French Presidential elections
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J Ed
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Worse than New Labour imo
ska invita
back on the other side
Funnily enough I also spoke to a French person visiting London today, and also was able to pretend I had half a clue what was going on. I did so in a french accent, which I'm sure was very impressive to her 
(that bits not true)
I asked about the mood in Paris etc and things I gleaned according to her included:
The French police are rampant at the moment...the state of emergency has made them rabid. The truncheon rape is representative, although not uncommon. Supposedly the French police have been having nighttime rallies, quite often.
The idea of Le Pen taking power in the middle of an ongoing state of emergency is really fucking scary to me. (is the SOE definitely still going on?)
She also said that thanks to Le Pen's advisor Phillipot they are getting a lot of young gay voters on board. She has been arguing with gay friends, reminding them it was just the other day the FN was calling them "perverts". People really have the shortest political memories. Makes me despair.
She was very worried about the dismantling of x y and z at the hands of Macron if he wins. However she thinks Le Pen will win, whatever the polls say. And expressed what has been said here by Dom T IIRC that if she does win she'll be weak, so maybe its better than Macron winning. Of course I disagreed, but she seemed shockingly blasé to the growing power of the right in Europe. It left me with the impression some people (like me) feel terror at the prospect, while others don't. She is white and I think native born French, which may be a factor, who knows. I found it hard to look at someone basically shrug and say 'they're as bad as each other'...
(that bits not true)I asked about the mood in Paris etc and things I gleaned according to her included:
The French police are rampant at the moment...the state of emergency has made them rabid. The truncheon rape is representative, although not uncommon. Supposedly the French police have been having nighttime rallies, quite often.
The idea of Le Pen taking power in the middle of an ongoing state of emergency is really fucking scary to me. (is the SOE definitely still going on?)
She also said that thanks to Le Pen's advisor Phillipot they are getting a lot of young gay voters on board. She has been arguing with gay friends, reminding them it was just the other day the FN was calling them "perverts". People really have the shortest political memories. Makes me despair.
She was very worried about the dismantling of x y and z at the hands of Macron if he wins. However she thinks Le Pen will win, whatever the polls say. And expressed what has been said here by Dom T IIRC that if she does win she'll be weak, so maybe its better than Macron winning. Of course I disagreed, but she seemed shockingly blasé to the growing power of the right in Europe. It left me with the impression some people (like me) feel terror at the prospect, while others don't. She is white and I think native born French, which may be a factor, who knows. I found it hard to look at someone basically shrug and say 'they're as bad as each other'...
J Ed
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hot air baboon
Well-Known Member
ska invita
back on the other side
"Le Pen rose 1 percentage point" - seems like a statistically irrelevant clickbait headline, thank god
J Ed
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What's important is that it is indicative of trajectory, maybe, rather than the actual increase.
Macron is in London today to meet with May, interestingly May is not meeting or engaging with Le Pen. Then again she didn't engage with Trump either, and in many ways Trump is more extreme than Le Pen. Certainly without a Trump victory I can't see either Farage or Le Pen defending the Muslim ban.
J Ed
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IMO this, along with considerable support amongst 18 to 25 year olds is potentially a harbringer of the fact that Marine Le Pen might outperform the polls.
J Ed
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BTW, I hate to do this but I'm going to do it anyway. The comments on that article illustrate a lot.
Jumps straight into essentialist discourse about the inherent badness of white gay men (and by extension of course, all white men, the straight ones are undoubtedly worse), all would be well if not for their faults which of course are inherent and unchangeable rather than something which exists in relation to wider social conditions and politics. There is no point even trying to win over these white gay men, since they are basically born proto-FN supporters, because they are white men. So instead the best thing to do is to condemn them and their very existence.
IMO at least some, I don't know how much or even if it is possible to quantify the amount, of this surge in support of far-right politicians amongst LGBT people is a consequence of years of left-wing apologism for Islamist homophobia.
Jumps straight into essentialist discourse about the inherent badness of white gay men (and by extension of course, all white men, the straight ones are undoubtedly worse), all would be well if not for their faults which of course are inherent and unchangeable rather than something which exists in relation to wider social conditions and politics. There is no point even trying to win over these white gay men, since they are basically born proto-FN supporters, because they are white men. So instead the best thing to do is to condemn them and their very existence.
IMO at least some, I don't know how much or even if it is possible to quantify the amount, of this surge in support of far-right politicians amongst LGBT people is a consequence of years of left-wing apologism for Islamist homophobia.
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Shortly after she went to visit the cowboy, the soldier, the Indian and the construction worker.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Silly orange prick has apparently learned the lessons of the Clinton/Remain campaigns
Not the lesson I took from them.
Got to be a decent chance this prick will win.
J Ed
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Reform the people not the system. Incredible misanthropy, there are people who will vote for this?
Riklet
procrastinación
However bad he is, we on the left are delluding ourselves if we shrug our shoulders and say they are all as bad as each other.
He is undoubtedly more of a progressive, enemy we know, easier to predict enemy than Le Penn leading an emboldened far-right to populist power in Western Europe.
I think a lot of people willl look at Brexit and Trump and vote for the devil they know here, second round. Which is obvs part of the problem, sure.
He is undoubtedly more of a progressive, enemy we know, easier to predict enemy than Le Penn leading an emboldened far-right to populist power in Western Europe.
I think a lot of people willl look at Brexit and Trump and vote for the devil they know here, second round. Which is obvs part of the problem, sure.
J Ed
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No matter who wins in this election, Le Pen wins. If Le Pen wins outright, the FN achieve an incredible level of legitimacy and if Macron wins they become the official political opposition (if they are not that effectively anyway) to a failing neoliberal system that will continue to make the lives of everyone worse at a pace that accelerates every day.
Raheem
Well-Known Member
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
No it doesn't work like that. The FN has a tiny presence in parliament. Potentially whoever wins the presidency may have to work with a prime minister and other ministers from another party. Macron will have to do this, as would Le Pen. The fact that Le Pen would have to do so is the strongest argument there is to say that she would be a weak president - she'd be at war with her own government.
emanymton
A cat politely sat on the flaming gardener.
I don't see how this contradicts what J Ed said?
J Ed
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Yes, I know this. I am factoring that information into my opinion as to why Le Pen winning wouldn't be a complete disaster and may actually be preferable to a win down the road after the FN is able to consolidate more power under a Macron government.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Likewise. And it reduces strength to the electoral/parliamentary realm. J Ed's right, unless there's a bit upset and Le Pen doesn't makes it to the second round FN will come out of this with a 'win'
hot air baboon
Well-Known Member
....she said four years ago that the 2022 election was her real goal...
Marine Le Pen won’t be president this time. She’s still winning
Marine Le Pen won’t be president this time. She’s still winning
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
I was picking up on the idea that the FN becomes the official opposition. They may in some senses become an unofficial opposition, but in no sense the official one.
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
I think there have always been gay conservatives though. I think it's a mistake to attribute that to the left though I think a few things have changed in recent years which makes ordinary gay people more likely to be sympathetic to far right policies
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
I'm with ska on that. It may well be that she would be a weak president, even likely a chaotic one who struggles to form any kind of government at all. But that's no reason to think of a Le Pen FN victory as preferable even to a Fillon victory let alone a Macron one. Let them win now rather than later? Surely not. Oppose them now and oppose them later. These are dangerous forces to be unleashing.
J Ed
Follow Back Pro Expropriation
I'm not letting anyone do anything, I don't have a vote and the couple of French people that I know who talk about politics are voting for Macron. They are also convinced that Le Pen cannot win, because they don't know anyone who admits that they intend to vote FN. Reminds me a lot of the sort of thing said by their counterparts here prior to Brexit and in the US prior to the election of Trump.
krtek a houby
Anger is Hi-NRG
Two of Le Pen's staffers have been "taken into custody" - allegedly paid parliamentary funds for jobs that didn't exist. Bodyguard & chief of staff have been placed in custody...
Is it not more that they received funds for working for FN MEPs but were apparently doing political work for the FN instead?
French people I know are currently pooh pooing Macron because he hasn't published his political programme yet (meant to be happening at the start of March) which is seen as cutting it v fine indeed. These are quite non-political people but the French do love a political programme.
People seem to be resigned to Le Pen getting through to the second round. Which feels v different to the general horror expressed when her father got through in 2002 because then people didn't believe it could actually happen.
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