French Presidential elections

[littlebabyjesus]

french elections are no fun. We know the result already.

They're supposed to keep everyone up all night as the results dribble in one by one.

 

[Idris2002]

What will the melenchon voters do next round?

"Go back to your constituencies and prepare for clandestinity".

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I hope so, of course. Could it be the other way though , the 'protest vote' tranferred ?

I may be wrong, but I don't read it that way. Added to Melenchon's showing last time have been to a large extent votes from former socialist party voters. Few of them will switch to FN.

 

[bimble]

i wish i was even a tiny bit surprised that Le Pen made it though to round 2.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

i wish i was even a tiny bit surprised that Le Pen made it though to round 2.

Every single pre-election poll had her in the top 2. She was winning until very recently. The surprise would have been her not making it through.

 

[The Boy]

I may be wrong, but I don't read it that way. Added to Melenchon's showing last time have been to a large extent votes from former socialist party voters. Few of them will switch to FN.

40+% backing Macron, around 30% MLP. Rest stay at home.

According to pollsters anyway. But they were bang on here, so was can put all that "mneeer, what about Brexit/Trump/1992" in a box for now, i reckon.

 

[bimble]

Didn't know that (have been avoiding looking tbh). Even more sad face then. But the second round is a very different thing and she is very unlikely to win, right?

 

[Beetlebum]

I hope so, of course. Could it be the other way though , the 'protest vote' tranferred ?

I hope not but I take your point. A sizeable minority of Bernie Sanders supporters backed Trump over Clinton. It's not an exact parallel though. I'd still predict an easyish Macron win.

 

[The Boy]

Didn't know that (have been avoiding looking tbh). Even more sad face then. But the second round is a very different thing and she is very unlikely to win, right?

Macron was polling between 60 and 65% against MLP. It might change once they are confirmed as the final two candidates and new polls are run, but that is what we have so far.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Didn't know that (have been avoiding looking tbh). Even more sad face then. But the second round is a very different thing and she is very unlikely to win, right?

She won't win. But anything over 40% will be pretty depressing. Rehashing earlier in this thread, I now hope the clothes pegs come out in force and Le Pen is trounced.

I would think that Macron is pretty friendly as an option to most Fillon voters and to most Hamon voters. He should get more votes than Le Pen from all the other main candidates.

 

[Sue]

Yes, but she'll now be trounced and they seriously though she'd get 30% in R1.

Did they? Seriously?

Trounced or not -- and it'll be extremely interesting to see what the turnout is -- she's in the second round.

And you can only play the 'unite against the fascist' card -- rather than actually address why the FN are doing so well -- so many times before it starts to pall.

 

[J Ed]

A sizeable minority of Bernie Sanders supporters backed Trump over Clinton.

citation needed

 

[The Boy]

citation needed

On the internet? I admire your optimism and your indefatigability.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

On the internet? I admire your optimism and your indefatigability.

How could you possibly find one?

 

[bemused]

I'm half expecting to wake up in the morning to find the exit polls were wrong.

 

[The Boy]

I'm half expecting to wake up in the morning to find the exit polls were wrong.

They're not exit polls as such, but they do keep bumping Macron up touch.

 

[Sue]

Maybe. Or maybe this year was a perfect storm for Le Pen. A ruling socialist party that has completely collapsed. A r/w opposition party that chose an appalling candidate who really should have stood down.

She may not find the same room at the top next time.

This election has been very similar to the recent Dutch one. Fascists on the rise but not rising quite as far as they had hoped and others had feared.

So in the last fifteen years, there've been what four presidential elections and the FN have got through to the second round in two of them. These perfect storms seem to come along pretty frequently...

 

[littlebabyjesus]

And you can only play the 'unite against the fascist' card -- rather than actually address why the FN are doing so well -- so many times before it starts to pall.

You could make the case that the Macron win has already changed that dynamic. The two main parties are going to come either third and fifth or fourth and fifth.

It started to pall first time round anyway - the crook rather than the fascist was hardly stuff of stirring inspiration. In that sense, this time is in some ways worse - Fillon and Hamon have already endorsed Macron rather enthusiastically. I'm hoping Melenchon comes out with a line more like that of 2002. And stuff what they say anyway - clothes peg it whatever. That's not about the politicians asking you to unite against the fascists, it's about you deciding for yourself that you will vote against them.

 

[Sue]

Breaking news is that Le Pen's top after 20 million votes.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

So in the last fifteen years, there've been what four presidential elections and the FN have got through to the second round in two of them. These perfect storms seem to come along pretty frequently...

I don't buy the idea that this election represents a staging post towards further FN success next time around. That's all really. 2002 was in many ways a bit of a freak result, as Le Pen squeaked in with less than 17% on a very low turnout by French standards. This year, Mark 2 has made a strong showing and she isn't going away, but she has fed off a hugely unpopular sitting govt and a hapless opposition. As has Macron, of course.

 

[Old Spark]

Abstain !! Only joking tho I know some will.Le squidgle rouge n'est pas.?

 

[stethoscope]

Beeb reporting Interior Ministry: Le Pen 24.8%, Macron 22.2% after 20m votes.

 

[Sue]

I don't buy the idea that this election represents a staging post towards further FN success next time around. That's all really. 2002 was in many ways a bit of a freak result, as Le Pen squeaked in with less than 17% on a very low turnout by French standards. This year, Mark 2 has made a strong showing and she isn't going away, but she has fed off a hugely unpopular sitting govt and a hapless opposition. As has Macron, of course.

I disagree. The FN has been getting progressively stronger for a long time now and Marine Le Pen is way more electable than her father. She's also been re-positioning the party -- pretty successfully too -- as a 'worker's party'.

Voting FN is now mainstream.

 

[Raheem]

Abstain !! Only joking tho I know some will.Le squidgle rouge n'est pas.?

La bite qui gicle.

 

[redsquirrel]

BBC's Paris correspondent has just said that Le Pen 'didn't do that well'. Delusional.

It's like the Wilders thing in the Netherlands, gaining seats and becoming the second largest party = defeat. Liberals telling themselves what they want to hear.



The idea that the FN are going to go away after this is nonsense, of course they'll have ups and downs but their vote is normalised, it's solid and it's significant. And with Macron's plans it's only going to grow

 

[Sue]

It's like the Wilders thing in the Netherlands, gaining seats and becoming the second largest party = defeat. Liberals telling themselves what they want to hear.



The idea that the FN are going to go away after this is nonsense, of course they'll have ups and downs but their vote is normalised, it's solid and it's significant. And with Macron's plans it's only going to grow

I wouldn't read the rest of the thread...

 

[redsquirrel]

A sizeable minority of Bernie Sanders supporters backed Trump over Clinton.

Really, what's the evidence of this claim?

 

[J Ed]

Melenchon not endorsing Macron, good.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I disagree. The FN has been getting progressively stronger for a long time now and Marine Le Pen is way more electable than her father. She's also been re-positioning the party -- pretty successfully too -- as a 'worker's party'.

Voting FN is now mainstream.

I agree that they have been getting progressively stronger. Not from 2002, though. 2002 marked a high point followed by a decline that was only reversed when MLP took over. They still have virtually no representation in parliament, which reflects the strength of 'anyone but the FN', but yes I agree that voting FN has gone mainstream to an extent.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

The idea that the FN are going to go away after this is nonsense,

Nobody has said that. I have responded to posts that have seen this result as building towards greater success in the future. That is far from assured.