2020 Election predictions

[Maurice Picarda]

I'm going for a narrow Labour victory in the English Westminster parliament and a surly coalition between Labour and SNP in the Grand UK Parliament, with a decision on Trident bases kicked into the long grass pending the 2022 defence review. English Nationalist Party will get a handful of seats, mainly where a sitting Tory has defected, or where the TUSC candidates (funded by Unite after it refused to accept the results of the Labour leadership election) split the Labour vote. Lib dems go up to 20 or so.

 

[Pickman's model]

yeh, no one over 20 would have anything to do with the lib dems

 

[butchersapron]

Unite funded tusc

 

[Idris2002]

The first born of every household will be eaten alive by locusts.

 

[DownwardDog]

50+ Conservative majority architected by Crosby again with Boris as PM. Russell B. endorses the LibDems.

 

[J Ed]

Riots and mass executions led by a righteous mob

Seriously though, probably a narrow majority Labour government led by some Blairite.

 

[jannerboyuk]

Is there a poll yet?

 

[Idris2002]

50+ Conservative majority architected by Crosby again with Boris as PM. Russell B. endorses the LibDems.

Probably. Maybe not 50 but near that. UKIP as official opposition?

 

[Belushi]

50+ Conservative majority architected by Crosby again with Boris as PM. Russell B. endorses the LibDems.

I suspect Boris will never win the throne. Cameron will stand down about a year out to give Osborne a good run at the election.

 

[Belushi]

The European referendum is going to rip the tories apart.

 

[Sprocket.]

Sorry at this moment in time I do not have 2020 vision!

 

[Orang Utan]

650 lost deposits for the Brandist Revolutionary Party

 

[Belushi]

Sorry at this moment in time I do not have 2020 vision!

Yeah, we're too far out to predict anything really. A lot is going to happen over the next five years!

 

[Maurice Picarda]

Yeah, we're too far out to predict anything really. A lot is going to happen over the next five years!

I think you're right about Boris though. Good shout.

 

[Spymaster]

Boris Johnson will be Prime Minister.

 

[Maurice Picarda]

Boris Johnson will be Prime Minister.

I'm fairly sure that he is loathed by most other Tory MPs. They are confident now, confident that they will retain their LD wins and that they can squeeze Labour further. They won't want to pander to floaters with a comedy candidate who doesn't speak for any of the backbench tribes.

 

[killer b]

Boris Johnson will never be Prime Minister. It's fantasy stuff.

 

[Spymaster]

BJ is no comedian. He's clinically ambitious and has years to adjust as necessary to take over the party leadership before the election. It'll be a different Johnson to the clown that's known now and a lot can happen in 5 years, but I reckon he'll be PM.

 

[ibilly99]

L'etat c'est moi - the Tories are intent on their onslaught to win forever a la Blair.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/115...aries-top-Conservative-government-agenda.html

Redrawing constituency boundaries to lock Labour out of power for a decades is at the top of the agenda for the new Conservative government, senior Tories have said.

The changes to parliamentary boundaries, blocked in the last Parliament, could be confirmed quickly and take effect at the 2020 general election, party sources suggested.

Boundary reform is on a list of Tory policies the party was unable to implement in coalition with the Liberal Democrats and which the new government will now push ahead with.

 

[chilango]

Ya daft sods.

The 2020 election will be very similar to this one.

No new parties.

No crazy splits.

There'll be a swing between Tory and Labour of some description.

The Lib Dems will be slowly rebuilding and may make a few gains (or not).

Northern Ireland will be the same as ever.

Plaid Cymru will be fighting for the same 5 possible seats as ever and talking about, but failing to, challenge Labour in the valleys.

The Greens will be desperately trying to hang on to Brighton and targeting one or two others to just miss out on (barring a by-election in the meantime in Bristol or Norwich).

UKIP will either be a spent force or carrying on its current strategy of strong seconds and fighting for a handful of MPs.

TUSC will, if they have any sense, be plugging away and aiming to save a couple of deposits.

Scotland is the wild card. I don't know what'll happen there.

 

[Barking_Mad]

I'll vote via telepathy and others will just have to fly to the polling station #plebs

 

[DownwardDog]

Boris Johnson will never be Prime Minister. It's fantasy stuff.

Go back and read the 2005 thread when DC became leader. There were plenty on there who were scientifically proving in great detail why he'd never be PM.

 

[killer b]

some people were wrong once, so therefore I'm right?

 

[DownwardDog]

some people were wrong once, so therefore I'm right?

No, I'm just pointing out that certainty in political predictions is a tricky business. My BJ prediction is equally likely to be complete horseshit and the 2020 PM will be that teenage boy who's always following Ed Balls around.

 

[danny la rouge]

Scotland is the wild card. I don't know what'll happen there.

Nobody does. For example, are we now in territory where swings between 20 and 40% can be expected? Or are we in a new stasis where those seats are now safe SNP?

There's speculation that the Tories will/have already offered the SNP "full fiscal autonomy" for Holyrood in return for no more referenda. If true, will they take it?

My guess is that any deal at this time will be seen as a betrayal, so they won't. But it's a gamble. Also, "FFA" isn't as popular with the public as with the status quo or independence. (Given a referendum offering Holyrood as it now stands, Smith-in-any-form, or "FFA", I'd vote status quo).