Grumpy old git!!
I have reasonable hopes that JACKONE's update tonight may consolidate an improvement (see below). His forecasts were very reliable last year, admittedly all the signals were consistently bad from an early stage, this year is more volatile. But he is a professional, it's not easy this time even for professionals to handle synoptic models that have been fluctuating so much as recently, but he's up there with the best at making sensible conclusions from a bad hand.
They synoptics look like they're on a bit of an upward trend now anyway. Look at this :
Of course these forecasts may yet still revert to something less good, any responsible weatherwatcher knows that risk. But I'm cautiously more optimistic now. We're starting to get towards the reasonably reliable timeframe, and the various forecasts are starting to concur, broadly.
Usual health warnings apply of course ....