Bitcoin discussion and news

[NoXion]

Not as bad as talking about breaking the law in a public interview, but it's indicative of the mindset of these people:

FTX’s inner circle had a secret chat group called ‘Wirefraud’

The revelation comes as founders Sam Bankman-Fried and Zixiao “Gary” Wang, engineer Nishad Singh and ex-Alameda Research CEO Caroline Ellison face a hearing.

www.afr.com

https://archive.vn/cw8Ma

 

[littlebabyjesus]

He’s going to go to prison for a very long time, isn’t he?

Looks like it. Strange how he didn't run. Terra Luna guy Do Kwon is on the run. He knows what he faces. At the very least, get yourself to somewhere with no extradition treaty with the US. Don't lounge around in The Bahamas chatting shit on the internet. Bankman-Fraud seems not to realise the trouble he's in.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Weirdly with all this stuff going on, bitcoin had a bit of a surge in price today. Its various mini ups and downs are puzzling to say the least.

 

[kabbes]

Weirdly with all this stuff going on, bitcoin had a bit of a surge in price today. Its various mini ups and downs are puzzling to say the least.

It seems to be quite dependent on expectations of and movements in the US yield curve. Inflation came in lower than expected today, which reduced expected future increases in US rates, hence the mini increase in Bitcoin price.

 

[gosub]

It seems to be quite dependent on expectations of and movements in the US yield curve. Inflation came in lower than expected today, which reduced expected future increases in US rates, hence the mini increase in Bitcoin price.

Slowing a rate of increase isn't an actual pivot. yield is still inverted, still got a while to go yet

 

[kabbes]

Slowing a rate of increase isn't an actual pivot. yield is still inverted, still got a while to go yet

Which can also be expected to drive up Bitcoin again even if future increases come in lower than expected, or even if they suggest there are further signs of a reduction in future increases compared with expectation.

It’s the actual results compared with what was expected that matters for a change (ie actual inflation), not the current expectation of the future (ie current yield curve)

Whether future increases due to yield changes can overcome the likely price collapses due to the systemic failure of the system, though, is another matter entirely. As Taleb put it, “picking up pennies in front of the steamroller”

 

[keybored]

Just a gut feeling, ya know?

Iswydt

 

[Flavour]

what a fucking idiot this ftx guy is, it baffles me how we was able to run such a successful scam

 

[t0bytoo]

I have a mate trying to launch (his third attempt at) a crypto/defi/dao something-or-other.

He is smitten by the people who make a lot of noise about how rich they are. I ask him - are you sure they are rich? If they were real billionaires would they bother making crappy youtube videos about how to make a lot of money.

I think the suckers are easy pickings. Greed and all that...

 

[t0bytoo]

I think SBF was probably deluded (holy shit, look what I can get away with!), rather than wilfully executing a scam.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I think SBF was probably deluded (holy shit, look what I can get away with!), rather than wilfully executing a scam.

That's more or less what he is currently trying to get people to believe. 'Stupid, not as clever as he thought he was' rather than evil. It's bollocks, of course.

 

[gosub]

Which can also be expected to drive up Bitcoin again even if future increases come in lower than expected, or even if they suggest there are further signs of a reduction in future increases compared with expectation.

It’s the actual results compared with what was expected that matters for a change (ie actual inflation), not the current expectation of the future (ie current yield curve)

Whether future increases due to yield changes can overcome the likely price collapses due to the systemic failure of the system, though, is another matter entirely. As Taleb put it, “picking up pennies in front of the steamroller”

The expectation of a slower rate rise is pretty much baked in at this point. Inflation got out of control after the FED spent about a year not dealing with it instead calling it transitory, but now it it is their principle focus you looking at models that call for interest rates to be a point above inflation...so still a while to go ...won't get that high though coz Phillip's curve....rates going up has recessionary effect and people get more more scared for their jobs than using their discretionary spend on frivolous things.

But there is a lag between hiking rates and impact showing in real economy and people's thinking though already some uncomfortableness showing about amount of unemployment (the other factor Fed is supposed to care about). Other prob States have is way US rig the unemployment numbers..stay unemployed too long and you fall off the end of system .


Bitcoin though seems to have correlation in its bear rallies with fall in value of dollar though looks more a gaffer than real value especially with overhaul in crypto that's coming

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

I think SBF was probably deluded (holy shit, look what I can get away with!), rather than wilfully executing a scam.

I don't think there's really a line with this stuff. I mean if you look at your other post, whatever your mate is up to and the supposedly rich people he looks up to, it's almost certainly going to be something which most people would recognise as at best borderline fraudulent. But probably seen as legitimate within crypto circles. Once you're swimming in that pool is there a point where someone would look at what they're doing and go 'actually maybe this is a step to far'? I'm not sure there is for a most of them.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I don't think there's really a line with this stuff. I mean if you look at your other post, whatever your mate is up to and the supposedly rich people he looks up to, it's almost certainly going to be something which most people would recognise as at best borderline fraudulent. But probably seen as legitimate within crypto circles. Once you're swimming in that pool is there a point where someone would look at what they're doing and go 'actually maybe this is a step to far'? I'm not sure there is for a most of them.

With Bankman-Fraud, it's very clear, though. He was channelling money into his private hedge fund and doing so in a covert way. This wasn't some accidental deception. He wasn't an accidental multi-billionaire. I don't actually see the point in sending people like him to prison - there should be other, more creative, ways to punish, like giving him community service on a very small wage for the rest of his working life - but I can't see him getting less than 20 years for this in the US system. There will be too much anger from the people he defrauded for it to be less than that.

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

My basic assumption is that any and all billionaires are crooks. You simply don’t get to have that much wealth without being a scheming cunt.

 

[pbsmooth]

and he thought he was above the law of the plebs because his life of privilege up to this point had effectively told him so.

 

[gosub]

It seems to be quite dependent on expectations of and movements in the US yield curve. Inflation came in lower than expected today, which reduced expected future increases in US rates, hence the mini increase in Bitcoin price.

Curious if you still think that? After Powell yesterday Me peak rate might be lower and will take longer reaching it, though interest rates staying high and ain't going back south of 3%.

 

[kabbes]

Curious if you still think that? After Powell yesterday Me peak rate might be lower and will take longer reaching it, though interest rates staying high and ain't going back south of 3%.

Yesterday was a textbook example of it! Powell yesterday told the market to expect that rates would increase by more than they were already expecting (i.e. markets were expecting a peak of 5% and this got shifted to 5.25%-5.5% after Powell spoke). As a result, the dollar immediately jumped against other currencies, and Bitcoin immediately fell against the dollar by even more than that.

In other words, Bitcoin remains incredibly sensitive to movements in the USD yield curve.

I honestly think you're getting confused between the existing yield curve (i.e. the fact that rates are high and getting higher) and changes in the yield curve (i.e. rates now expected to get higher faster than previous expectations). Its the latter that matters for changes in asset prices -- existing yields are already baked in.

 

[gosub]

I don't think I am

It is a inverted yield curve. Shorter issue bonds have a better rate of return than longer ones and by quite a margin why cos markets can see mid term is a crock of shit so the longer term ones don't have to be competitive in order to be what they try to be...namely at the more safe harbour end of investments.

Powell pretty much said on 30/11 inflation slowing so rate rises could too and that's what he delivered to so really sure where you getting idea rates now rising faster. 0.5 < 0.75.

 

[kabbes]

I don't think I am

It is a inverted yield curve. Shorter issue bonds have a better rate of return than longer ones and by quite a margin why cos markets can see mid term is a crock of shit so the longer term ones don't have to be competitive in order to be what they try to be...namely at the more safe harbour end of investments.

Powell pretty much said on 30/11 inflation slowing so rate rises could too and that's what he delivered to so really sure where you getting idea rates now rising faster. 0.5 < 0.75.

The announcement yesterday was that future rates will continue to rise hard — a fair bit harder than the market was pricing in allowance for. That’s why equity prices dropped and the USD appreciated.

Your ongoing talk about the existing shape of the existing yield curve is not convincing me that you get the difference between what’s already been priced for and the impact of new information on prices. The fact the yield curve is inverted is irrelevant, because prices already reflect all that. What matters is that the market was expecting Powell to say something about the future that he then didn’t say.

 

[gosub]

The announcement yesterday was that future rates will continue to rise hard — a fair bit harder than the market was pricing in allowance for. That’s why equity prices dropped and the USD appreciated.

Your ongoing talk about the existing shape of the existing yield curve is not convincing me that you get the difference between what’s already been priced for and the impact of new information on prices. The fact the yield curve is inverted is irrelevant, because prices already reflect all that. What matters is that the market was expecting Powell to say something about the future that he then didn’t say.

Sounds like you listen to bits of the market that don't listen to Powell AT ALL
at the0.75 November meeting got told market during press conference was rising so went full bear that was when the bullshit artists were trying to sell 0.5 in advance and calling it a pivot. The 0.5 yesterday was as I said well telegraphed from 30 Nov onwards...only interesting thing he said yesterday was a potential (and defo not in thinking at mo) acceptance of not reaching 1% inflation target

 

[kabbes]

I'm talking about the interest rates implicit to actual prices, not rumours. You can work backwards from market prices to implicit yield expectations.

 

[gosub]

Well turns out you can also listen to what the bloke in charge of U S interest says he's doing and then actually does and not be surprised (or in your case surprised

Welcome to nginx!

 

[q_w_e_r_t_y]

Interesting to see how the whole SBF thing is being viewed outwith crypto circles.

Firstly, the SBF fraud has surprisingly little to do with crypto. His foundational scam was diverting fiat money that people sent FTX thinking they were buying bitcoin or ethereum with it to an Alameda slush fund

Secondly, the sheer extent of this fraud - not only in monetary terms - but also in its transparency is phenomenal. Its worth reading the initial report from the replacement CEO - key quote "Never in my career have I seen such an utter failure of corporate controls at every level of an organization, from the lack of financial statements to a complete failure of any internal controls or governance whatsoever". (This is the guy who dealt with the Enron bankrupcy). The details of it are shocking, no accountant; no board of directors, no list of employees, people paid by emojis, auditor based in the metaverse! This was not clever well concealed syphoning.

Third, it all took place right under the noses of regulators and journos. FTX was incorporated under multiple jurisdictions which require significant complience, he was all over the mainstream media as an autistic savaunt wonderboy who was going to save the world out of the goodness of his heart. He met with the Head of the SEC at least twice, as well as the chair of the Financial Services Committee several times. SBF was literally writing the rules on how crypto should be regulated, rules that are still on the table.

Fourth, there were very generous donations made to Dem politicians, he was Bidens second largest donor. He also gave generously to the police force of the Bahamas. There is also the whole involvement in the Ukraine donations.

Fifth - tether. Lots and lots of tether. Tonnes of tether. Where there is tether there is fraud.

My personal opinion is that FTX was always designed to implode, it just did so earlier than expected, prior to the regulations being in place that would bail it out and serve as justification for a crackdown on crypto.

Its worth noting that the only entities that had dealings with FTX at the time of its exposure that recovered their funds without resorting to bribery or hacking were defi protocols built on smart contracts, because you cannot syphon funds from a properly written smart contract. FTX demonstrated the power of crypto to protect people from fraudulent entities, and the weakness of the political, legal and regulatory system designed for that purpose.

 

[BigTom]

Fourth, there were very generous donations made to Dem politicians, he was Bidens second largest donor. He also gave generously to the police force of the Bahamas. There is also the whole involvement in the Ukraine donations.

And he says he gave a similar amount to republicans, but not openly.

 

[pbsmooth]

Love the idea it didn't have much to do with crypto

 

[t0bytoo]

FTX had everything to with crypto because that’s what they were selling - the crypto dream!

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

Interesting to see how the whole SBF thing is being viewed outwith crypto circles.

Firstly, the SBF fraud has surprisingly little to do with crypto. His foundational scam was diverting fiat money that people sent FTX thinking they were buying bitcoin or ethereum with it to an Alameda slush fund

Secondly, the sheer extent of this fraud - not only in monetary terms - but also in its transparency is phenomenal. Its worth reading the initial report from the replacement CEO - key quote "Never in my career have I seen such an utter failure of corporate controls at every level of an organization, from the lack of financial statements to a complete failure of any internal controls or governance whatsoever". (This is the guy who dealt with the Enron bankrupcy). The details of it are shocking, no accountant; no board of directors, no list of employees, people paid by emojis, auditor based in the metaverse! This was not clever well concealed syphoning.

Third, it all took place right under the noses of regulators and journos. FTX was incorporated under multiple jurisdictions which require significant complience, he was all over the mainstream media as an autistic savaunt wonderboy who was going to save the world out of the goodness of his heart. He met with the Head of the SEC at least twice, as well as the chair of the Financial Services Committee several times. SBF was literally writing the rules on how crypto should be regulated, rules that are still on the table.

Fourth, there were very generous donations made to Dem politicians, he was Bidens second largest donor. He also gave generously to the police force of the Bahamas. There is also the whole involvement in the Ukraine donations.

Fifth - tether. Lots and lots of tether. Tonnes of tether. Where there is tether there is fraud.

My personal opinion is that FTX was always designed to implode, it just did so earlier than expected, prior to the regulations being in place that would bail it out and serve as justification for a crackdown on crypto.

Its worth noting that the only entities that had dealings with FTX at the time of its exposure that recovered their funds without resorting to bribery or hacking were defi protocols built on smart contracts, because you cannot syphon funds from a properly written smart contract. FTX demonstrated the power of crypto to protect people from fraudulent entities, and the weakness of the political, legal and regulatory system designed for that purpose.

So, it’s nothing to do with crypto and actually a good example of the power of crypto.

You are utterly deluded.

 

[gosub]

So, it’s nothing to do with crypto and actually a good example of the power of crypto.

You are utterly deluded.

Nah the 'hack' that drained what funds there was left showed you can track what was your money through three or so pipes before it completely disappears down the plughole . That's defo a USP. None of this 'clerical error' for tech heads when they get mugged they really know it

 

[gosub]

Interesting to see how the whole SBF thing is being viewed outwith crypto circles.

Firstly, the SBF fraud has surprisingly little to do with crypto. His foundational scam was diverting fiat money that people sent FTX thinking they were buying bitcoin or ethereum with it to an Alameda slush fund

Secondly, the sheer extent of this fraud - not only in monetary terms - but also in its transparency is phenomenal. Its worth reading the initial report from the replacement CEO - key quote "Never in my career have I seen such an utter failure of corporate controls at every level of an organization, from the lack of financial statements to a complete failure of any internal controls or governance whatsoever". (This is the guy who dealt with the Enron bankrupcy). The details of it are shocking, no accountant; no board of directors, no list of employees, people paid by emojis, auditor based in the metaverse! This was not clever well concealed syphoning.

Third, it all took place right under the noses of regulators and journos. FTX was incorporated under multiple jurisdictions which require significant complience, he was all over the mainstream media as an autistic savaunt wonderboy who was going to save the world out of the goodness of his heart. He met with the Head of the SEC at least twice, as well as the chair of the Financial Services Committee several times. SBF was literally writing the rules on how crypto should be regulated, rules that are still on the table.

Fourth, there were very generous donations made to Dem politicians, he was Bidens second largest donor. He also gave generously to the police force of the Bahamas. There is also the whole involvement in the Ukraine donations.

Fifth - tether. Lots and lots of tether. Tonnes of tether. Where there is tether there is fraud.

My personal opinion is that FTX was always designed to implode, it just did so earlier than expected, prior to the regulations being in place that would bail it out and serve as justification for a crackdown on crypto.

Its worth noting that the only entities that had dealings with FTX at the time of its exposure that recovered their funds without resorting to bribery or hacking were defi protocols built on smart contracts, because you cannot syphon funds from a properly written smart contract. FTX demonstrated the power of crypto to protect people from fraudulent entities, and the weakness of the political, legal and regulatory system designed for that purpose.

The mechanics were full on Ponsi. I could see the crypto lot were very upset the actual arrest took so long, due process leads to a more solid case and a more likely conviction. Was more surprised by the front of the bloke at a time his lawyers really should have been telling him to plead the 5th