French Presidential elections

[belboid]

Macron has said he doesn't want Melanchon's vote. Well, he's said that he only wants people to vote for him if they actually support his policies, which clearly rules out Melanchon.

And Melanchon didn't take a week to say what to do. He immediately said don't vote Le Pen, and said he'd, personally, be voting Macron two days later.

 

[redsquirrel]

Of course he can criticise Macron. He can use every lever against him once he is in.

Once he gets in, and until then? So from attacking Macron he has to go to supporting him and then once the presidential election is over back to opposing him. It's precisely that type of sophistry that the FN feeds on.

What are you hoping for if Le Pen gets in? All out civil war? Because if someone does not vote against her she will.

FFS read what people post, nowhere have I expressed I hope that Le Pen will win, I simply want you to outline what dangers you think there are. Hint - all out civil war is not one of them.

 

[redsquirrel]

And, IMO, he should have immediately at least done what it took him about a week to do, which is ask his supporters in clear terms not to vote for Le Pen, considering that there seems to be a sizable minority of them that are considering it.

You got figures for that second claim? And he's always been utterly clear that he opposes a vote for Le Pen.

EDIT: According to Wiki you're looking at 10-15% of Mélenchon voters voting for Le Pen in the second round, assuming the polling is correct.

 

[Raheem]

And Melanchon didn't take a week to say what to do. He immediately said don't vote Le Pen, and said he'd, personally, be voting Macron two days later.

What he said immediately was that he would not be endorsing either candidate. It took him a week, or five days or whatever, to say directly and explicitly "not a single vote" for Le Pen. And I don't believe he has actually said he will vote for Macron - not that I think he is obliged to do that - only that he will vote. Presumably not for Le Pen, but he didn't say that explicitly at the time.

 

[coley]

I saw a survey last week suggesting that just over half of the people intending to vote for Macron say they'll be doing it to stop le pen, not out of positive choice. It's the nose holders who will stop her from winning (hopefully).

The same "nose holders" that allowed TTT to succeed to the presidency? The ones who stayed at home rather than sully their consciences?
I destest Macron, and his ilk, but he's deeply preferable to LP, though, while I hope he wins, I hope it's close enough to wake up the establishment from their deep seated Neo liberal complacency, and start to take notice of what could happen if they don't start alleviating the pain of the WC.

 

[Raheem]

You got figures for that second claim? And he's always been utterly clear that he opposes a vote for Le Pen.

18% of his first round voters intend to vote for Le Pen, according to this poll

http://www.bva.fr/data/sondage/sond...pop2017_-_02_mai_2017_-_presentation3185f.pdf

 

[redsquirrel]

18% of his first round voters intend to vote for Le Pen, according to this poll

http://www.bva.fr/data/sondage/sond...pop2017_-_02_mai_2017_-_presentation3185f.pdf

Ta, though looking at the wiki figures I posted 18% seems towards the higher end.

I hope it's close enough to wake up the establishment from their deep seated Neo liberal complacency, and start to take notice of what could happen if they don't start alleviating the pain of the WC.

Why in the world would they take notice when your strategy insulates them from the consequences. Have you got any examples of where voting for the lesser evil worked in that way? Because I think it's pretty obvious that it's precisely because of lesser evilism that social democratic parties have been able to (up to recent times) maintain their electoral grip while selling out their principles.

 

[belboid]

What he said immediately was that he would not be endorsing either candidate. It took him a week, or five days or whatever, to say directly and explicitly "not a single vote" for Le Pen. And I don't believe he has actually said he will vote for Macron - not that I think he is obliged to do that - only that he will vote. Presumably not for Le Pen, but he didn't say that explicitly at the time.

He said he wouldn't endorse either candidate, and that he wasn't bothered if people abstained or voted Macron, but that no one should vote for Le Pen. He said that almost immediately.

 

[Raheem]

He said he wouldn't endorse either candidate, and that he wasn't bothered if people abstained or voted Macron, but that no one should vote for Le Pen. He said that almost immediately.

It possibly depends what you mean by "almost immediately".

His concession speech is here if you understand French.



He basically says the two candidates are both rubbish, without indicating any distinction between them, accusing them of the same faults or supporting the status quo and not caring about the environment. Then he says everyone has their own conscience and he has no mandate to tell his supporters what do do, but there will be an online consultation so that the wishes of his campaign activists can be made public.

Anything advice about not voting for Le Pen only came days later, presumably after the fiftieth person had said to him "what the fuck was that?"

 

[J Ed]

The stance of Mélenchon is actually really admirable and honest, far moreso than that of say Sanders who full throttle campaigned for Clinton, a candidate he knew and everyone else knew he knew was awful, after he conceded and no doubt would have done more for the Clinton campaign if the Clinton campaign had allowed him to.

 

[bimble]

Why in the world would they take notice when your strategy insulates them from the consequences. Have you got any examples of where voting for the lesser evil worked in that way? Because I think it's pretty obvious that it's precisely because of lesser evilism that social democratic parties have been able to (up to recent times) maintain their electoral grip while selling out their principles.

Please can you clarify because I'm curious: Do you think it would be preferable for Le Pen to win?
I'm not suggesting at all that you in any way support or like what she stands for, but it looks like you're saying lesser evilism perpetuates the underlying problem, so a sharp shock of the far right being elected might be better than more of the same. Is that right if you could choose would you wish the FN in?

 

[redsquirrel]

Where have I said that it would be preferable for Le Pen win? Clue - I have said no such thing.

 

[bimble]

No, I know you haven't said that. I am just asking you a question, extrapolating from the post I quoted.

 

[redsquirrel]

'Extrapolating', that's what you're calling it now.

No I don't think a win for Le Pen would be preferable, I would not wish the FN in.

EDIT: I was pointing out (the post #997) that it if you are going to push lesser evilism than you can't flee anyway from the consequences of that, which is going to be more neoliberalism. It's lesser evilism that has allowed former social democratic parties to move to the 'centre' and ignore the "the pain of the WC".

 

[gentlegreen]

Presumably Urban will be interested in who Macron fills his cabinet with ?

 

[bimble]

'Extrapolating', that's what you're calling it now.

No I don't think a win for Le Pen would be preferable, I would not wish the FN in.

You won't believe me but it was just a question. I did try to make it super extra clear that i am not suggesting you agree with anything le pen stands for.

This comment in the Guardian this morning kind of says what I was asking you about.

"If I was French I'd vote Le Pen rather than Macron. It's the best way to break away from neoliberal dogma that is ruining the western world. Sure it'll be a crappy few years but there's a decent chance of something meaningful next time around.
Mind you, I'm one of those people who is so pleased Hillary Clinton isn't president I'll forgive Trump anything save a nuclear war, until such time as the American left gets its shit together."

I am curious how many people feel the way that commentator does, especially amongst those who feel that abstaining would be the morally or poltically correct thing to do.

 

[J Ed]

You won't believe me but it was just a question. I did try to make it super extra clear that i am not suggesting you agree with anything le pen stands for.

This comment in the Guardian this morning kind of says what I was asking you about.

"If I was French I'd vote Le Pen rather than Macron. It's the best way to break away from neoliberal dogma that is ruining the western world. Sure it'll be a crappy few years but there's a decent chance of something meaningful next time around.
Mind you, I'm one of those people who is so pleased Hillary Clinton isn't president I'll forgive Trump anything save a nuclear war, until such time as the American left gets its shit together."

I am curious how many people feel the way that commentator does, especially amongst those who feel that abstaining would be the morally or poltically correct thing to do.

Just wondering eh

 

[J Ed]

Here is something I am just wondering about which incidentally is a great way to smear others, just putting it out there!!

 

[bimble]

How did I smear anyone? I wrote " I'm not suggesting at all that you in any way support or like what she stands for".

 

[J Ed]

How did I smear anyone? I wrote " I'm not suggesting at all that you in any way support or like what she stands for".

But here is what you might say if you did

 

[bimble]

Yeah it's true I have got stuff I'd like to say but am holding it in because don't want the furious responses and i'm sure you know what i feel anyway, have not tried to hide my lesser-evilism.
I do understand though that if Macron wins and nothing dramatic changes its likely that next time around it'll be the FN so it's just postponement not any kind of answer.

 

[belboid]

It possibly depends what you mean by "almost immediately".

His concession speech is here if you understand French.



He basically says the two candidates are both rubbish, without indicating any distinction between them, accusing them of the same faults or supporting the status quo and not caring about the environment. Then he says everyone has their own conscience and he has no mandate to tell his supporters what do do, but there will be an online consultation so that the wishes of his campaign activists can be made public.

Anything advice about not voting for Le Pen only came days later, presumably after the fiftieth person had said to him "what the fuck was that?"

Simply not true. The supporters consultation, begun approximately 36 hours after the result, gave three options- macron, blank vote, or abstain. Being anti Le Pen has always been central and upfront.

Do you write for the Guardian?

 

[emanymton]

Yeah it's true I have got stuff I'd like to say but am holding it in because don't want the furious responses and i'm sure you know what i feel anyway, have not tried to hide my lesser-evilism.
I do understand though that if Macron wins and nothing dramatic changes its likely that next time around it'll be the FN so it's just postponement not any kind of answer.

The problem with lesser-eveilism is that it is always the left that has to give ground, it is the left that makes concessions, it is the left that has to compromise. In the long run this just further emasculates the left, and strengthens the right, includeing the far right as the true opponents of the mainstream. Of course I would prefer Macron to Le Pen, but to think just about the presidential election us too narrow a focus. It is also important to have a strong independent left voice. And not just becasue I want to see moves to the left, but also becasue the abscence of that voice only strengthens the far right.

 

[bimble]

I get that. And yet still, no way would I be able to stay away if I was a french voter. The idea that abstaining will strengthen the left seems abstract and contingent on a whole lot of other things happening. The idea of Le Pen winning and enacting her promises seems very real and imminent and tangible. Some weird distant relatives of mine live in France and if nothing else i'd be ticking a box for them to continue to be allowed to wear those silly hats that they feel they can't go out without having on their head.

 

[Pickman's model]

Silly. But it's a somewhat delusional frame of mind to consider abstaining at this point has any possible value.

Nonetheless millions of French people will abstain. All of them apparently mental according to Moose, md

 

[rekil]

This comment in the Guardian this morning kind of says what I was asking you about.

"If I was French I'd vote Le Pen rather than Macron. It's the best way to break away from neoliberal dogma that is ruining the western world. Sure it'll be a crappy few years but there's a decent chance of something meaningful next time around.
Mind you, I'm one of those people who is so pleased Hillary Clinton isn't president I'll forgive Trump anything save a nuclear war, until such time as the American left gets its shit together."

Firstly, nobody gives a shit about comments in the guardian. Secondly, that's either bog standard Gallowayism or the sort of thing fash types come out with when they think they're being clever. The "western world" mention is a bit of a giveaway.

 

[bimble]

Firstly, nobody gives a shit about comments in the guardian. Secondly, that's either bog standard Gallowayism or the sort of thing fash types come out with when they think they're being clever. The "western world" mention is a bit of a giveaway.

Aye you're probably right about that comment.

 

[Raheem]

Simply not true. The supporters consultation, begun approximately 36 hours after the result, gave three options- macron, blank vote, or abstain. Being anti Le Pen has always been central and upfront.

Do you write for the Guardian?

Which part of what I said is "simply not true". In his concession speech, he was absolutely neutral between Macron and Le Pen. Something happening to do with an online form 36 hours later really doesn't make up for it, and neither does it being obvious to you that he would not support Le Pen. Because it's 100% obvious that that's not the issue. He badly misjudged his concession speech.

 

[bimble]

This says that 'For Macron to win he’ll need to attract at least 20 percent of Mélenchon’s first-round voters'.
Can that be right?
Many Mélenchon and Fillon voters intend to abstain

 

[belboid]

Which part of what I said is "simply not true". In his concession speech, he was absolutely neutral between Macron and Le Pen. Something happening to do with an online form 36 hours later really doesn't make up for it, and neither does it being obvious to you that he would not support Le Pen. Because it's 100% obvious that that's not the issue. He badly misjudged his concession speech.

This bit is not true: "Anything advice about not voting for Le Pen only came days later" - the advice came on Tuesday.

His concession was pretty much spot on.