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Government floats bonkers idea of loosening lockdown in groups of ten people

I'm probably missing something obvious :oops:, , but I can't work out the source of the (iffy-looking??) story in the OP :confused:
Novara is a bit hit and miss, but this latest interview with Dr Bill Hanage, an epidemiologist at Harvard, is excellent imo. Covers the problems with 'herd immunity' and possible ways out of the current situation, and more.


Bill Hanage mentioned it on the Novora link LDC posted. Think he called it isopods or something?

E2a Bill Hanage is an Arsenal fan though so not sure how much he can be trusted?

E2a found it 30:35 and yes isopods. But he suggests it's for people who are considered to be low vulnerability.
 
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:D


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The Fridge Magnet beat you to it, but thanks for subjecting me to a Mail front page anyway ..... :p
 
It's a serious idea, the thinking being that it would massively relieve some of the biggest problems of lockdown - the mental health ones - while having relatively little impact on transmission rates.

An example group might be two 'nuclear' families with young children, and a couple of grandparents. They would be treated, and would treat themselves, as one household, and would have no more contact with people outside that larger household than they do now.
Families with children who's parents don't live together already do this (we do anyway). It could work, but the curtain twitchers would hate it.
 
(actually I think I'm already at 10 with the various children and adults over the two households, so it would make no difference to me)
 
It's a serious idea, the thinking being that it would massively relieve some of the biggest problems of lockdown - the mental health ones - while having relatively little impact on transmission rates.

An example group might be two 'nuclear' families with young children, and a couple of grandparents. They would be treated, and would treat themselves, as one household, and would have no more contact with people outside that larger household than they do now.

It would mean, in practice, that the people who don't give a shit, of whom there seem to be many, would be empowered to do whatever the fuck they like. But then they are all doing whatever the fuck they like already. Something has to be done to stop people going insane, to level out the burden of this a tiny bit so it isn't decent people taking all the strain and arseholes not a scrap of it.
 
This is probably already unofficially happening anyway tbh - neighbours have had a bbq with friends over and are all now pissed in the hot tub.

See loads of this type of flaunting social distancing when I’m at work delivering.
 
Families with children who's parents don't live together already do this (we do anyway). It could work, but the curtain twitchers would hate it.

I think that's 'allowed' already isn't it?

I think the risk of transmission is probably very low for my neighbours tbh but no curtain twitching needed it's all been very in the open - garden renovations have involved lots of coming and going and noise, some of it through our garden as we have a shared access path.

Given that my partner is shielding, I am a bit pissed off about it, but I accept that the risk is minimal.
 
Well you can already have a mass funeral if you're a criminal. In the interests of public safety.



Tbf that kid who died had already done his bit for repopulation in the event of covid deaths. Three kids at 17.
 
Well you can already have a mass funeral if you're a criminal. In the interests of public safety.



Tbf that kid who died had already done his bit for repopulation in the event of covid deaths. Three kids at 17.

Family's got a bit of a reputation, father evicted for asb, one brother jailed for killing a woman in dangerous driving, another brother asbo'd for burglary, racial abuse and blackmail , another brother burglary , cousin jailed for murder, and the deceased when living murder and then another stabbing .
 
Family's got a bit of a reputation, father evicted for asb, one brother jailed for killing a woman in dangerous driving, another brother asbo'd for burglary, racial abuse and blackmail , another brother burglary , cousin jailed for murder, and the deceased when living murder and then another stabbing .

Yeah, I imagine he wasn't called 'Mr Ibiza' purely for his love of dance music either.
 
It doesn’t matter what they plan or intend. The lockdown is crumbling and will come to an end fairly soon regardless of any government intervention in a sort of slightly apologetic collective harrumph.

And people I will give get sick and die and other people will shrug and go on about their normal lives, while other people will be furious and scared and try to do what we can to avoid getting sick.

Yeah, I feel it's crumbling the last few days where I am, and among people I know. I think they'll be some managed loosening soon to try and manage it rather than have it collapsing, even if the figures say that's a bad idea.

I think the expanding the people you can hang out with from one household to a few more and/or another household is theoretically a good idea. I do worry the reality of it makes it very hard to police though, and the likelihood of people then ignoring any restrictions completely is much, much higher. Guess when that then gets reflected in new cases they'll move back to tighter restrictions again quickly.

It's also much easier if you're in a family unit and then you band together with another one. Much harder if you're in a shared house or trying to do it with individuals.
 
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Basically they're saying you can have gatherings up to 10 people, but keep it the same 10 people.
Maybe it will be similar when schools go back - children grouped up to 10 and kept with the same 10 children.
 
Basically they're saying you can have gatherings up to 10 people, but keep it the same 10 people.
Maybe it will be similar when schools go back - children grouped up to 10 and kept with the same 10 children.

But it doesn't add up (or rather it does add up iyswim) - 10 children grouped in a class go back to 10 different families, does that then prevent mum and dad from seeing anyone else or is that their 10 chosen for them? Do they get a different 10? What about the teacher? What about someone who works in a supermarket, are their 10 people their colleagues or "you're fired"? If they are happy for their 10 to be their colleagues, what does that mean for their partner and rest of their household?

(A complete free for all simply banning large gatherings would be easier to manage - it's essentially nonsense)
 
As chilango says if they leak stuff about a managed loosening and have former Cabinet Ministers come out and say "the economy won't survive" people wll drift back into their pre-lockdown ways and the Government will be able to say "you're not staying home as we told you to so you might as well all go back to work". I'm amazed they have let it go on this long.
 
I think that's 'allowed' already isn't it?

I think the risk of transmission is probably very low for my neighbours tbh but no curtain twitching needed it's all been very in the open - garden renovations have involved lots of coming and going and noise, some of it through our garden as we have a shared access path.

Given that my partner is shielding, I am a bit pissed off about it, but I accept that the risk is minimal.
Sure, it's allowed, but it's a fairly arbitrary allowance. Lets be honest, someone who's been isolated as a household for a month other than essential shopping trips visiting another household that's been doing the same isn't at any more risk of spreading infection than me and the kid's mum's household (less in fact - her partner is a teacher and is in regular contact with the kids of key workers).

Fatigue is setting in and lots of people will making these calculations and will be assessing the risk as low and breaking lockdown so, unless the government actually want to enforce a hard lockdown - which they don't really have the resources to do - I can see the logic in there being some guidelines in an attempt to stop a free for all.

And the people who don't give a fuck won't give a fuck either way...
 
One person gets it then they'll be infecting up to 10 people in close proximity at a time.

I can't help feeling this (if true, and I am having my doubts) is more aimed at a) households that live nearby and are co-parenting, or b) large extended families that live spread across a couple of households that are fairly local to one another. I can't see it having any wider application, it certainly doesn't apply to me because any 10 people I would pick would be spread over a large geographical area (half of England basically) and have many more potential contacts beyond that.
 
Sure, it's allowed, but it's a fairly arbitrary allowance. Lets be honest, someone who's been isolated as a household for a month other than essential shopping trips visiting another household that's been doing the same isn't at any more risk of spreading infection than me and the kid's mum's household (less in fact - her partner is a teacher and is in regular contact with the kids of key workers).

Fatigue is setting in and lots of people will making these calculations and will be assessing the risk as low and breaking lockdown so, unless the government actually want to enforce a hard lockdown - which they don't really have the resources to do - I can see the logic in there being some guidelines in an attempt to stop a free for all.

And the people who don't give a fuck won't give a fuck either way...

Not sure its arbitrary it's a balance of risk in relation to the emotional and developmental needs of the children.

I agree that two households who've been isolated don't pose much risk, I'm not opposed to it, and also agree that guidelines are better than it breaking down.

Most people have given a fuck it seems to me, but those not giving a fuck actually being in our garden pissed me off.
 
FridgeMagnet has it right; this is just more Fail bollocks. They have been presenting a different route out of lockdown each day, insisting that we need to come out now, whilst simultaneously slagging off anyone not socially distancing.

It’s a shit source of anything.

I imagine so, I wasn't particularly aware of how it originated but it doesn't seem to hold up to even vague poking at the logic of it with a little common sense, let alone any scientific scrutiny.

*EDIT to add that doesn't necessarily rule it out as potential govt policy, at least we haven't been advised to drink bleach yet, not sure I can keep it to eleventy-three close contacts though.
 
This sounds like one of those ideas that sound good when it is being discussed in a meeting room somewhere but won't survive contact with reality.
If I look in the mirror I can see the flaw in this plan straightaway, Mrs Q and I have 4 children, my youngest daughter, my son and his girlfriend live with us, my other 2 daughters live within a few miles of us with their partners, 9 adults in total. If it's no more than 2 households do we have to choose between our daughters? Do children count? My eldest and her husband have a 3 year old which makes 10 and she is expecting another late July that's 11 bit of an awkward number that.
The parents of my son's girlfriend and middle daughter's fiance both live far away so that's OK but my eldest's in-laws live even closer to us than my daughter does and we get on very well with them, they're as much a part of the family as their son who is an only child. So does my daughter have to choose which set of parents they sign up with?
And we're not unique most people are part of a network of family and friends once we move past stay with the same household any restrictions are just going to collapse.
The lockdown always had a limited life, We're social animals and the current rules are inflicting an ever increasing cost financially, socially and mentally on an ever increasing number of people. It was intended to buy time and it has bought some but not enough.
 
Not sure its arbitrary it's a balance of risk in relation to the emotional and developmental needs of the children.

I agree that two households who've been isolated don't pose much risk, I'm not opposed to it, and also agree that guidelines are better than it breaking down.

Most people have given a fuck it seems to me, but those not giving a fuck actually being in our garden pissed me off.
I wasn't calling you out when I mentioned curtain twitchers sorry - I was thinking about the guy on my facebook who posted a photo this afternoon of a the car of a visitor parked outside his neighbours house...

(fwiw I think social control via shame / wondering what the neighbours might think / etc has been quite a powerful source of discipline in the lockdown so far, and that's going to be lost almost totally if there's a loosening of restrictions like this)
 
I imagine so, I wasn't particularly aware of how it originated but it doesn't seem to hold up to even vague poking at the logic of it with a little common sense, let alone any scientific scrutiny.
Dr Bill Hanage, an epidemiologist at Harvard, post #32 includes the video this thread. Starts at 30:35
 
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