French Presidential elections

[Smokeandsteam]

'We’re the only party that goes into the poorer areas. When we speak to people there, they tells us they never see any of the others'

In ‘forgotten France’, Le Pen’s young backers say only she cares for them

 

[mather]

Nice to see Melenchon's polling numbers rising. Ahead of Hamon by 10 plus points and now tying with Fillon. Hopefully he can keep this momentum going to displace that neo-liberal entitled twat Macron and face off against Le Pen in the second round.

 

[Raheem]

Nice to see Melenchon's polling numbers rising. Ahead of Hamon by 10 plus points and now tying with Fillon. Hopefully he can keep this momentum going to displace that neo-liberal entitled twat Macron and face off against Le Pen in the second round.

He's ahead of Fillon in a poll out today. Macron and Le Pen still clear by around six points, but you never know.

 

[stavros]

Hamon has said he wants people to vote for Mélenchon if he himself doesn't make it to the final round. It kind of sounds like he's conceding defeat.

 

[mather]

He's ahead of Fillon in a poll out today. Macron and Le Pen still clear by around six points, but you never know.

Indeed.

However, polling isn't what it was as politics the world over has become a lot more unpredictable and unstable. Pollsters got it wrong on the 2015 election, Brexit and Trump. I'm betting that pollsters are going to overestimate Macron's support and underestimate both Le Pen's and Melenchon's.

 

[bluescreen]

Minute anecdote: When I was in SW France last month my SIL was saying that Mélenchon would make it through to the second round. WTF!? It was looking much less plausible then than it is now. She reckoned there was just too much media hype about Macron, inflating his image way beyond his real support. (The media love him, she says, but they live in an elitist world out of touch with ordinary workers like herself.) Her rationale for saying Mélenchon would pull through was that there must always be somewhere for the left vote to go in France, and the PS is a shower at the moment. Speaking for herself, she said there wasn't a single candidate who represented her interests and she would probably post a blank envelope in the first round*, but would vote for whoever was standing against Le Pen in the second. Even Fillon? Hmm, ça dépend: she doesn't think he's any more corrupt than any other politician, they're all utterly corrupt! And he won't do half of what he's threatening to do, politicians never do. SIL thinks there will be more than average abstentions in round one - and bear in mind that French people on average are more politically engaged than the Brits** - so the polls will be even less reliable than usual.

The middle class socialist cousins, OTOH, who were once preparing to hold their nose and vote for Juppé against Le Pen, would back Macron in the first round with a heavy heart. But if Mélenchon really does stand a chance after all... It's a gamble. Their worst nightmare is a second round contest between Le Pen and Fillon.

*She's a village councillor, so she has to be seen to vote, she says.
**Source: PIDOOMA

 

[Sue]

'We’re the only party that goes into the poorer areas. When we speak to people there, they tells us they never see any of the others'

In ‘forgotten France’, Le Pen’s young backers say only she cares for them

I used to live in Paris. A guy I worked with was brought up in one of the banlieues and still had family there.

He said that they only ever saw the Communists and the FN (which I thought was pretty astonishing given the demographics) round there and that they'd been abandoned by the mainstream parties.

This was in 2002, shortly before Le Pen senior got through to the second round of the presidential elections.

 

[ska invita]

"In a sign that Macron's team are growing anxious about the impact of Melenchon, particularly among the young, supporters spread a video online set to techno music warning about the leftwinger’s huge tax-and-spend plan."

Can anyone find a link to that video? id like to see it

 

[J Ed]

Macron needs the fiscal kombat treatment

 

[hot air baboon]

I wonder if it bears any relation to the programme Hollande was actually elected on

François Hollande vows to tax the rich to pay off French deficit

 

[Idris2002]

Well, it looks like Melenchon has that all important gamer vote in the bag:

Fiscal Kombat : Secouez-les tous !

 

[gentlegreen]

Not the video mentioned, but I found these ...

 

[J Ed]

A lot of the pro-Le Pen and pro-Fillon twitter accounts that were previously focused on attacking Macron have started attacking Mélenchon.

 

[mather]

A lot of the pro-Le Pen and pro-Fillon twitter accounts that were previously focused on attacking Macron have started attacking Mélenchon.

A sure sign that Melenchon has the momentum needed to get him into the second round of the presidential race. When your opponents attack you as opposed to ignoring you, you know you're doing right.

 

[J Ed]

A sure sign that Melenchon has the momentum needed to get him into the second round of the presidential race. When your opponents attack you as opposed to ignoring you, you know you're doing right.

Let's hope so!

 

[mather]

Let's hope so!

Nothing is definite but things are looking better by the day.

By the way, didn't Wikileaks make some statement about them having dirt on some of the candidates (Le Pen, Macron and Fillon if I remember correctly), what ever happened to that?

 

[Smokeandsteam]

I used to live in Paris. A guy I worked with was brought up in one of the banlieues and still had family there.

He said that they only ever saw the Communists and the FN (which I thought was pretty astonishing given the demographics) round there and that they'd been abandoned by the mainstream parties.

This was in 2002, shortly before Le Pen senior got through to the second round of the presidential elections.

The article below seems to confirm that. And worse that it represents a deliberate turn by the left away from the working class and towards middle class identity politics

‘Abandoned’ French working class ready to punish left’s neglect by voting for far right

 

[bluescreen]

The article below seems to confirm that. And worse that it represents a deliberate turn by the left away from the working class and towards middle class identity politics

‘Abandoned’ French working class ready to punish left’s neglect by voting for far right

(The article dates from 2015.)
Is identity politics middle class? Not disagreeing, just not convinced. It's an easy label, that's for sure, along with 'snowflake'. But if the article's general thesis is right that the interests of the autochthonous French working class have been sidelined, it's troubling to think that those interests might at any point be at odds with the interests of minorities. The struggle is always for work and resources but a fair distribution does not mean a preferred distribution. So Le Pen capitalises on all that perceived grievance.

 

[redsquirrel]

There' plenty to be aggrieved about

More than five times as many destitute asylum seekers live in the poorest third of the country as in the richest third, according to a Guardian analysis, which has prompted leading politicians to call for a complete overhaul of the dispersal system.

Is that a fair distribution?

 

[Smokeandsteam]

(The article dates from 2015.)
Is identity politics middle class? Not disagreeing, just not convinced. It's an easy label, that's for sure, along with 'snowflake'. But if the article's general thesis is right that the interests of the autochthonous French working class have been sidelined, it's troubling to think that those interests might at any point be at odds with the interests of minorities. The struggle is always for work and resources but a fair distribution does not mean a preferred distribution. So Le Pen capitalises on all that perceived grievance.

I think the key quote from the article is from the think tank or "ideas laboratory” Terra Nova. This suggests that for the left the priority is no longer the working class:

"In a document entitled The France of Tomorrow, Terra Nova said the country would be “younger, more diverse, more feminised”, and declared: “The working class is no longer at the heart of the leftwing vote”.

You are correct that the article is from 2015. The reason for posting it is that I've seen nothing to suggest that a change in direction has been adopted. You have to ask in those circumstances who exactly the working class are likely to logically vote for. A left that has turned its back on them or the far right who explicitly profess to speak for them.

 

[bluescreen]

I think the key quote from the article is from the think tank or "ideas laboratory” Terra Nova. This suggests that for the left the priority is no longer the working class:

"In a document entitled The France of Tomorrow, Terra Nova said the country would be “younger, more diverse, more feminised”, and declared: “The working class is no longer at the heart of the leftwing vote”.

You are correct that the article is from 2015. The reason for posting it is that I've seen nothing to suggest that a change in direction has been adopted. You have to ask in those circumstances who exactly the working class are likely to logically vote for. A left that has turned its back on them or the far right who explicitly profess to speak for them.

Well, quite. Which is my SIL's dilemma. But she will not support Le Pen under any circumstances.

ETA I'm not claiming any universality for her view, of course, how could I? But I doubt she's alone.

 

[Idris2002]

Lara Marlowe on les presidentials:

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/worl...3043612?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

At the end, buried amidst the liberal pabulum, there's a good point about Macron's support being potentially very soft, implying that even those who say they'll vote for him may not actually turn out for him on the day.

 

[mather]

implying that even those who say they'll vote for him may not actually turn out for him on the day.

I really hope so!

 

[Raheem]

Polling on BFMTV (French news channel).

Who is the most presidential? Who has the best plan for France? Macron wins both of these.

Who best understands people like me? Who would bring the most positive change? Mélenchon wins both of these.

Mélenchon second on plan for France and and third most presidential. Le Pen not performing well in the poll.

 

[mather]

and third most presidential.

Who was second?

 

[Raheem]

Who was second?

Fillon.

 

[mather]

Wow, so quite a few French people think corruption and nepotism are presidential qualities.

 

[Raheem]

Wow, so quite a few French people think corruption and nepotism are presidential qualities.

Recent French history would suggest they have a point.

 

[mather]

By the way, I personally can't stand this obsession that political pundits, pollsters and the mainstream media have about being 'presidential'. Just look at all the liberals in America that are now falling into line to support Trump because he is now supposedly being presidential because he is bombing Syria. So much for the #TheResistance!

 

[redsquirrel]

Wow, so quite a few French people think corruption and nepotism are presidential qualities.

Pretty accurate, qualities most politicians, French and non-French, have in spades.