countingtozero
Active Member
No, whoever gets the most votes in the second round takes the seat.
By Tuesday night we'll know how many three-way run-offs there are.
And now a French General election too (2024)
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By Tuesday night we'll know how many three-way run-offs there are.
gentlegreen
I hummus, therefore I am ...
Mélonchon volunteering to step down candidates and asking the centrists to do the same ...
Somewhat disconcerting to see substantial RN votes in the area where I want to emigrate to.
I'd always considered Brittany to be fairly safe - though I found a local Youtuber with a dodgy "like" on his FB profile.
Somewhat disconcerting to see substantial RN votes in the area where I want to emigrate to.
I'd always considered Brittany to be fairly safe - though I found a local Youtuber with a dodgy "like" on his FB profile.
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Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
I suspect like the UK and other countries that the most racist elements are in the least diverse areas, their vision of cities and immigrants are based on sensationalist media, increasingly online. It’s why we see Americans going on about how London is lost, that Birmingham is a no-go area for whites etc. People without personal experience seem to feed on bad faith sources.
Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
Here is a map showing the voting in France:
www.lemonde.fr
The results show support for the FN is strongest in areas with lower living standards, where more people drop out of high school, have lower life expectancy, and suffer from more crime. The support for the FN among the youth is particularly marked.
The putitive alliance between the left and the high status opinion/elite liberalism of Macron would be a dream come true for the FN.
French elections: Map of the first round's results
View the results in each of the 577 constituencies of the Assemblée Nationale. Our map will update live as results are counted.
www.lemonde.fr
The results show support for the FN is strongest in areas with lower living standards, where more people drop out of high school, have lower life expectancy, and suffer from more crime. The support for the FN among the youth is particularly marked.
The putitive alliance between the left and the high status opinion/elite liberalism of Macron would be a dream come true for the FN.
Hotel Chocolate
Well-Known Member
Are these diverse areas or predominantly traditional French areas?
PR1Berske
Alligator in chains by the park gates.
From Golden Dawn in Greece to provisional findings in focus groups here, young people's support for extremes on the right is significantly high.
Hotel Chocolate
Well-Known Member
...if this was an election using the British system the RN would have already won 297 seats.
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ska invita
back on the other side
Le Figaro, centre right paper, choose fash over the left
Hotel Chocolate
Well-Known Member
I have been looking at the constituencies on the Le Monde map and there are quite a few areas where the left-bloc would have to withdraw to allow the French equivalent of the Tories to win. Will they be willing to do this especially without reciprocation?
The map only shows where RN came first (brown), but going through the results most of them, if the RN hasn't come in 1st place, it's come in 2nd place. (so far I have only come across one constituency where the RN has come in 3rd place).
The only place RN seem to be doing badly is in St Denis which is where both Jordan Bardella and Eric Zemmour both come from funnily enough.
Workers' struggle Gallantly struggling on standing a candidate in every constituency scoring an average of 1%.
I think there is going to be a lot of horse trading.
And did Eric Zemmour stand? i've been unable to find his constituency if he's got one.
I think it would save a lot of bother if France used an AV system rather than this two election system.
The map only shows where RN came first (brown), but going through the results most of them, if the RN hasn't come in 1st place, it's come in 2nd place. (so far I have only come across one constituency where the RN has come in 3rd place).
The only place RN seem to be doing badly is in St Denis which is where both Jordan Bardella and Eric Zemmour both come from funnily enough.
Workers' struggle Gallantly struggling on standing a candidate in every constituency scoring an average of 1%.
I think there is going to be a lot of horse trading.
And did Eric Zemmour stand? i've been unable to find his constituency if he's got one.
I think it would save a lot of bother if France used an AV system rather than this two election system.
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The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
I think most research says yes and no. For example, the BUF had branches in areas where there was a Jewish population pre war ie East London and Manchester, post war the Union Movement also. the NF strongholds were often in areas adjacent to mixed areas, for example, West Brom was one of their highest votes with Handsworth adjacent. The BNP vote varied however Burnley and Oldham whilst having 'segregated' areas were one town where sensationalist media may well have some impact but people generally knew the areas. There was a study in Burnely looking at the BNP campaign and the most effective were a series of photographs where Burnley was a thriving town and mainly white and then compared the modern day town with lots of focus on residents from Asian origins.
On the other hand, research will also show that where populations mix there is a higher degree of social cohesion and where some overtly right wing parties tend to poll low. However local, national and international events can have an impact on those levels of community cohesion and they can be exploited by populists. There are studies on population churn that show ups and downs of social cohesion and capital.
Its also not unknown for some immigrant populations/groups to vote against immigration ie Indians for Brexit, and I have come across over here Portuguese living in France who vote for Le Pen as they are anti-Arab.
I guess there is also a case for what political culture/capital there is locally. Political organisations, trade unions, community associations for example have often played key roles in tackling and racism in communities. Both Yorkshire and Welsh NUM sent pickets to Grunwicks.
Anyway here's a very useful map of the voting in France
French elections: Map of the first round's results
View the results in each of the 577 constituencies of the Assemblée Nationale. Our map will update live as results are counted.
www.lemonde.fr
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Be useful if you can share these focus groups figures as whilst young peoples support for the populist right , and I assume you mean Reform , may well be rising in the UK I'd be surprised as if it as high as the Golden Dawn ( now pretty much defunct tbh) had. and nowhere near the levels of support across some countries in Europe. Perhaps your bar for significantly high in the UK is significantly low or you may be using some form of imperial measure of significantly high rather than the European one.
For example in the recent Euro elections the AfD recently won 16% of the under-25 vote, National Rally party around 30 percent of the youth vote nationally (the RN attracted39% of voters aged 18-24 and 49% of those aged 25-34. in the second round Presidential vote in 2022) , Meloni's party attracted 21% of 18-24 yr olds, Vox 12.5% of under 25s.
Are the far right and populist right attracting that in the UK?
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Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
Yes, I'd like to see the data for the UK too.
I am aware that Farage has the biggest number of Tik Tok followers of any UK political leader, and that this is seen as evidence of Reform cutting though, but I have seen no data suggesting any breakthrough similar to what the populist right are attracting across the EU.
I would also be very interested to see any breakdown by class, location and education.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Farge is popular on TikTok , Reform not so much. Focus groups normally have some further questions behind them so that's why I am really interested in them being shared rather than some poll prediction. Hopefully there will be some proper voting data or exit polls to look at .
countingtozero
Active Member
I'm pretty ignorant about eastern European politics, it would be interesting to hear a view on this from someone with good knowledge of those states.
Italy is probably the closest comparison. But Berlusconi and Salvini had already done lots of legislative damage and injected cultural poison before Meloni came to power. Gianfranco Fini, who oversaw the kind of rebranding of Alleanza Nazionale that Le Pen is pulling off with RN, was a minister in Berlusconi's second government in 2004.
France is also different in other ways: the level of social tension is much higher, the racialisation of poverty has a very clear geography, and the level of conflict between people in these areas and the police/CRS is already very high.
Le Pen/Bardella will be impeded by Macron on many fronts, and likely roll back some of their proposals like a prohbition on dual nationality for certain jobs, for example. But more red meat will be thrown to catholic fundamentalists, and most likely it'll be LGBT+, feminists etc who will take the brunt. And arabs, of course, we'll be hearing all about arabs, all the time, and islamism etc. Far-right thuggery, in and out of uniform, will feel itself granted a carte blanche. And Macron's regime has already been charcterised by a significant increase in police violence.
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bemused
Well-Known Member
I'd be interested in some educated thoughts.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Let this sink in
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Interesting that you make no mention of trade unions or the left in this
I'll give you a hint, you can look at what policies they imposed where they are in power in local authorities where their power s are limited and assume that they aren't likely to do less of that when they are given more power
So for example most school canteens come under the local authorities' remit (not the schools). Since as far as I can remember, when pork is on the menu, an alternative has been offered for children who cannot eat pork for religious reasons - for example when I was little, on the days when the meat was ham, Muslim kids had tinned ravioli, the substitutions probably varied from one town to another and over time - also we had fish or egg on Fridays so it wasn't like only Muslim kids were being accommodated.
In 2018 the RN Mayor of Beaucaire decreed Monday would be pork day in his town's school canteens (11 primary schools) and he banned all substitutions, even for vegetarians. He did it under the cover of it being a laicity decision.
He had to be taken to court by a Human Right's association for it to be quashed.
I would like to share your optimism but LR tried the same no substitutions in school canteen trick in Chalon-sur-Saône in 2017 (also quashed by the administrative tribunal once the Human Rights associations ceased it but note that the complaints to the legislator were all driven by non profits, not by agents of the state).
The RN and RN adjacent in positions of power have a track record already. It usually includes stealing public funds too. I suspect the only thing that might slow them down is if some of their policies damage their grifting.
I wonder what is going to happen to the trial of Marine Le Pen and her acolyte in September (Marine Le Pen, Jean-Marie Le Pen, and 25 other RN members are due to appear in front of the tribunal correctionnel de Paris between from 30th Sept to 27th Nov, they are accused misappropriating European parliament funding).
ska invita
back on the other side
We've talked about this elsewhere...modern neo fascism is pro Zionist.... part of the rebrand, part of the shared deep islamophobia, part of the support for what is very real Israeli government fascism... Tommy Robinson has been on this tip a long while iirc
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wemakeyousoundb
hopefully not gimboid
considering they are for everyone living in their "own home" having a jewish state to send all the jews they despise makes perfect sense
wemakeyousoundb
hopefully not gimboid
so after round 1 there is:
the RN is not in the running here though so I'm alright staying away on round 2.
- 190 duels the RN came first in 97 of those
- 306 3 way run with the RN being present in 299 of those, so far there has been 173 people pulling out to turn this into duels with the RN all of the Front Populaire have pulled out when they came third, but the centrist are not quitre doing the same as they apparently refuse to pull out where it is an LFI candidate in the run in second place... early days still though.
- also 5 4 way runs with the RN ahead in 3 of those.
the RN is not in the running here though so I'm alright staying away on round 2.
ska invita
back on the other side
Yes murderous ethno nationalism
wemakeyousoundb
hopefully not gimboid
same old shit?
Hotel Chocolate
Well-Known Member
Renew using the crisis to get their tally of MPs up.
And can they guarantee that all of Renew's voters would vote for the Left bloc (NFP) anyway?
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Hotel Chocolate
Well-Known Member
According to an early count by Le Monde, 127 left wing candidates have withdrawn from second-round races, while 76 of Macron’s allies also stepped back.
French elections: How many candidates have withdrawn from the second round?
Le Monde has so far counted more than 200 candidates who have withdrawn from the second round, most of them in order to help beat the far-right Rassemblement National. The deadline to maintain candidacies in the second round is at 6 pm on Tuesday.
www.lemonde.fr
I think if the RN ever get into power the first thing they would do would be to change the electoral system.
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Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
Le Pen, as I predicted, has ruled out the FN governing wthout a majoirty. Leaving aside the practical difficulties that they would encounter from putitiive alliance partners, she and Bardella get that in politics it's the long game or it's nothing. They know that any alliance or form of power sharing arrangement with the centrists of the poliitcal class and elite liberals would end the popular understanding of the FN as insurgents.
It is a lesson that the left - in France and elsewhere - needs to also learn, and quickly.
Over 200 candidates withdraw before second round of voting – France election as it happened
Around 130 are members of left-wing New Popular Front with more than 80 from Macron camp
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ska invita
back on the other side
Interesting, are you saying the French left also shouldn't form a coalition to keep out Le Pen and the gang?
Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
The centrists are toxic and any alliance with them merely guarantees a bigger FN vote next time, a loss of insurgency and a pincer movement by capital and its political representatives to dilute any serious programme.
Given the FN position, the left should form a government and call people onto the streets if the centrists refuse to support their programme.
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