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Hartlepool by-election

its more complex than that
theres a lot of ex east Londoners - working class origins, now petty booj if not middle class, who have made good money and moved out of London, with an attitude of "too many foreigners there now"
its not everyone in essex of course, and there are some seriously long term poor parts of essex
But essex has a particular history of relatively recent people moving there (80s onwards) and taking a powerful narrative of "londons been lost to the foreigners" with them
yep heard that very phrase uttered in Essex
 
I take it that the talk a couple of weeks ago about Johnson resigning is now at a lower volume?
He isn't going anywhere for a while since his star is still clearly in the ascendent and no-one else in the Tories is going to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs, The only reason he might go is he can't manage to send all his brood to posh schools on the PM's salary and feels the need to get back out there to earn some dosh.
It wouldn't surprise me if there are those whispering in his ear to go for a snap GE next year not that there is much chance of them losing in 2024 at the moment.
 
The only reason he might go is he can't manage to send all his brood to posh schools on the PM's salary and feels the need to get back out there to earn some dosh.

Doesn't really need to resign for that, just take on a couple of directorships.
 
Maybe Starmer should just apologise for being so remain-y . The toxicity of Brexit is still a thing, and Starmer was an arch-remainer.
He's already tried to reposition himself and the party away from it - such as by ignoring it altogether, stating that remain is dead and whipping the party to vote for the deal - and it's made no perceptible positive difference. Just the opposite, as it's almost certainly lost him support and votes from many people for whom Brexit still matters. Clearly he didn't want to be seen as yesterday's man clinging on to a lost cause, but if anything he'd have been better off trying to keep remainers/rejoiners more onside rather than trying to cosy up to the red-wallers, because on that issue at least he now seems to be stuck in no-mans land. It's a big part of his larger image problem in that he isn't perceived as standing for anything much apart from his opposition to Johnson's redecoration expenses.
 
Have we had this? Via Huw Lemmey, Polly Toynbee going all-out with "the voters have let Keir Starmer down":

 
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Some "analysis" from Laura Kuenssberg:
"The Hartlepool result is not a surprise for Labour. And it's important to remember that about 10,000 people voted for the Brexit Party in 2019 there, and at an early glance it seemed many of those voters switched across to the Tories."
Actually, at a glance, some of those voters switched to the Tories, most did not vote.
Oh god it was absolutely glorious to hear of Labour getting a kicking in Hartlepool this morning. The absolute arrogance of them in an area with one of the highest leave votes in the country, and Labour all mealy mouthed and saying fuck all about it hoping it goes away. The fact is what I heard on the radio this morning is absolutely bob on. Labour are not a party of the working class anymore. They are a party for graduate, liberal, Twitter-woke, remain-voting Londoners. I’m one of them I should know (graduate not remain voter). London is Labour- red. Hartlepool not so much.

If Labour actually want the working class vote they are gonna have to actually start listening to what people want, like Brexit, and stop thinking that people are stupid and wrong and they will realise the error of their ways at some point :D :facepalm: Five years since 2016 and Labour still don’t get it. The people of Hartlepool think the Tories are more likely to invest in their town than Labour and they could well be right. Even with the Tories being demonstrably corrupt, nepotistic, morally-bankrupt Eton pig wankers. What a fucking shit show :facepalm:
 
Oh god it was absolutely glorious to hear of Labour getting a kicking in Hartlepool this morning. The absolute arrogance of them in an area with one of the highest leave votes in the country, and Labour all mealy mouthed and saying fuck all about it hoping it goes away. The fact is what I heard on the radio this morning is absolutely bob on. Labour are not a party of the working class anymore. They are a party for graduate, liberal, Twitter-woke, remain-voting Londoners. I’m one of them I should know (graduate not remain voter). London is Labour- red. Hartlepool not so much.

If Labour actually want the working class vote they are gonna have to actually start listening to what people want, like Brexit, and stop thinking that people are stupid and wrong and they will realise the error of their ways at some point :D :facepalm: Five years since 2016 and Labour still don’t get it. The people of Hartlepool think the Tories are more likely to invest in their town than Labour and they could well be right. Even with the Tories being demonstrably corrupt, nepotistic, morally-bankrupt Eton pig wankers. What a fucking shit show :facepalm:
The right party of capital have decided that, as their corporate masters pay no tax, it's fine to spaff public money derived from taxes on labour. The Starmerites are still mired in old thinking of Brownite prudence wrt to the public purse.
 
The right party of capital have decided that, as their corporate masters pay no tax, it's fine to spaff public money derived from taxes on labour. The Starmerites are still mired in old thinking of Brownite prudence wrt to the public purse.
I have literally no idea what that means but others probably will!
 
Oh god it was absolutely glorious to hear of Labour getting a kicking in Hartlepool this morning. The absolute arrogance of them in an area with one of the highest leave votes in the country, and Labour all mealy mouthed and saying fuck all about it hoping it goes away. The fact is what I heard on the radio this morning is absolutely bob on. Labour are not a party of the working class anymore. They are a party for graduate, liberal, Twitter-woke, remain-voting Londoners. I’m one of them I should know (graduate not remain voter). London is Labour- red. Hartlepool not so much.

If Labour actually want the working class vote they are gonna have to actually start listening to what people want, like Brexit, and stop thinking that people are stupid and wrong and they will realise the error of their ways at some point :D :facepalm: Five years since 2016 and Labour still don’t get it. The people of Hartlepool think the Tories are more likely to invest in their town than Labour and they could well be right. Even with the Tories being demonstrably corrupt, nepotistic, morally-bankrupt Eton pig wankers. What a fucking shit show :facepalm:
Pig-fucker, not pig-wanker.
 
He's already tried to reposition himself and the party away from it - such as by ignoring it altogether, stating that remain is dead and whipping the party to vote for the deal - and it's made no perceptible positive difference. Just the opposite, as it's almost certainly lost him support and votes from many people for whom Brexit still matters. Clearly he didn't want to be seen as yesterday's man clinging on to a lost cause, but if anything he'd have been better off trying to keep remainers/rejoiners more onside rather than trying to cosy up to the red-wallers, because on that issue at least he now seems to be stuck in no-mans land. It's a big part of his larger image problem in that he isn't perceived as standing for anything much apart from his opposition to Johnson's redecoration expenses.
So where are these hordes of remainers/rejoiners going to go if Starmer doesn't keep them more onside?
 
I live in a predominantly working class Council ward in central London and people still vote Labour. My area Lambeth was also Remain.
It's the posh votes uselessly piled up across the south in 2017 - in won seats - that proved too tempting to people whose social profile matched those seats. A chance to break from the old w/c trad vote and their interests. 100 years sold for a mess of artisanal pottage. Now, the slow death. Pasokification in slow motion. You were never part of the conversation - your vote - accurately taken for granted and as endorsement then weaponised against the former. Necessarily hostile.
 
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I live in a predominantly working class Council ward in central London and people still vote Labour. My area Lambeth was also Remain.
They must have the patience of saints tbh or must be some sort of penance. Who possibly could vote for Labour these days with any enthusiasm?
 
I'm no defender of Labour (or any representative political party) but there is a centre-left party that is poised to win its fourth consecutive election victory and be returned to power despite an almost universally hostile national media. Labourites wedded to bland forms of social democracy might learn something from the SNP. Yet oddly they seem more willing to ape the Tories.
 
After the devastating results for Labour in Hartlepool heads will roll. But enough about Dr Paul Williams' progressive utopia Saudi Arabia.
 
in any marginal constituencies ?
It's an interesting question. Bristol West had a Labour majority of 37,000 in 2017 and 28,000 in 2019. Greens doubled their vote in 2019 (to 18,000, now in second place). I fully expect almost all of the council seats in the constituency to go Green when they're counted on Sunday - with the possible exception of Lawrence Hill (and even that may be close). Would that mean the seat would be considered under threat?
Bristol NW is a Labour/Tory marginal, 5k majorities for Darren Jones in 17 & 19. Parts of the seat may be under threat from a Green surge and if those votes were lost in a GE then the Tories may be back there
 
It pains me to say it but the UK has ended up like the US with elections being voted for on 'personality' because politics in the age of social media is, like, well boring. People want fun-sized soundbites rather than grown up debate and analysis.

Starmer clearly has none, and I'm struggling to think of any possible candidates in the party right now.
 
So where are these hordes of remainers/rejoiners going to go if Starmer doesn't keep them more onside?
I joined the LP in 2019 because even Corbyn's "lexit" was preferable to what was inevitably on its way ...
Since I hope to leave the country before the next GE, maybe it's time to stop pretending I had any real political enthusiasm.
Ironically I will retain the right to vote for life now and not just 15 years ...
 
They must have the patience of saints tbh or must be some sort of penance. Who possibly could vote for Labour these days with any enthusiasm?

There is no sign in my area (central London) that people will switch to Tories. Or any other party at this time in large numbers. And Labour voters around my way are not all the stereotype of metropolitan Londoners. Looks like Khan will get in

I did put Khan as first choice for Mayor.
 
There is no sign in my area (central London) that people will switch to Tories. Or any other party at this time in large numbers. And Labour voters around my way are not all the stereotype of metropolitan Londoners. Looks like Khan will get in

I did put Khan as first choice for Mayor.
Hate to say this but...

 
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