Idris2002
canadian girlfriend
Continent cut off by fog.
French Presidential elections
- Thread starter gosub
- Start date
Penelope Fillon's keeping the British (well Welsh) side up at least.
No return for Sarkozy then if Fillon bid collapses.
Nicolas Sarkozy to face trial over 2012 campaign financing
Nicolas Sarkozy to face trial over 2012 campaign financing
hot air baboon
Well-Known Member
please don't tell me there's any chance whatsoever of Fillon limping on as a widely discredited establishment insider - it'll be a Hillary Clinton scenario all over again... 
I take it there is little prospect of either Melenchon or Hamon withdrawing in favour of the other.?
They have around 25 per cent between them enough to get into the second ballot with Hamons vote going down and Melenchons inching up.
Presumably if they did a deal not all of the non runners vote would transfer to the other.
They have around 25 per cent between them enough to get into the second ballot with Hamons vote going down and Melenchons inching up.
Presumably if they did a deal not all of the non runners vote would transfer to the other.
Either this has already been debated out and noone can be asked to tell me a relatively new poster or its a bit tricky right now comrade-I am really busy lancing the cats boil,maybe next month.
ska invita
back on the other side
No actual signs of it happening that Ive seen, but commentators say its a possibility.... still time for this to happen. I expect if it happens it will be quite late in the day, what with the shifting sands.
And its presumed Melenchon would stand down for Hamon, rather than vice versa
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Of course it is. We all have to fall in behind the PS/Labour/ALP/Democrats etc
ska invita
back on the other side
Hamon is polling double what Melenchon is.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
So Mélénchon should just fall into line? That's the same line the centre-left have been using for the last century, You buy it then you're saying everybody should just go to the PS/Labour/ALP/Democrats, the same parties that have been attacking them.
ska invita
back on the other side
i take your point
ska invita
back on the other side
There is also a dynamic that people who vote centre are less likely to vote far, where as people on the far are more prepared to vote center, as a compormised step to their own long terms strategic aims... thats true of the right as it is of the left.
Lets say Melenchon and Hammon were both polling 15%, but needed a combined 30% to win.
Melenchon standing down and encouraging a vote for Hammon would be more likely to reach 30% than vice versa.
Voters have created that dynamic above all else, no?
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
I'm not sure I agree with the first paragraph, at least not in the case of all other things being equal. People voting Labour as an anyone but the Tories vote (change depending on country) has more to do with Labour ruthlessly attacking any left-wing alternative, ensuring they are 'the only realistic alternative' (often with the electoral system helping them) than a natural inclination in "far"-left voters to vote centre. When there is an alternative, I'd say centre voters are as likely to move as those further from the centre. The meltdown in the Liberal vote and the massive gains of SNP last election, ok there's no movement to "far" options but in both case you have a big movement away from the "centre".
And I'd certainly disagree with it in respect to the right, most BNP support came from non-voters rather than from Tories (I'm not sure there wasn't more drift from Labour to the BNP than from Tory, but don't quote me on that, I'll have to go and check). Disaffected Tories did make up the largest group of UKIP support but I'm not sure that's still the case, and they are certainly now attracting voters both from the centre-left and from non-voters.
In light of all that I can't agree with the last sentence at all.
ska invita
back on the other side
you're right, and voter movement is complex
No he isn't. At best he's likely 2-3% ahead.
ska invita
back on the other side
it was 10 v 18 last i looked a week back
iirc
In the immediate aftermath of the PS primary. There is always a bounce after these things - largely due to response bias IMO.
I've double checked and I was a whole percentage point out. The gap is 3-4% depending on pollster.
ska invita
back on the other side
heres a poll published 5 days ago
i exaggerated with double, i often do tbh, but its a substantial lead
i exaggerated with double, i often do tbh, but its a substantial lead
ska invita
back on the other side
yeah i was wondering that too.... thats a substantial others vote
Raheem
Well-Known Member
No, they're not. The biggest chunk would be a centre-right party callled Modem (I don't think they have decided whether to stand a candidate or not) and then a UKIP-ish party called Debout la France. Then there are two far-left parties, Lutte Ouvrière (Trots) and Nouveau Parti Anticapitaliste (trade unionists), but they are only polling about a percent between them, and the Greens, who are polling about a percent.
chilango
Hypothetical Wanker
Raheem
Well-Known Member
That's probably the view of some of Mélenchon's supporters. But it's not as if Mélenchon himself has dedicated his life to resisting the centre-left. He was in the PS for 30-odd years. He was a minister. Then he left out of disillusionment that support for the left candidate in the PS leadership election was so low. And guess who that candidate was? None other than Benoit Hamon. So now the wheel has turned, why wouldn't it be logical for Mélenchon to lend a bit of tactical support? It's a much more common thing to do in the French system than in ours.
It's possible that he will, although I don't think it looks particularly likely. But the reasons will be about political calculation.
And part of the mainstream parties thinking they can dictate who voters even have the possibility of voting for.
(I remember a Lib Dem party activist once angrily telling me that if we hadn't stood for election, they wouldn'be beat Labour.
I said the same could be said about them standing. Which wasn't strictly true as it was across a lot of our non-target areas. It did get the expected apoplectic reaction though so...
)
I said the same could be said about them standing. Which wasn't strictly true as it was across a lot of our non-target areas. It did get the expected apoplectic reaction though so...
)
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Something like the London mayoral election would work for France's presidential election, I would have thought. 1st pref, 2nd pref, maybe even a 3rd pref. That means that nobody need abandon Melanchon, for example, in order to make their vote count.
Still might not lead to a favourable result in this instance, though. I would suspect that such a system would lead to a Macron victory, although the current system may well do that too.
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