French Presidential elections

[redsquirrel]

well the post I asked for qualification, which you chose to answer, was vague. That's why I wanted a qualification... It was suggestive and left a lot open. It would've been interesting to know what Mather meant by it. I read the tone very differently to what you replied

Sorry but this is simply false, you didn't ask for a qualification.

Besides of which there was a 'qualification' in mather's original post - that (some) liberals would ' [try] to emotionally blackmail people into supporting him to as the 'lesser evil' candidate.' He/she made no claim that all arguments for voting against Le Pen were necessarily emotional blackmail, merely that some were likely to be.

 

[redsquirrel]

Valls backing Marcon Not gone down well with lots of PS bods

In a virulent tweet, [Arnaud Montebourg] wrote: “From now on everyone knows that an engagement made on one’s honour by a man like Manuel Valls is worth: nothing. And that’s what a man without honour is worth.”

Patrick Mennucci, a Socialist MP, wrote: “Manuel Valls you shame us.” Others contributed scathing responses accusing Valls of being “pathetic”, “a traitor”, and “a saboteur”.

Mathieu Hanotin, one of Hamon’s campaign directors, said Valls’s defection was “a pathetic attempt at sabotage”.

Meanwhile Fillon's wife charged

The British-born wife of French presidential candidate François Fillon has been formally put under investigation in the fake jobs scandal that has poisoned her husband’s political career.

So looking more and more likely to be Le Pen vs Marcon. Ugh.

 

[camouflage]

Kicking off in France at the moment after a Chinese man was shot by police at his house after answering the door. Que the French national pass-time.
I wonder if people in other ethnic minorities in France are showing solidarity with the Franko-Chinois people, I hope so. A unified stand against police racism is really important, especially for when LePen gets in.

Riots in Paris after police shoot Chinese man dead

 

[stavros]

Valls backing Hamon Not gone down well with lots of PS bods

Do you mean backing Macron? Whether it helps prevent a Fillon-Le Pen run-off remains to be seen and analysed.

 

[redsquirrel]

Do you mean backing Macron? Whether it helps prevent a Fillon-Le Pen run-off remains to be seen and analysed.

Sorry yes Macron, like the headline says. Really not been with it this week.

 

[stavros]

I've just starting watching the first debate, although I'll be doing it in stages - their clear and relatively slow delivery is very good listening practice for us learners. I've only watched the intros so far, but it was noticeable that le Pen wasn't as fluid in her speech as the others, stumbling a little as if struggling to remember the exact script. Macron appeared to look for an autocue at one point too.

 

[Old Spark]

Russia says Fillon is in the lead.Now why would they say that.?


French polling watchdog warns over Russian news agency's election report

 

[stavros]

I saw some commentators earlier saying that le Pen was chuffed with Valls backing Macron, as she fancies taking on Fillon in the final face-off.

 

[Sue]

I saw some commentators earlier saying that le Pen was chuffed with Valls backing Macron, as she fancies taking on Fillon in the final face-off.

Valls backing Macron will make little difference, apart from making more of his own party hate him.

 

[Old Spark]

Melenchon now well ahead of Hamon -who should now pull out.

 

[stavros]

Melenchon now well ahead of Hamon -who should now pull out.

I saw a poll earlier which suggested that if* Hamon did withdraw and all his backers went to Mélenchon, it'd be Macron vs Mélenchon in the decider, with le Pen a close third.

*I know, it never works like that.

 

[redsquirrel]

A piece in the Guardian supposedly summarising the current state of play, actually just another puff piece on Macron.

A victory for Macron, on the other hand, would point to a future for centrist, pro-European politics and, after the defeat of Geert Wilders in recent Dutch elections, suggest the 2016 UK and US upsets may not necessarily herald the end of liberalism and the EU.

Strange how gaining seats and becoming the second biggest party in the parliament is a defeat.

 

[Idris2002]

The six other candidates in France (including a sinister conspiraloon from the La Rouche crowd):
Meet the 'other six' candidates running for France's presidency

 

[stavros]

All eleven of the candidates on last night's debate. From my understanding of French, it seemed quite similar to the UK debates or Question Time: just parrot the manifesto.

Two observations though. Philippe Poutou speaks at about twice the speed of any other human, without sadly sounding sped up and like a chipmunk. Plus, Jean Lassalle achieves the impressive twins feats of both world's largest nose and world's most boring voice.

 

[ska invita]

All eleven of the candidates on last night's debate. From my understanding of French, it seemed quite similar to the UK debates or Question Time: just parrot the manifesto.

Two observations though. Philippe Poutou speaks at about twice the speed of any other human, without sadly sounding sped up and like a chipmunk. Plus, Jean Lassalle achieves the impressive twins feats of both world's largest nose and world's most boring voice.

supposedly Melenchon kind of "won"

Mélenchon was found the most convincing performer by French viewers of the debate, a snap poll showed. The poll by Elabe for BFM TV said Mélenchon had managed to convince 25% of those who had watched. Macron was rated as second most convincing, on 21%. Le Pen (11%) came in fourth behind Fillon (15%).

However, the same poll rated Macron’s programme as the best of the 11, with the support of 23% of viewers, followed by Mélenchon (22%) and Fillon (18%).

 

[stavros]

Again, Le Pen stumbled on her intro. She must be a decent orator to the converted, otherwise she wouldn't have reached and maintained her current position, but it didn't seem to show based on the first half hour that I've watched so far.

 

[Raheem]

I might be getting a bit premature, but it looks like a good couple of days for Mélenchon. He's up to 17% based on polling immediately after the debate, but I reckon he might benefit further, because a lot of people will go off today's reporting, which was very positive for him, rather than the debate itself. Added to that, Hamon has dropped into single figures, which must surely give some of his supporters pause. And added to that, Le Pen had a pretty bad debate, with a lot of focus on her exchanges with J-LM and Poutou (who, I agree, seems to have missed a calling as a horse race commentator) in which she definitely came off worse. Then, today there's new stuff about her "fake jobs" scandal. It's not pretty clear that one of her close associates who had a legitimate job on the Cote d'Azur also had a job in the north for which he was paid a €110,000 salary but never turned up to work. You'd have to be an idiot not to suspect that money went into the pot for the presidential campaign, and I know for a fact that some French people are not idiots.

All in all, Mélenchon in the final two looks, though not yet predictable, also not unrealistic.

 

[ska invita]

Stand down Hamon, stand down please, stand down

 

[Raheem]

Stand down Hamon, stand down please, stand down

It should happen, but I don't think it can, unfortunately. Even if he were brave enough to take that decision personally, my understanding is that the PS could petition the constitutional court to have the election postponed for them to select another candidate, and their request would almost certainly be granted. On the other hand, it's possible that his vote will continue to migrate to Mélenchon anyway.

Personally, I think Hamon is OK, but I think he went into this with the idea that he could never win the nomination but it would be worth it to give his sci-fi socialism thing a push, and he's not really been able to adjust to a presidential campaign he never expected.

 

[Dogsauce]

I wonder if the slight faltering of support for the European far right is anything to do with the very public chaos and embarrassment of the American far right presidency? If Trump is proving toxic to the brand?

 

[Idris2002]

I hope Melenchon does make it, but my fear is that the French elites (including soi-disant 'centrists') would decide that the Fascist is preferable to the leftist. . .

 

[Sue]

I hope Melenchon does make it, but my fear is that the French elites (including soi-disant 'centrists') would decide that the Fascist is preferable to the leftist. . .

Melenchon won't make it into the second round. Imo the French elite will go for Macron.

Unless something utterly bizarre happens in the next couple of weeks, it's going to be Le Pen and Macron in the second round.

 

[redsquirrel]

The PS cannot stand aside for Mélénchon, like Labour, the ALP or the Democrats their whole purpose is being the biggest "left" option in town, they stand aside now and they're admitting that "a vote for Mélénchon is not a vote for the FN or LR"

Melenchon won't make it into the second round. Imo the French elite will go for Macron.

Unless something utterly bizarre happens in the next couple of weeks, it's going to be Le Pen and Macron in the second round.

And then Macron winning, orange twat.

 

[gentlegreen]

 

[Raheem]

Mélenchon joint third with Fillon in the latest poll.

 

[stavros]

View attachment 103844

C'est Chumbawamba, n'est-ce pas ?

 

[J Ed]

 

[brogdale]

Her Nazi father got 18% in the 2002 second round. If she gets through, she'll struggle to push much beyond 25%.

 

[J Ed]

Her Nazi father got 18% in the 2002 second round. If she gets through, she'll struggle to push much beyond 25%.

We'll see. I also think it depends massively who she is against... Macron okay I can buy that more or less, though I think she'd do better than 25%, but Fillon?

 

[J Ed]

Mélenchon's campaign has made a video game called fiscal kombat where he battles French oligarchs

You can play it here ! Fiscal Kombat : Secouez-les tous !