbf - plenty of seats where the TIG or lib dem vote was the difference that helped the tories in - expect there's plenty more where we could see similar next time.

Labour are fucked tbh. I honestly don't know what they could do now to sort it out.

 

[JTG]

It's an interesting question. Bristol West had a Labour majority of 37,000 in 2017 and 28,000 in 2019. Greens doubled their vote in 2019 (to 18,000, now in second place). I fully expect almost all of the council seats in the constituency to go Green when they're counted on Sunday - with the possible exception of Lawrence Hill (and even that may be close). Would that mean the seat would be considered under threat?
Bristol NW is a Labour/Tory marginal, 5k majorities for Darren Jones in 17 & 19. Parts of the seat may be under threat from a Green surge and if those votes were lost in a GE then the Tories may be back there

As an aside, Jones is one of those anti-Corbyn rightists (like Duffield) who owe their election victories to Corbyn/Momentum support and who could very well lose without it

 

[tim]

Mandelson saying it was down to the two C's- Covid and Corbyn and as one person on the doorstep allegedly told him 'Sort yourselves out, sort yourselves out. You picked the wrong brother and you ended up with Corbyn so that’s goodbye to you. When you’ve sorted yourselves out, we’ll look at you again’.

Yes, I too believe that Labour picked the wrong Corbyn brother.

 

[Shechemite]

Oh god it was absolutely glorious to hear of Labour getting a kicking in Hartlepool this morning. The absolute arrogance of them in an area with one of the highest leave votes in the country, and Labour all mealy mouthed and saying fuck all about it hoping it goes away. The fact is what I heard on the radio this morning is absolutely bob on. Labour are not a party of the working class anymore. They are a party for graduate, liberal, Twitter-woke, remain-voting Londoners. I’m one of them I should know (graduate not remain voter). London is Labour- red. Hartlepool not so much.

If Labour actually want the working class vote they are gonna have to actually start listening to what people want, like Brexit, and stop thinking that people are stupid and wrong and they will realise the error of their ways at some point Five years since 2016 and Labour still don’t get it. The people of Hartlepool think the Tories are more likely to invest in their town than Labour and they could well be right. Even with the Tories being demonstrably corrupt, nepotistic, morally-bankrupt Eton pig wankers. What a fucking shit show

You are khalid Mahmoud and I claim my £5

Labour MP says Londoners and 'woke warriors' are ruining party

Birmingham Perry Barr MP Khalid Mahmood predicted Labour would lose the West Midlands mayoral election

www.birminghammail.co.uk

 

[redsquirrel]

I joined the LP in 2019 because even Corbyn's "lexit" was preferable to what was inevitably on its way ...

The "lexit" that involved holding a second referendum
Did you actually know anything about the party you joined?

 

[gentlegreen]

The "lexit" that involved holding a second referendum
Did you actually know anything about the party you joined?

I lost track of exactly where they were at by the end - it seems so long ago now...

 

[JTG]

Anyone going on about 'woke' people is a fucking idiot

 

[killer b]

They are a party for graduate, liberal, Twitter-woke, remain-voting Londoners. I’m one of them I should know (graduate not remain voter). London is Labour- red.

maybe not even that

 

[Sue]

maybe not even that

Nah.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

Still can't see. They might as well have a troll though, it will probably be enough to put the shits up Starmer even more.

 

[killer b]

Nah.

No - but it's worth remembering that Labour's dominance in the capital is built on pretty shaky ground. Like butchers says, they've abandoned an electorate who've supported them for a century for an electorate who can - and will - quite easily fuck off elsewhere next election.

 

[Sue]

No - but it's worth remembering that Labour's dominance in the capital is built on pretty shaky ground. Like butchers says, they've abandoned an electorate who've supported them for a century for an electorate who can - and will - quite easily fuck off elsewhere next election.

Yeah but it would never be Bailey they fucked off to.

 

[killer b]

Yeah but it would never be Bailey they fucked off to.

I don't think Bailey is going to win, I just thought it was a funny answer to edie's post about 'red' london that's all.

 

[ska invita]

Yeah but it would never be Bailey they fucked off to.

It seem massively unlikely but London does have previous by voting in Boris Johnson for mayor..twice?
Its not impossible: a lot of Labour vote could go Sian/Green, All the suburban Tories not knowing how bad Bailey is and just ticking the Tory box
I cant see it happening but theres some serious swinging in the polls out there

Also Sadiq Khan is being blamed for some crazy traffic in London - its horrendous out there

 

[ska invita]

It seem massively unlikely but London does have previous by voting in Boris Johnson for mayor..twice?
Its not impossible: a lot of Labour vote could go Sian/Green, All the suburban Tories not knowing how bad Bailey is and just ticking the Tory box
I cant see it happening but theres some serious swinging in the polls out there

Also Sadiq Khan is being blamed for some crazy traffic in London - its horrendous out there

 

[killer b]

I'm curious about the contrast between Khan and Burnham - Burnham's record as GM mayor is about as underwhelming as Khan's in London, but he's the King of the North while Khan doesn't get anyone excited. Is it all down to that one speech?

 

[Dom Traynor]

Any comments from those predicting big things for the NIP? Less than 1% of the vote (and around what I predicted) must be pretty crushing. Especially given the average life span on internet only political projects...

 

[Raheem]

NIP didn't even stand any mayoral candidates, did they?

 

[lazythursday]

Any comments from those predicting big things for the NIP? Less than 1% of the vote (and around what I predicted) must be pretty crushing. Especially given the average life span on internet only political projects...

Very disappointing - but the fact the party name wasn't on the ballot gives them a bit of a get out clause on this one I think.

 

[killer b]

I doubt any of us are actually crushed tbh, we just got it wrong. Happens from time to time.

I think I just wanted something to get behind really, and they seemed like fun.

 

[lazythursday]

NIP didn't even stand any mayoral candidates, did they?

They didn't, cos it costs £5K

 

[Gramsci]

And?

To be honest I'm at a loss. Been thinking of your post. The Hartlepool result is crushing defeat for Labour.

In my area despite the right of Labour running Council for years in Lambeth and really annoying locals people still vote Labour.

Greens have made some headway in Lambeth. But not in working class ward like mine. Despite putting up good local candidates.

Corbyn did not put off Labour voters in my area. My non scientific poll would say people in my Council ward vote Labour as they feel their lives would be worse under Tories.

I object to the caricature of London being home of metropolitan woke students. In fact some of what are considered Woke issues like statues my Progress led Council has taken aboard. My Council ward will be renamed Windrush. This has not caused outrage locally. Far from it.

I'm trying to think why in my area Labour vote has not collapsed. Unlike Hartlepool.

To add BLM was big in my area. Large number of local Black Young people joined it. So Labour administration had to take it up.

 

[JTG]

Any comments from those predicting big things for the NIP? Less than 1% of the vote (and around what I predicted) must be pretty crushing. Especially given the average life span on internet only political projects...

As per previous comments, too early to say. Could be something, could be nothing. Suspect they may do better if a big city by election came up and with more time to organise. But then again it could be hot air.

 

[Gramsci]

View attachment 267211

None of my Van Driver mates voted Khan. The LTN thing has been really divisive issue. I don't know how it will affect Labour vote in future in London.

LTNs are seen in some quarters as middle class green left vs ordinary working class Londoners.

This may come to nothing. But doing this in pandemic is bordering on the kind of we know best Labour Party way of doing things that winds people up.

 

[Raheem]

To be honest I'm at a loss. Been thinking of your post. The Hartlepool result is crushing defeat for Labour.

In my area despite the right of Labour running Council for years in Lambeth and really annoying locals people still vote Labour.

Greens have made some headway in Lambeth. But not in working class ward like mine. Despite putting up good local candidates.

Corbyn did not put off Labour voters in my area. My non scientific poll would say people in my Council ward vote Labour as they feel their lives would be worse under Tories.

I object to the caricature of London being home of metropolitan woke students. In fact some of what are considered Woke issues like statues my Progress led Council has taken aboard. My Council ward will be renamed Windrush. This has not caused outrage locally. Far from it.

I'm trying to think why in my area Labour vote has not collapsed. Unlike Hartlepool.

I think maybe part of the thing is Starmer's Labour being seen as being run by Londoners according to London values. It's far from being the whole story of course, but it is naturally not going to bother Londoners so much.

 

[The39thStep]

NIP didn't even stand any mayoral candidates, did they?

seeing as they only formed a month or so before the elections I'm not surprised tbh

 

[Gramsci]

I think maybe part of the thing is Starmer's Labour being seen as being run by Londoners according to London values. It's far from being the whole story of course, but it is naturally not going to bother Londoners so much.

Starmer did annoy people in my local area by saying BLM was just a moment. So in London the perception is different.

I am wondering if a national Labour party is no longer feasible in long term. Whether Starmer or anyone who might replace him has an impossible task. My partners home town Madrid has locally based Mas Madrid which did reasonably well at the the Madrid vote. They did much better than PSOE.

 

[The39thStep]

I'm curious about the contrast between Khan and Burnham - Burnham's record as GM mayor is about as underwhelming as Khan's in London, but he's the King of the North while Khan doesn't get anyone excited. Is it all down to that one speech?

Anywhere or anyone with a list of achievements/failures to compare?