bimble
floofy
I wouldn't call it burst until its at least back to where it was this time last year.. so a fall of 90%?
Bitcoin discussion and news
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camouflage
gaslit at scale.
"SCRAMBLE!!!1!" would be the word of that day if it ever comes. A lot of people dream of such a massive fall, they dream of it with sweaty hands while licking their lips.
camouflage
gaslit at scale.
what's the rush, and why did you buy em in the first place iydmma?
bimble
floofy
I just sold (turned back into £) the amount of actual money that i put in in the first place, leaving still some bitcoin in there (still 'worth' a lot more than what i've just withdrawn). But so now if it all crashes into nothing tomorrow morning I haven't actually lost anything.
I bought them in the first place after meeting this bitcoin evangelist bloke a while ago who totally turned my head tbh with his enthusiasm and attempts to explain the magical maths
. I still find it all fascinating but now feels like a good time to take my own advice about not having anything in there that I don't feel fine about losing completely.
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butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Not a currency
Not decentralised
Burning the world
Not decentralised
Burning the world
mauvais
on reddit or something
Good idea. But have you got a plan for the rest of it? e.g. sell n% if the price rises to £X or falls to £Y? Or just hold forever?
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Plans - decentralisd currency.
How doing?
How doing?
bimble
floofy
A plan is a good idea, might try to think one up but don’t want to be checking the value of bitcoin every day either.
mauvais
on reddit or something
The subject of where next is an interesting idea, and gold has always been popular with the nutters. However I think they'll mostly flee to the next surviving cryptobollocks scheme, for at least a few, increasingly shorter cycles until the whole idea goes out of fashion. Easy to blame the specifics of the implementation or specific events in its lifecycle rather than the overall principle. Predicting which particular scheme is the difficult bit, and people are already making their bets on all the alternatives to BTC, so it's dangerously late to try it.
mauvais
on reddit or something
If it were boring things like shares, you could set a stop loss or limit order, to automatically sell when the price reaches some chosen point. I've no idea if this exists in the typical Bitcoin wallet system.
To paraphrase Helmuth von Moltke the Elder (?), no plan survives first contact with events, but if you would like to one day walk away with some money rather than the sad results of an experiment, having one and sticking to it would be a good idea. So would protecting yourself against losing it all to wallet fuckups, hacks etc.
I imagine for you there's not so much money in there that you're losing sleep at night, but anyone dicking about with this stuff to a larger extent should at least think about this kind of advice.
joustmaster
offcumdun
why not?
It removes the risk of losing anything...
Athos
Well-Known Member
Not really. You run the risk of losing everything above your initial stake. It just removes the risk of losing the initial stake. A risk you were, presumably content to run at the outset.
joustmaster
offcumdun
Yes. A risk I was happy to take. But now a risk that has gone.
Now with well over the initial stake available to take out or leave in...
BigTom
Well-Known Member
Either you think the price will rise, in which case why take out that top slice?
Or
You think the price will fall, in which case why leave any in?
Psychologically though, I 100% agree with you, and if you have no idea what the price is going to do it does make sense, in a way. I know i would have done the same.
I've thought of taking out my original stake, but as said, it doesn't really make sense. Instead I've decided to just buy drugs as and when needed, that's why I bought it in the first place. If it keeps going up I will get free drugs for life and if it goes down I will have to pay for my drugs like I used to do.
ETA. I've probably already taken out my original stake with the drugs bought with profit. If it crashed to nothing I'm still in front and that is also taking into consideration the drugs I've bought that didn't arrive.
ETA. I've probably already taken out my original stake with the drugs bought with profit. If it crashed to nothing I'm still in front and that is also taking into consideration the drugs I've bought that didn't arrive.
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As Tom and Athos said.
At any given time, the money you have is the money you have. Your wealth is memoryless. Do you want to risk it or not? The answer has nothing to do with how you got to where you are.
There is also quite a neat proof that if you would take multiple consecutive bets, you should be willing to take each single bet that comprise the multiple strategy in its own right. The proof works backwards from the final bet, and looks for the point at which you would stop your multiple betting strategy based on your stated preferences. If you aren’t willing to take one of the single bets, the answer peels right back so that you should never even start. Topslicing follows the same fallacy. You aren’t willing to take a bet singly, so you shouldn’t be willing to take them in combination.
mauvais
on reddit or something
I don't agree with that (topslicing). There's truth to the original stake element, it's an arbitrary number. Markets do have something resembling memory, more so the more they're based on confidence, so why shouldn't your plan be based on history?
More to the point, the amount you can safely bet has some relation to your overall wealth, wealth may have no memory but how much of it you have is fluid.
You think cows are undervalued so you buy ten cows, and a little while later the price of cows is double what it was. Listening to talk around the town, the chance of a crash is high, but you also think 3x is still entirely possible. The sensible thing to do is sell some cows now, let's say half, reducing your exposure and returning to an acceptable level of risk in terms of your overall wealth.
But should you have come late to this game, would you buy five cows at the inflated price? Probably not, because it represents not just the same stake, but the same percentage of your total wealth as the early bet, at a much higher risk. You could buy 2.5 cows at this point to achieve equivalency, but I suspect your half cow is only good for dinner.
More to the point, the amount you can safely bet has some relation to your overall wealth, wealth may have no memory but how much of it you have is fluid.
You think cows are undervalued so you buy ten cows, and a little while later the price of cows is double what it was. Listening to talk around the town, the chance of a crash is high, but you also think 3x is still entirely possible. The sensible thing to do is sell some cows now, let's say half, reducing your exposure and returning to an acceptable level of risk in terms of your overall wealth.
But should you have come late to this game, would you buy five cows at the inflated price? Probably not, because it represents not just the same stake, but the same percentage of your total wealth as the early bet, at a much higher risk. You could buy 2.5 cows at this point to achieve equivalency, but I suspect your half cow is only good for dinner.
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Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
Plus the profits will be spent on weed grown under high powered lighting hooked up illegally to the street lighting supply. A win for the planet all round.
bimble
floofy
I didn't know that topslicing was even a thing, it just felt like a semi-sensible thing to do. But whilst all you say makes sense on a purely logical basis, it sort of takes the human bit out of the equation (the bit that is ruled by emotion and not pure reason). At a guess how much of the entire global investment/gambling decisions that get done in a day are based on entirely rational sensible things though? Eg) the whole of bitcoin has arguably got nothing to do with the Rational Economic Person.
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LDC
On est tous des pangolins
As I mentioned earlier I had £25 knocking about in bitcoin for ages, and sold when it hit £50 a week ago. Still not had the money in my account after 7 days, despite them saying it'd be about 2 hours. Blockchain wallet who are/use Coinify I think. No answer to a few emails. 
You just described mental accounting:
Investopedia said:
But I already stated this was the only reason for topslicing:
I said:
Saying that it makes no sense to topslice is not the same thing as you should go all in on every bet. You should (a) not gamble more than you can afford to lose; and (b) diversify your interests. But there is absolutely no reason to think that the correct amount to leave in any one pot is its current value minus the original stake. That is utterly arbitrary.
In your example, the sensible thing to do may be to reduce your exposure to a single cow or nine cows, based on your overall risk profile. The answer doesn't depend on your initial stake -- there is no particular reason why the right answer should be 5 cows. Looking at it a different way: if the price had only gone up by 10%, would you sell a single cow at this point? If it had gone up by a factor of 10, would the right thing be to sell 9 of them? Why?
Mind you, whether five cows is the right stake or the right steak is left as an exercise for the reader.
mauvais
on reddit or something
This is my point, it can - your risk profile may be changed by the returns on the initial stake.
Once those returns have been received, however, you have a total wealth and a total risk profile and that's all you have to think about. It doesn't matter how those things came about, and how they came about shouldn't influence your decision as to what to do next. Whether you just inherited £1m, won it on the lottery or whether you obtained £1m by putting £100 in bitcoins when they were $1 per coin -- these stories are all irrelevant as to what you should do with that £1m now you have it.
Johnny Doe
Well-Known Member
As I mentioned earlier I had £25 knocking about in bitcoin for ages, and sold when it hit £50 a week ago. Still not had the money in my account after 7 days, despite them saying it'd be about 2 hours. Blockchain wallet who are/use Coinify I think. No answer to a few emails.
How do you find someone to buy? I've checked a couple of hundred of quid at it on Blockchain as an experiment and would happily take the £150 or so profit now
Brilliant. You're happy to use consume enough power to run a UK household for 6 weeks in order to make the two transactions necessary for £150 of measly profit. We're doomed. Really, we're utterly doomed.
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