French Presidential elections

[DotCommunist]

Melenchon hasn't refused to endorse Macron, btw. He's refused to concede defeat.

Fifth Republic!

 

[coley]

Yes. Maps don't get to vote.

Hilarious riposte, well done

 

[RD2003]

Moisi on BBC did float the following scenario - that France 2016 is like USA 2008 - still sticking with the hopey-changey thing.....and if that go phut then France 2022 might shift to a USA 2016 scenario of political anger coming to the fore.

This is entirely dependent on all sorts of lurking exogenous variables but above all the economy & the grinding logic of the structural 20% over-valuation France v Germany of the currency entailing internal devaluation & other "reforms" - which will be the reality of Macron's shiny happy smiley vacuous Blair-lite promises - all from a starting point of 25% youth unemployment - quite apart from potential inflammatory flash points such as the refugee crisis or further terror incidents

although the final run-off is hardly going to be an ege of the seat affair the instaneous & unanimous baptising of Macron by the discredited "establishment" figures must be something of a mixed blessing

Its gonna be a rough ride. Nothing is going to change before 2022. Unless we have a big war or summat.

 

[treelover]

It was only natural for Le Pen to turn her back on the metropolitan Paris elite she professes to despise and drive north for two hours to vote in the former coal mining town of Hénin-Beaumont in France’s northern rust belt. One of her top generals, Steeve Briois, is the local mayor and she has a second home nearby.

The far-right populist party has been in power in Hénin-Beaumont for three years after seven decades of leftwing rule. The unemployment rate among its 27,000 population runs at 20%, twice the national average. The FN promised solutions, but the jobless rate has not fallen under the far-right administration.

In the town centre, lots of bars are closed, shop windows are boarded up and many buildings, with their flaking and grimy facades, have seen better days. Only the large town hall and church, clad in scaffolding, are looking forward to better days.

Le Pen heads for the French equivalent of Barnsley or Doncaster, could it ever happen here?

 

[The Boy]

Looking at that map suggests LE Pen will 'walk it' am I missing something?

Where on the map do people live?

 

[agricola]

Le Pen heads for the French equivalent of Barnsley or Doncaster, could it ever happen here?

No, they would go to Harrogate instead.

 

[Raheem]

Looking at that map suggests LE Pen will 'walk it' am I missing something?

The map shows who came first in each department out of eleven candidates. But, firstly, it's a national vote in which Le Pen came second, and secondly there are only two candidates in the second round. Le Pen would need substantially more than half of the supporters of all the other candidates to switch to her in order to walk it.

 

[coley]

The map shows who came first in each department out of eleven candidates. But, firstly, it's a national vote in which Le Pen came second, and secondly there are only two candidates in the second round. Le Pen would need substantially more than half of the supporters of all the other candidates to switch to her in order to walk it.

Ta, it just looked, through the map, that she had won well over half of the voting districts, not familiar with the French voting system.

 

[Cheesypoof]

Our family is French Irish and I wish them all well

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Le Pen heads for the French equivalent of Barnsley or Doncaster, could it ever happen here?

UKIP would go to Margate, no doubt, where they've held their conference. Dunno where Farage went the day after the brexit vote. Could have been Margate. He'll have friends there, real friends who don't mind him being racist and that. She's gone to her stronghold, where she has friends.

 

[Raheem]

Dunno where Farage went the day after the brexit vote.

A debrief at the Russian embassy.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

A debrief at the Russian embassy.

He appeared on RT, but he appeared more often on the BBC.

I reckon it was MI5.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Fifth Republic!

Strange thing, really. The others seemed to be jumping over themselves to concede defeat on the basis of samples. And that was before the big cities had reported at all. Melenchon was merely showing respect to the vote and to the voters.

That said, those initial samples appear to be spot on again. The more votes are counted, the closer the result gets to the samples.

 

[Dom Traynor]

Melanchon is right not to endorse Macron he and his supporters need to mobilise the vote for the assembly elections to get as many leftist deputies as possible. Which will be difficult but not insurmountable, even as many as the FN which isn't a high number at all.

 

[Idris2002]

Death of a party:

 

[The39thStep]

Death of a party:

It's quite staggering isn't it?

 

[brogdale]

It's quite staggering isn't it?

'Left' picked up about 25% between them...approx where LP is according to the polling.

 

[Idris2002]

 

[butchersapron]

So, first round (the one where people really vote for who they want) over the 10 years of the crisis so far:

2007 - right bloc = 46% and NF make up 25% of it.
2012 - right bloc = 41% and NF make up 39% of it.
2017 - right bloc = 46% and NF make up 48% of it.

52-3% if you take out the DLF .

 

[butchersapron]

The point of posting that being to suggest that creeping NF dominance/majority of the right bloc opens the door electorally/mathematically to people not only blocking together against them to keep them out but them also becoming the first choice to block others - and if that happens they will win a presidency. That may not happen this time, but that is where dynamics may well lead.

 

[J Ed]

The point of posting that being to suggest that creeping NF dominance/majority of the right bloc opens the door electorally/mathematically to people not only blocking together against them to keep them out but them also becoming the first choice to block others - and if that happens they will win a presidency. That may not happen this time, but that is where dynamics may well lead.

The real risk is that they become the main oppositional force, if they are not that already. Macron is going to become very unpopular very quickly.

 

[butchersapron]

That's just what I mean - when the only force large enough and coherent enough to block the Macronites who follow this one has become the NF, then the path electorally is open to the presidency.

 

[Idris2002]

That's just what I mean - when the only force large enough and coherent enough to block the Macronites who follow this one has become the NF, then the path electorally is open to the presidency.

Nach Hitler, uns.

 

[butchersapron]

Nach Hitler, uns.

Only people I've seen even coming close to that recently have been the CR types, the putin and Assad types who are really, in actuality, onside with her/them and use this as a weasel way of support.

 

[chilango]

Nach Hitler, uns.

Après moi le déluge more like.

 

[Sue]

I was just talking to a French colleague about the election results. Well until he was moaning about Macron (fair enough). Apparently he's very leftwing and referring to him as a centrist is nonsense.

I suspect he voted Fillon.

 

[Idris2002]

Only people I've seen even coming close to that recently have been the CR types, the putin and Assad types who are really, in actuality, onside with her/them and use this as a weasel way of support.

Right.

I was looking at this thing about the Africa policies of the various contenders in les presidentielles, and came across this:

"The security service of her party, FN (National Front) has a long story of providing mercenaries to France may it be in Comores, Zaïre (now D. R of Congo) or Congo. Marion Maréchal-Lepen’s father is also close to the business circle in Africa and lately, when the party stood against the reelection of the Congolese President Sassou-N’Guesso, it is more because they were for another candidate that was a member of FN rather than because they were for a change or a better democracy in Africa. There is a gap between what the FN says and the reality, and as we all know, interests come first …"

That was a new one on me. Have you heard anything about this mercenaries angle, ever?

How could the French presidential elections in 2017 impact Africa ?

 

[butchersapron]

I certainly haven't heard anything recently about that sort of thing. That said, with the French far rights history it would not surprise me one bit.

 

[Dogsauce]

.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Death of a party:

Can't tell the PS support on the second map from the bits of gunk on my laptop screen.