French Presidential elections
- Thread starter gosub
- Start date
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Second round's for that.
Not sure brexit or Trump are particularly relevant here. The rise of the FN predates them considerably, and the voting system is also very different. The dynamics are also very different in terms of the parties - the two main traditional parties could both finish outside the top 3.
bi0boy
Power User
bluescreen
tofu eating wokerati
It looks as though Macron is through to the second round and it's too close to call yet between Mélenchon and Le Pen. From random person on twitter: "In the land of chocolate (sc. Belgium) they are no longer talking about FF."
We'll know for sure soon enough.
We'll know for sure soon enough.
ska invita
back on the other side
what does that mean?
bluescreen
tofu eating wokerati
People follow the Belgian news because it's in French and there's no restriction on reporting on (informal) exit polls.
ETA: it was a tweet with the hashtag RadioLondres, where people report in code on the progress of the pol
ska invita
back on the other side
what does FF mean?
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
ska invita
back on the other side
merci.
should've stopped talking about him weeks ago really... Dead man walking
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Odd to lump Macron in with Hollande. Far better to use Hollande/Hamon and have Macron on his own.
To give a bit of context to that swing, Hollande won the OTs easily in 2012, while just pipping Sarkozy overall. Extrapolating from that, it looks like about half Hollande's vote last time switched to Melenchon this time. If that can be translated nationwide, it adds up to about 14% on top of the 11% Melenchon got last time.
So if that swing is repeated across the board... Big IF!!
To give a bit of context to that swing, Hollande won the OTs easily in 2012, while just pipping Sarkozy overall. Extrapolating from that, it looks like about half Hollande's vote last time switched to Melenchon this time. If that can be translated nationwide, it adds up to about 14% on top of the 11% Melenchon got last time.
So if that swing is repeated across the board... Big IF!!
J Ed
Follow Back Pro Expropriation
Ah great, another election between socially liberal neoliberalism and nativist neoliberalism
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
I wouldn't call Le Pen a neoliberal. She proposes trade barriers and a tax on employing foreigners, for starters. That is not at all neoliberal.
J Ed
Follow Back Pro Expropriation
I am working under the assumption that as with Trump these bits of her policy would be jettisoned very soon after taking office
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Like trump. eh?
Le Pen unlikely to win the second round. There'll be the 'Unite against the fascist' thing, Macron'll win that but suspect less convincingly than might've been thought.
Fuck
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
You mean you think she would stop being a r/w nationalist after taking office? I don't think it makes any sense to call Le Pen or the FN neoliberal.
J Ed
Follow Back Pro Expropriation
I think she would abandon economic policies which break with neoliberalism, just as Trump has done, yes.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Based on what?
Trump is a very different kind of thing from Le Pen. He stood as candidate for the neoliberal Republican party for starters.
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