French Presidential elections

[Idris2002]

The Irish Times:

Immigrants turning France into ‘enormous squat’, says Le Pen

"“If she doesn’t win, we’ll have to leave the country or take up arms, because there’s going to be a civil war,” Gérard (68) predicted. “Look what happened in Cologne ,” he said. “Their imams say it’s women’s fault for wearing short skirts and perfume. Already, all our slaughterhouses have been converted to make halal meat. They are taking over the country. There are already 200 places in France that are ruled by Sharia.”"

Good luck with that, Gérard.

 

[agricola]

Two cops shot on the Champs-Elysees this evening, one dead according to twitter. Gunman also dead.

 

[Idris2002]

Also on Reuters. Will this affect the vote, or are the French inured to this now?

 

[Raheem]

The news broke during a TV "debate" (in quotes because the candidates were mainly not face to face"), so the immediate responses of the candidates might have an influence.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Also on Reuters. Will this affect the vote, or are the French inured to this now?

Might mean Hollande's fucked.

Serious point would be that nobody standing is aligned to the current regime in any way except the hopeless Hamon.

I wouldn't put it that the French are inured to this now. Rather, the damage has already been done.

 

[gentlegreen]

.

 

[Idris2002]

Middle-aged divorced man introduces his son to his new girlfriend.

 

[bluescreen]

on 20 April, here: Présidentielle. SONDAGE : les intentions de vote, région par région

 

[J Ed]

Middle-aged divorced man introduces his son to his new girlfriend.

Melenchon speaks Spanish fluently, his parents were both Spanish speakers, here he is speaking in Spanish on Iglesias' TV programme La Tuerka a few years back now.

 

[J Ed]

 

[Raheem]

Hmmm. Seems like the trick is to squeeze the tip of your cock against the edge of the table.

 

[J Ed]

Anyone dare to predict what might happen?

 

[Raheem]

Anyone dare to predict what might happen?

Sure, but predicting what will happen is the tricky part.

 

[The Boy]

Anyone dare to predict what might happen?

Fillon v another. Possibly leaning towards Macron ATM, though not sure that isn't just because I backed him when was around 20s.

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

Google search for "bbc" followed by names of leading candidates and "2017" (not scientific but quite probably indicative):

Fillon: about 5.17 million results

Le Pen: about 24.9 million results

Macron: about 2.85 million results

Melenchon: about 1.14 million results

-------------------------------------------

The actual polling is obviously much much closer than this would have us believe.

Mainstream news (not just the bbc to be fair) is absolutely bang into giving publicity for fascism.

 

[butchersapron]

Yes, the BBC have ran 25 million articles on Le Pen as regards this election. Roughly a few hundred thousand everyday for quite some time.

What are they up to? And why?

 

[The Boy]

Turnout much the same as 2012 as of midday, so no sign yet of the low turnout I saw some predicting.

 

[Raheem]

Let's face it, polls can be wrong, but they're still a better guide than anything else, so it will probably be Macron and Le Pen.

If there's going to be a surprise, though, I would go for Macron and Mélenchon. I think Le Pen may have made a mistake in responding to the shooting in Paris with a call to halt immigration, because it may have alienated part of her support that has fooled itself into thinking she's not as hardline as she's made out to be. These also tend to be younger voters who are less likely to be attracted to Fillon.

Only guesswork, though.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Turnout much the same as 2012 as of midday, so no sign yet of the low turnout I saw some predicting.

Bad news for Le Pen? Relatively low turnout was a big factor in her dad reaching the second round in 2002.

At the risk of appearing foolish in a few hours' time, I'm going to call Macron v Mélenchon second round.

 

[Santino]

Yes, the BBC have ran 25 million articles on Le Pen as regards this election. Roughly a few hundred thousand everyday for quite some time.

What are they up to? And why?

If we get Trump nominated, Clinton's a shoo-in!

 

[bimble]

I've been hiding behind the sofa on this one can't bear to look. If she wins will crawl under it.

 

[Sue]

Bad news for Le Pen? Relatively low turnout was a big factor in her dad reaching the second round in 2002.

At the risk of appearing foolish in a few hours' time, I'm going to call Macron v Mélenchon second round.

A lot of her suport is solid so no, reasonable turnout is good for her.

 

[The Boy]

A lot of her suport is solid so no, reasonable turnout is good for her.

When a candidate's supporters are more certain to vote than their competitors, low turnout helps them - the ones turning out are more likely to be theirs.

Turnout which is almost exactly in line with last time out doesn't really help her at all. It might not necessarily go against her - polling errors happen - but she was falling slowly but steadily in the polls. Fillon is going through, imo.

 

[Sue]

When a candidate's supporters are more certain to vote than their competitors, low turnout helps them - the ones turning out are more likely to be theirs.

Turnout which is almost exactly in line with last time out doesn't really help her at all. It might not necessarily go against her - polling errors happen - but she was falling slowly but steadily in the polls. Fillon is going through, imo.

You're right of course, not feeling very with it today...

Anyway, still going with Le Pen and Macron in the second round. Would be very happy if Le Pen didn't get through but I think she will alas.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

A lot of her suport is solid so no, reasonable turnout is good for her.

Le Pen's base is clearly up from her dad's level in 2002, when he squeaked into the second round with under 17% of a 70% turnout, but as for him there is a big constituency out there that she cannot reach, that would never vote FN. Getting them out voting must be bad news for her. (That's also the reason I think there's virtually zero chance of her winning a second round against anyone.)

Another unknown might be the number of tactical switches from Hamon to Mélenchon - and I would think a high turnout would help Mélenchon in this regard.

 

[The Boy]

Looks like high turnout in London. No idea if that is being replicated elsewhere*, but given the way foreign-based frenchies were polling that might also hurt Le Pen.

(*I'm not registered anymore so unlikely to take a visit to consulate to check what it's like here)

edit: though polls were predicting lower turnout, so could still be something to it.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Looks like high turnout in London. No idea if that is being replicated elsewhere*, but given the way foreign-based frenchies were polling that might also hurt Le Pen.

(*I'm not registered anymore so unlikely to take a visit to consulate to check what it's like here)

what %age of the overall vote are they? Polls put Le Pen at <10% among expats. Also Mélenchon under 10%. Fillon and Macron both way ahead. It's almost like they live in a different country.

 

[The Boy]

what %age of the overall vote are they? Polls put Le Pen at <10% among expats. Also Mélenchon under 10%. Fillon and Macron both way ahead. It's almost like they live in a different country.

Not huge, but aren't there like 300,000 French expats in London alone? In a close election...

 

[J Ed]

what %age of the overall vote are they? Polls put Le Pen at <10% among expats. Also Mélenchon under 10%. Fillon and Macron both way ahead. It's almost like they live in a different country.

the French people living in London must on average be far richer than those living in France.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

the French people living in London must on average be far richer than those living in France.

Yes, I would think so, particularly those French people living here who go to the bother of registering and voting. I know a couple of French people who are not rich but also who are not registered.