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French Presidential elections

hot air baboon said:
I doubt "it" had any effect in the US - their revolutionary groups were all bullet riddled corpses or inmates by 1975 or thereabouts weren't they - Action Directe in France were going well into the 80's & I'n guessing French society provides much more of an ecosystem that can nurture strands of opinion like this than the US - the Green voters in the Blue Wall states may want to ponder their decision though

rather than naivity about the nature of say Trump its seems the populist voter behaviour is more akin to children who want to get back at their parents after a row by hiding in the attic & scaring the **** out of them by ignoring all their increasingly frantic calls - Michael Moore expressed it brilliantly in that speech before the election - in terms of it working out opinion seems to be divided on whether the Democrats can purge themsleves of the corporate/Clinton faction & associated ideology & become something better or mutate into the new vehicle for the neo-cons.... like the french revolution its too early to tell as a man once said
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It was Mao, and he was talking about the 'revolution' of 1968, not 1789. :)
 
Raheem said:
Latest polling has Macron coming ahead of Fillon for the first time. Hamon's polling is up about 7% compared to Valls, most of which seems to have come off Melanchon. Le Pen is where she was, pretty much, she tops the first round and then loses by a landslide in the second.

Présidentielle 2017 : Les intentions de vote à 2 mois et demi du scrutin
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I would be very cautious indeed.

The polls had Trump nowhere, and indeed, did not forecast a Conservative win.

My gut feeling, as I had with Trump, is a narrow win for Le Pen. I really hope I'm wrong.
 
Sasaferrato said:
I would be very cautious indeed.

The polls had Trump nowhere, and indeed, did not forecast a Conservative win.

My gut feeling, as I had with Trump, is a narrow win for Le Pen. I really hope I'm wrong.
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Yes, polls tell you something about what is happening now, and nothing directly about what will happen in three months' time.

But careful not to confuse your memory of what you expected to happen with what the polls were saying. At this distance to the election, the US polls were extremely tight, with Trump leading in some of them. Fast forward about a week, and most polls had Trump ahead. This poll has Le Pen on 35% to Macron's 65%. We are not in a re-run of the same story, and it would take a lot for the ending to turn out the same, even if it is not impossible.
 
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Sasaferrato said:
I would be very cautious indeed.

The polls had Trump nowhere, and indeed, did not forecast a Conservative win.
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Absolute rubbish, Trump was never nowhere in the polls. Exactly how much he was behind Clinton varied during the campaign, when the 'grab them by the pussy' story broke Clinton the polls had Clinton opening up a clear lead, but that narrowed considerably by the time of election day.
 
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redsquirrel said:
Absolute rubbish, Trump was never nowhere in the polls. Exactly how much he was behind varied her the campaign, when the 'grab them by the pussy' story broke Clinton the polls has Clinton opening up a clear lead but that narrowed considerably by the time of election day.
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And tbf he didn't even have a lead on election day.

Looks like Fillon may be finished. Macron now leading behind Le Pen, and all the polls I've seen have Le Pen losing heavily in the second round, particularly to Macron. It will take a minor miracle for Le Pen to win from here. What kind of agenda Macron will follow is hard to say - he looks like he would do a lot of what Fillon intends, but he's not a Thatcherite ideologue: his words seem still very grounded in the French way of speaking in which it is the state's place to regulate things like working hours. I don't doubt that he would be pretty crap.

Not sure if any polling has been done pitting Melenchon vs Le Pen in the second round. Can't find any.
 
redsquirrel said:
This piece criticises liberal anti-fascism such as that of HnH/Searchlight etc, as does this piece which argues
And then there's this piece (actually by the AFA rather than the IWCA, but many ways the starting gun)
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The second link is bust there btw, but theres plenty to go on from the first IWCA piece and the AFA one.

Both great reads and well argued, and I'm not coming to this debate with a I Know Best attitude, just responding with my gut really...clearly this is something the authors of both pieces have given a lot of time, thought and experience to, and I respect that.

But I still have disagreements. The main case made in the IWCA piece is that rather than having people make arguments to voters to Never Vote BNP (insert FN for the case of this thread), work should be done to provide an alternative for people to vote for...which is exactly what the IWCA are trying to do, with some frustration no doubt.

Is it a zero sum game though? Why is it a case of only doing one or the other? Of course we need a real left alternative with the interests of the working class at heart, and lots of work goes into trying to provide one at all times, from all corners. The reasons for the failure of all the work is very complex - if there was a simple answer we could easily solve it.

In the meantime, the far right marches on........

I'm not actively involved in any anti-fascist activism, but i am massively grateful to all those that are. Every time the far right takes to the street I am grateful to those that are always there to not let them march in peace. Where would we be in this country were it not for that work?

The parliamentary far-right marches in the corridors of power instead, but i think it needs challenging just the same. The threat is increasing, and their tactics are more sophisticated.

The fact is its a massive position of weakness saying Please vote for anyone else but them, but thats where we are. Of course we need an alternative in party politics. But whatever is happening on our shitty political landscape, I still hold that a line needs to be drawn and defended.

The IWCA author addresses this:
And even though Searchlight has conceded the BNP needs to be ‘defeated politically’ it nevertheless insists, almost as if it has the likes of the IWCA in mind, that ‘those who argue for a solely class based approach to anti-fascism … will only hand dozens of seats to the BNP and quicken its electoral advance.’ As an analysis it is thoroughly risible. For if, as they have correctly concluded, New Labour’s ‘drifting to the centre’ helped cause the BNP advance, how can the cross-class political alternative they propose be anything but a compound on what is already happening?

Now that the BNP have captured two MEP seats anyway, the refusal to engage with working class concerns and voters looks even more absurd. And what, after all in the scheme of things, are a couple of dozen extra BNP seats in the short term when both the price of strategic failure and the potential reward of strategic success are so great?
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That last line seems to sum up the disagreement we're having.
1. A couple of dozen extra seats are a massive deal.
There are some good comments at the end of the piece, one from an IWCA member who says that the IWCA was born from a "militant anti-fascist background" and is made up of "predominantly young white men". By definition these are people who are confident in themselves to face down the threat of the BNP, but there are many other members of the community who are not...for whom the threat is much more acute.... I don't think this piece makes any address to that. My feeling is whatever can be done to not let them get a foothold must be done.

2. "...in the short term when both the price of strategic failure and the potential reward of strategic success are so great?"
Suggests a potential reward in the future? Based on what? Where will it come from, how long will it take, and how does opposing fascist parties really stop this from arising?
Im afraid I don't buy the argument at all. Like I said, its not an either or, zero-sum game - if theres an alternative to be had, it'll be there, and we shall rejoice in it! Its not the fault of anti-fascist groups like HNH or SL that the gap exists.

In the BNP election cases, there people have the good option to vote for none of the parites standing if they feel they are totally unrepresented. Its not about getting people to Vote Labour, which seems to be the gist of the AFA point you quoted.
Its a very different situation in the two-horse second-round French presidential system.

Won't comment more as this is way too long already

ETA: this just popped up in my feed from Michael Roberts - not read it yet France: penned in
 
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ska invita said:
1. A couple of dozen extra seats are a massive deal.
There are some good comments at the end of the piece, one from an IWCA member who says that the IWCA was born from a "militant anti-fascist background" and is made up of "predominantly young white men". By definition these are people who are confident in themselves to face down the threat of the BNP, but there are many other members of the community who are not...for whom the threat is much more acute.... I don't think this piece makes any address to that. My feeling is whatever can be done to not let them get a foothold must be done.

2. "...in the short term when both the price of strategic failure and the potential reward of strategic success are so great?"
Suggests a potential reward in the future? Based on what? Where will it come from, how long will it take, and how does opposing fascist parties really stop this from arising?
Im afraid I don't buy the argument at all. Like I said, its not an either or, zero-sum game - if theres an alternative to be had, it'll be there, and we shall rejoice in it! Its not the fault of anti-fascist groups like HNH or SL that the gap exists.
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Completely agree with both these points. Fascists getting elected matters. Just ask anyone who's had to live under an FN council in France. Just ask an Algerian or Moroccan or Cameroonian who's had to live under an FN council in France. In the past, when I've lived in places with BNP candidates at local elections, it's mattered to me not just whether or not they were elected but whether or not they got 2 percent or 20 percent. 20 percent tells me something very depressing and disturbing about where I live.
 
Raheem said:
Latest polling has Macron coming ahead of Fillon for the first time. Hamon's polling is up about 7% compared to Valls, most of which seems to have come off Melanchon. Le Pen is where she was, pretty much, she tops the first round and then loses by a landslide in the second.

Présidentielle 2017 : Les intentions de vote à 2 mois et demi du scrutin
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English translation
Google Translate

From that link it says Hamon (the Socialist Party candidate who Michael Roberts describes as the Corbyn/Sanders candidate) has polling which jumped from 7% to 17% in the last month... things could still move a lot before the first round vote...
 
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ska invita said:
ETA: this just popped up in my feed from Michael Roberts - not read it yet France: penned in
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...piece ends with

"So this upcoming election is important. French capital wants a president elected who will introduce policies designed to reverse the long-term secular decline in the profitability of capital and put French labour in its place. For this, they look to Fillon or Macron – either will do. But votes do not always work out as the strategists want or expect – as we have seen in the UK with Brexit and Trump in the US.

It is still unlikely that Le Pen will enter the Elysee Palace or that Hamon or Melenchon will combine to enable a leftist candidate to get into the second round and defeat Le Pen. But it’s possible. But whatever the outcome, the next French president will face major challenges with an economy that has sluggish growth and investment, high unemployment and growing ethnic divisions. And that is not even considering the probability that there will be a new global slump during the next presidency."



Is there any chance of that at all? What would happen? Melenchon would stand down and encourage a vote for the more popular Hamon ahead of the election?
Is there a recent precedent for that happening in France?
 
ska invita said:
Is there any chance of that at all? What would happen? Melenchon would stand down and encourage a vote for the more popular Hamon ahead of the election?
Is there a recent precedent for that happening in France?
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Looking at the numbers, you would think that if Mélenchon withdrew and backed Hamon, it would make Hamon favourite for the Presidency. He might even top the first round. That's assuming the bulk of Mélenchon's supporters go over, but there are bound to be some that won't. At the same time though, Fillon's numbers don't look stable because he's got a sleaze thing going on. If he continues to lose support, Macron will probably be the main beneficiary, so might then go ahead of Hamon. You could even have both Hamon and Macron both overtaking Le Pen in the first round (although she will also be likely to benefit from a fall in support for Fillon). Then you could have another scenario where Fillon withdraws and a lot will then depend on who replaces him. If it's Juppé, you'd have to imagine that he'd be unstoppable.

Mélenchon has said he will not withdraw, and it would seem in character for him not to. But he must be under a certain amount of pressure, because the only way his vote is going to go now is probably down, and Hamon would be likely to give him a good deal right now (in terms of influence over policy and a job).
 
redsquirrel said:
Precisely, the logic of LBJ and Ska position is that they should be arguing for a vote for Macron in the 1st round.
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Looking at the recent polling, the logic of my position would be tilting towards a vote for Hamon in the first round, if anything. Unless the polls have this very badly wrong re the second round, if Le Pen stays top in the first round, whoever comes second will become president. My first pref would be Melanchon, but I'd be tempted to switch tactically to Hamon if I thought Melanchon stood no chance (and I'm sure he does stand no chance). In some ways that would be a tougher thing to do than a pragmatic vote for a shithead to keep out fascists in the second round, given how much of Melanchon's platform I heartily agree with.
 
I should make it clear that I’m not a member of the IWCA so anything I say shouldn’t be taken as their views

ska invita said:
But I still have disagreements. The main case made in the IWCA piece is that rather than having people make arguments to voters to Never Vote BNP (insert FN for the case of this thread), work should be done to provide an alternative for people to vote for...which is exactly what the IWCA are trying to do, with some frustration no doubt.


Is it a zero sum game though? Why is it a case of only doing one or the other? Of course we need a real left alternative with the interests of the working class at heart, and lots of work goes into trying to provide one at all times, from all corners.
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You seem to have ignored an equally important point - the idea that liberal anti-fascism* actually, in the long term, helps the hard-right. If you believe that, as I do, then it’s a nonsense to get involved with such campaigns.

But even if you don’t see liberal anti-fascism as part of the problem I don’t see how it’s possible to both attempt to build an alternative to the current political agenda and at the same time support campaigns that work to block that alternative forming. Any pro-w/c campaign is going to have to be made in the face of (neo)liberal opposition, how then after attacking the Labour Party, for example, do you suddenly backtrack and hitch yourself to the people you’ve been opposing and tell people they must vote Labour to keep out the BNP? There’s also the fact that some of the stiffest opposition to any alternative comes the centre-left itself. As mentioned in the first pieces I linked to
IWCA said:
It should be noted in passing that the tactics pioneered by Searchlight for use against the BNP have also been used by the favoured ‘mainstream parties’ against the ‘extremist IWCA’. Once, a particularly reckless libel cost Labour a cool £15,000 plus a hefty chunk for legal cost.
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I think if you ask many of the people involved in the IWCA they’ll tell you that Labour spent as much/more time attacking them than it did the Tories. The centre-left is always attempting to block any alternative on it’s flank, I mean I think Greens, PC, SNP people would tell you same. And I think that’s true throughout the West, see Greece, Spain, Australia, USA, France.

ska invita said:
My feeling is whatever can be done to not let them get a foothold must be done
<snipped>
Im afraid I don't buy the argument at all. Like I said, its not an either or, zero-sum game - if theres an alternative to be had, it'll be there, and we shall rejoice in it! Its not the fault of anti-fascist groups like HNH or SL that the gap exists.
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Well I’d point out they’ve already got a foothold, indeed in some cases, such as France, they got a damn site more than that. I think the hard-right vote in the UK is softer than in France but I think it’s starting to be normalised and harden. Io continue with liberal anti-fascism is only going to exacerbate that process. And I certainly don’t agree with you about HnH and SL, as outlined above these organisations and the like are the opponents of any pro-w/c alternative.

ska invita said:
In the BNP election cases, there people have the good option to vote for none of the parites standing if they feel they are totally unrepresented. Its not about getting people to Vote Labour, which seems to be the gist of the AFA point you quoted.

Its a very different situation in the two-horse second-round French presidential system.
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I don’t understand that first sentence. If you’re not voting for any of the parties standing then you’re not voting to keep out the hard-right. I also don’t see the difference between voting to keep out the BNP/UKIP and voting to keep out the FN in France, you keep saying they’re different but you’ve not said why. Sure it's a different electoral system but the underlying politics, backing the neo-liberals who are responsible for the rise of the hard-right, is the same.



*For simplicities sake I’m using liberal anti-fascism as a short hand for liberal anti-hard right so I’m including anti-UKIP stuff in there too.

EDIT: Incidentally you are aware of Searchlights interaction with the security services aren't you?
 
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The last set of posts illustrate rather well the issue of voting to keep out the fascists. It's gone from vote Fillon with your nose held to stop Le Pen to vote Hamon and hope Mèlèchon drops out so the PS can spend another five years attacking the workers.
 
BSyG9I7IEAEK3he.jpg large.jpg

The Fillons bought the home in 1984 for €440,000, and it has since been re-valued at €650,000 in 2013 in Fillon's declaration of assets. :hmm:
 
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hot air baboon said:
WikiLeaks teases thousands of files relating to French Presidential election candidates

WikiLeaks has turned its focus to the upcoming French presidential election, revealing that its archives contain thousands of potentially sensitive documents on three candidates. A series of posts on its Twitter account targeted Republican Francois Fillon, far-right leader Marine Le Pen and independent candidate Emmanuel Macron.
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Hamon to win then.

More tv expose tonight on Fillon-Juppe under pressure to run.

Wonder what wiki has on Macron.
 
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Do those beaten in the first round then vocally back a finalist and exhort their supporters to vote for that finalist? This is the first time I've paid any real attention to a French presidential election.
 
stavros said:
Do those beaten in the first round then vocally back a finalist and exhort their supporters to vote for that finalist? This is the first time I've paid any real attention to a French presidential election.
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Pretty much, with some exceptions. In the 2015 Regional elections the PS went even further, withdrawing it's lists in the second round in order to support an anti-FN vote.
 
Fillon's bent as arseholes and caught bang to rights.

A large part of Brexit and Trump is a feeling that the political elite are grabbing it all for themselves at the expense of the ordinary people suffering with austerity.

Le Pen's a shoo-in.
 
Bahnhof Strasse said:
Fillon's bent as arseholes and caught bang to rights.

A large part of Brexit and Trump is a feeling that the political elite are grabbing it all for themselves at the expense of the ordinary people suffering with austerity.

Le Pen's a shoo-in.
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For the second round or for the presidency? The former I agree with, the latter not.
 
redsquirrel said:
For the second round or for the presidency? The former I agree with, the latter not.
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I don't know enough about the process.

What I do know is:

Yer average Frenchman has been hurt by austerity, his job-for-life is gone, financial uncertainty is the new normal. Throw in Charlie Hebdo, Thalys train, Bataclan, Saint Quentin, Magnaville,Promenade des Anglais, a priest slaughtered at his altar, various shit in Belgium etc...

This average Frenchman is being offered: Same old, same old by people who have been happily lining their own pockets for years and continuing integration with the rest of the EU, or a racist who is offering job security, a return to financial comfort and a solution to these endless terror attacks. She may well be a racist, she may well not be able to deliver. But yet again the options are more of the same vs. something else and the something else is what people are after.

So yeah, maybe 1st round, 2nd round, won't get enough support even if she becomes president, I really don't know the figures. All I see is how shit the status quo is only one person in the running that is offering anything but the status quo.
 
Bahnhof Strasse said:
I don't know enough about the process.

What I do know is:

Yer average Frenchman has been hurt by austerity, his job-for-life is gone, financial uncertainty is the new normal. Throw in Charlie Hebdo, Thalys train, Bataclan, Saint Quentin, Magnaville,Promenade des Anglais, a priest slaughtered at his altar, various shit in Belgium etc...

This average Frenchman is being offered: Same old, same old by people who have been happily lining their own pockets for years and continuing integration with the rest of the EU, or a racist who is offering job security, a return to financial comfort and a solution to these endless terror attacks. She may well be a racist, she may well not be able to deliver. But yet again the options are more of the same vs. something else and the something else is what people are after.

So yeah, maybe 1st round, 2nd round, won't get enough support even if she becomes president, I really don't know the figures. All I see is how shit the status quo is only one person in the running that is offering anything but the status quo.
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That doesn't sound so much like a shoo-in.
 
redsquirrel said:
For the second round or for the presidency? The former I agree with, the latter not.
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Never say never. Attempted terrorist attack today at the Louvre only thwarted because the attacker was shot by a soldier, a cluster of those sorts of attacks or a 'spectacular' attack prior to the election could well be enough to swing it.
 
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