French Presidential elections

[redsquirrel]

Never say never. Attempted terrorist attack today at the Louvre only thwarted because the attacker was shot by a soldier, a cluster of those sorts of attacks or a 'spectacular' attack prior to the election could well be enough to swing it.

I'm not saying she couldn't win (thought I still think the odds her against her), I'm saying she's not a shoo in to win.

 

[J Ed]

I'm not saying she couldn't win (thought I still think the odds her against her), I'm saying she's not a shoo in to win.

Yes, I agree entirely.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

That doesn't sound so much like a shoo-in.

Wanna put yer money where your mouth is? I'll bung £50 to server fund if she doesn't become president, will you match that if she does?

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

I'm not saying she couldn't win (thought I still think the odds her against her), I'm saying she's not a shoo in to win.

With everyone else being un-votable, what does that make her?

 

[Raheem]

Wanna put yer money where your mouth is? I'll bung £50 to server fund if she doesn't become president, will you match that if she does?

I think you might be missing the point. I don't think she can't win. It's very unlikely, but upsets do happen.

But you seem to be saying she's a shoo-in, although you don't know whether she'll actually win. I'll bet you £500 that doesn't really make sense.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

But you seem to be saying she's a shoo-in

With everyone else being un-votable, what does that make her?

 

[hot air baboon]

its going to have to be 9/11 on steroids - a dirty bomb under the Eiffel Tower or something - to create an earthquake like that...if mowing down 80 people with a lorry and ritually slaughtering a priest in a Church hasn't brought down the current establishment then another attack on those lines isn't going to the trick I'd have thought

 

[Raheem]

The Wikileaks thing is interesting from a conspiracy theory point-of-view, if you buy the idea that the FSB were behind the Podesta leak.

 

[stavros]

Pretty much, with some exceptions. In the 2015 Regional elections the PS went even further, withdrawing it's lists in the second round in order to support an anti-FN vote.

I guess the subtext of my question was whether Fillon would back the anti-Le Pen candidate in the run-off, be it Hamon, Macron or Mélenchen.

 

[redsquirrel]

I guess the subtext of my question was whether Fillon would back the anti-Le Pen candidate in the run-off, be it Hamon, Macron or Mélenchen.

Not sure, the centre-right has been less keen on urging it's supporters to vote to keep out the FN than the centre-left (for example it didn't withdraw it's lists where it finished behind in the last set of regional elections)

I think we can discount the Méléchon scenario, with the other two you've got various possibilities from an offical 'vote anti-FN' to more un-official stuff. I don't know enough to say for sure.

 

[Old Spark]

Wanna put yer money where your mouth is? I'll bung £50 to server fund if she doesn't become president, will you match that if she does?

Assuming France is relatively peaceful until the election then she has a good chance of topping the poll in the first ballot but being beaten soundly by whoever she runs off against in the second.

However who knows what will happen if France is hit by another large scale terrorist attack.The Louvre seems to have been a lone wolf attack from a guy who came in from Egypt.But something more dramatic would require home grown jihadists and planning and resources.Nervous times.

 

[Raheem]

I guess the subtext of my question was whether Fillon would back the anti-Le Pen candidate in the run-off, be it Hamon, Macron or Mélenchen.

In the past, there's been an understanding that the main two parties would recommend voting for each other in the event of a second round against the FN. That was broken last year by Sarkozy who, as party leader, refused to back the PS in the regional elections. But it cost LR a lot of second round votes.

So I think Fillon would be likely to recommend tactical voting against the FN if he is not in the second round.

 

[Old Spark]

In the past, there's been an understanding that the main two parties would recommend voting for each other in the event of a second round against the FN. That was broken last year by Sarkozy who, as party leader, refused to back the PS in the regional elections. But it cost LR a lot of second round votes.

So I think Fillon would be likely to recommend tactical voting against the FN if he is not in the second round.

Fillons toast-poll figure dropping like a stone.New candidate for LR required -you wonder whether they have an internal party rule to deal with this emergency.

 

[Casually Red]

I don't know enough about the process.

What I do know is:

Yer average Frenchman has been hurt by austerity, his job-for-life is gone, financial uncertainty is the new normal. Throw in Charlie Hebdo, Thalys train, Bataclan, Saint Quentin, Magnaville,Promenade des Anglais, a priest slaughtered at his altar, various shit in Belgium etc...

This average Frenchman is being offered: Same old, same old by people who have been happily lining their own pockets for years and continuing integration with the rest of the EU, or a racist who is offering job security, a return to financial comfort and a solution to these endless terror attacks. She may well be a racist, she may well not be able to deliver. But yet again the options are more of the same vs. something else and the something else is what people are after.

So yeah, maybe 1st round, 2nd round, won't get enough support even if she becomes president, I really don't know the figures. All I see is how shit the status quo is only one person in the running that is offering anything but the status quo.

Add to that widespread disillusionment with the EU set up as well, and all it's corruption and aloofness . She can hoover up votes on that issue too. It's pretty significant . The Brexit factor will be an issue for many over there . The unthinkable is no longer all that unthinkable . Her promise of a referendum on eu membership will prove attractive to many .

Interesting to note on this occasion compared to the US clownshow there's no talk from the liberal sector about gender playing a role in how people should vote . It's bollocks all of a sudden . It always was mind .

That said I'm looking forward to seeing what wiki leaks has on Le Pens crew in particular . They're a well shady bunch so there's bound to be a few humdingers in amongst that lot .

 

[stavros]

New candidate for LR required

I think PS voters would be far more comfortable backing Juppé against Le Pen than Fillon.

 

[ska invita]

Looks like Le Pen is going for Trumps War With The Media strategy http://www.politico.eu/article/journalists-rough-treatment-highlights-tension-between-le-pen-and-media/

 

[Casually Red]

Fillon definitely seems to be a dead duck by this stage . How that will affect the " socialist " merchant banker who wants an EU superstate and to make it easier to sack workers remains to be seen .

 

[Raheem]

Mélenchon has just become the first politician ever to give a live speech as a hologram.

Wonder if this sort of thing would qualify for Hamon's robotax.

Either way, if you're a left-of-centre sci-fi fan this election is shaping up quite well for you.

 

[mather]

Mélenchon has just become the first politician ever to give a live speech as a hologram.

Narendra Modi beat him to it back in 2014.

 

[Casually Red]

Obi wan Kenobi beat everyone to it a long time ago, in a galaxy far away .

 

[Dom Traynor]

Princess Leia was before Obi Wan

 

[mather]

Melenchon also grew up in my former hometown of Tangier, if he won the election, would he be the first foreign born person to become the president of France?

 

[The Boy]

Melenchon also grew up in my former hometown of Tangier, if he won the election, would he be the first foreign born person to become the president of France?

No.

 

[classicdish]

Giscard d'Estaing (President from 1974 to 1981) was born in Germany.

Valéry Giscard d'Estaing - Wikipedia

 

[Raheem]

Narendra Modi beat him to it back in 2014.

No, that was pre-recorded.

 

[Old Spark]

As Fillons star waxes and wanes -FN ,Le Pen and her father are alleged to have been on the fiddle.

Les trois affaires qui menacent Marine Le Pen et le Front national

 

[redsquirrel]

I doubt it'll have the effect that the Fillon allegations had, FN vote is pretty rusted on now and Le Pen can play the 'liberal press want's to bring me down' card.

 

[Old Spark]

i can only assume you have not previously been a keen observer of labour party internal matters.

I doubt it'll have the effect that the Fillon allegations had, FN vote is pretty rusted on now and Le Pen can play the 'liberal press want's to bring me down' card.

Probably right as the other candidates will go for each other over the next few weeks until its clear who will run against her.Her poll rating is coming down a bit but slowly.

Meanwhile Fillon digs in.

François Fillon admits error but refuses to quit French presidential race

 

[Pickman's model]

Melenchon also grew up in my former hometown of Tangier, if he won the election, would he be the first foreign born person to become the president of France?

all of them have been foreign, no british need apply.

 

[mather]

?