planetgeli
There's no future in England's dreaming
You missed out King of Kings, Lord of Lords, Jah Rasta far-I
US election 2020 thread
- Thread starter petee
- Start date
You missed out King of Kings, Lord of Lords, Jah Rasta far-I
Jeremiah18.17
Well-Known Member
And yet, and yet....
I still have to hear a convincing reason why Trump just cleared out all the top civilian defence hierarchy (as opposed to other departments or sectors) and stuffed it with his loyalists.
I think a coup attempt is extremely unlikely, still less a successful one. Also, going on the previous experience of the “mass militia mobilisations” in the Pacific North West that were supposed to be going to “clear away BLM and Antifa” from Seattle and Portland respectively, the trumpeted far right invasion of Washington on Saturday is likely to be another damp squib.
But just for future reference the key objective in such a situation would be to neutralise those parts of the state apparatus that might act against you (rather than necessarily seek to use them offensively).
If you had control over say, vast swathes of police, National Guard, Homeland Security etc, plus hordes of tooled up irregulars and militia you would not need the armed forces - you would just need them to stand aloof from “domestic politics”.
You would not need to take every state or conurbation either. Just the key ones and those where you were strongest, particularly if that would give you control of vast swathes of territory. The hold outs could be dealt with later, or even partitioned off, if that became possible.
To be clear, a modern coup does not need majority support, just the active support of a large enough armed minority and the passivity of the majority naively hoping for “peaceful and legal solutions”. It does not need the active support of the armed forces (just their “neutrality“). It does not need international support - particularly when you are a superpower - just other major powers “standing aloof”, or covertly feeding the flames.
As I say, I think Trump is finished and will likely go with a whimper rather than a bang, but we cannot afford to be complacent that “coups can’t happen in the advanced West” - this is exceptionalism.
I still have to hear a convincing reason why Trump just cleared out all the top civilian defence hierarchy (as opposed to other departments or sectors) and stuffed it with his loyalists.
I think a coup attempt is extremely unlikely, still less a successful one. Also, going on the previous experience of the “mass militia mobilisations” in the Pacific North West that were supposed to be going to “clear away BLM and Antifa” from Seattle and Portland respectively, the trumpeted far right invasion of Washington on Saturday is likely to be another damp squib.
But just for future reference the key objective in such a situation would be to neutralise those parts of the state apparatus that might act against you (rather than necessarily seek to use them offensively).
If you had control over say, vast swathes of police, National Guard, Homeland Security etc, plus hordes of tooled up irregulars and militia you would not need the armed forces - you would just need them to stand aloof from “domestic politics”.
You would not need to take every state or conurbation either. Just the key ones and those where you were strongest, particularly if that would give you control of vast swathes of territory. The hold outs could be dealt with later, or even partitioned off, if that became possible.
To be clear, a modern coup does not need majority support, just the active support of a large enough armed minority and the passivity of the majority naively hoping for “peaceful and legal solutions”. It does not need the active support of the armed forces (just their “neutrality“). It does not need international support - particularly when you are a superpower - just other major powers “standing aloof”, or covertly feeding the flames.
As I say, I think Trump is finished and will likely go with a whimper rather than a bang, but we cannot afford to be complacent that “coups can’t happen in the advanced West” - this is exceptionalism.
planetgeli
There's no future in England's dreaming
At least one of those three had already written his resignation letter over a longstanding dispute with Trump. Trump fired him by Twitter instead out of petulance. That hardly shows pre-thought and planning.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Something to do with hashtags.or whatever it us the youngsters do nowadays?
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Nobody has said that, though. People have specifically outlined some of the various necessary preconditions for a coup. None of them exists currently in the US, therefore talk of a coup is alarmist nonsense in this particular instance.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
As things stand the chances of trump being hit with federal charges for anything he's done over the last 4 years are just about nil. I'd guess Biden will 'protect the institution' and see to that. But if he won't leave office or pushes things too far, the chances of him getting hit by something legal start to increase. At that point, protecting the institution might mean sticking him in a court room. Have to say, I think Biden would still be very cautious about initiating anything that puts trump in a court room, never mind a cell. 'Trump as martyr' is the last thing he wants.
Edit: sorry, not clear. What I meant is Trump won't push it too far as the risks to himself then start to kick in.
Edit: sorry, not clear. What I meant is Trump won't push it too far as the risks to himself then start to kick in.
Here’s one theory: A thread written by @AshaRangappa_
Idris2002
Christmas Eve, you know?
Jeremiah18.17 -
"If you had control over say, vast swathes of police, National Guard, Homeland Security etc, plus hordes of tooled up irregulars and militia "
OK, first of all, we can forget about the LARPers, the irregulars and militia. There may be a few who mean it (man), but most are just Cosplayers. The governers have control over the National Guard, but even the Republican governers wouldn't necessarily turn them out for Trump. Homeland security I don't know much about, but how many of them are tooled up fighters? ICE seem to be a heavily armed paramilitary police force, but their main work is harming 8 year old Mexican kids. How would they do in a real fight? Much the same could be said of the police.
Then there's the problem of lining up all the ducks in a row - how do you coordinate all these wankers effectively, even if you can get them all onside?
"If you had control over say, vast swathes of police, National Guard, Homeland Security etc, plus hordes of tooled up irregulars and militia "
OK, first of all, we can forget about the LARPers, the irregulars and militia. There may be a few who mean it (man), but most are just Cosplayers. The governers have control over the National Guard, but even the Republican governers wouldn't necessarily turn them out for Trump. Homeland security I don't know much about, but how many of them are tooled up fighters? ICE seem to be a heavily armed paramilitary police force, but their main work is harming 8 year old Mexican kids. How would they do in a real fight? Much the same could be said of the police.
Then there's the problem of lining up all the ducks in a row - how do you coordinate all these wankers effectively, even if you can get them all onside?
bimble
floofy
Fully intend to take rutabowa 's sound advice and watch cartoons instead, or even do my work , but just want to dump another poll here which seems very different to that cheering one on the previous page.
This one says that
86% of Trump voters say that Biden "did not legitimately win the election.'
90% of them say they believe that "mail ballots are being manipulated to favor Joe Biden.
89% of Trump voters think he should contest the outcome of the election in court & 62% of his voters think it will change the outcome. & Fewer than half of Americans say they expect there will be a peaceful transition of power to a Biden presidency.
This one says that
86% of Trump voters say that Biden "did not legitimately win the election.'
90% of them say they believe that "mail ballots are being manipulated to favor Joe Biden.
89% of Trump voters think he should contest the outcome of the election in court & 62% of his voters think it will change the outcome. & Fewer than half of Americans say they expect there will be a peaceful transition of power to a Biden presidency.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
I assume there's a mechanism for the states governor to deploy them another state if that other states governor asks for them and the first states governor agrees - at the federal level I've seen USNG soldiers from one state on exercise in another state, but my assumption is that in that instance they are under the federal military control of the US Army, because they are acting for US military purposes rather than purely state purposes.
(Fuck alone knows - the septics mystify me....)
bimble
floofy
i think he'd need to use the insurrection act, otherwise not unless the state asks for the help.
planetgeli
There's no future in England's dreaming
Less than 0.0005% of the USA took part in that poll.
elbows
Well-Known Member
It ended when the TV networks called it. People can wind themselves up about the hard power that is still nominally at Trumps disposal all they like, soft power is required to make the wheels keep turning and that battle is all over bar the shouting.
bimble
floofy
i like the other poll better too.
it’s nice you’ve put into words and simplified how the US can be taken via force. I’m sure nobody ever thought nor tried it before.
elbows
Well-Known Member
All we see now is typical Trump bravado, bluster and bullshit. The things his life taught him could be used to win in the particular sort of business world he operated in. If they want to retain a sense of hope in their followers that Trump could yet serve a 2nd term, its only to keep the bucks rolling in and so that Trump can in his own mind find away to save some face and negotiate from some sort of position of self-believed strength.
rubbershoes
not the only raver in the village
Coups take many forms, not just military. You don't need tanks on Capitol Hill, Boris Yeltsin waving a flag or stoned African teenagers waving AK47s.
If Trump gets it to the Supreme Court and they strike down enough results from blue states, he'll have won through a constitutional coup.
I've got no idea of his chances of doing this.
But it brings into sharp focus the dubious American practice of judges being political appointees. The judiciary is meant to be one of the checks on the executive but their appointment system doesn't fit well with that.
If Trump gets it to the Supreme Court and they strike down enough results from blue states, he'll have won through a constitutional coup.
I've got no idea of his chances of doing this.
But it brings into sharp focus the dubious American practice of judges being political appointees. The judiciary is meant to be one of the checks on the executive but their appointment system doesn't fit well with that.
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littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Problem with these things is that they include a ton of contradictory stuff. Asked if their own state had substantial fraud, 22% said yes; asked about other states, that number doubles. Asked if their own vote was counted fairly, fewer than 20% have no confidence that it was. There is a problem, but the problem is over there, not in my place.
Regarding fixing the election, you're still only getting between 20 and 30 per cent thinking it was fixed, but again, that varies according to how the question is asked.
As for the Trump voters who think he should contest the outcome and that the court cases will change the outcome, well you then need to go back to them when the court cases fail and ask them what they think now.
Exactly. Literally every network and paper recognises Joe Biden as President Elect and is calling the President a loony. Yeah I know it's the 21st Century and other media exists but the narrative is set and that's important
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Idris2002
Christmas Eve, you know?
Then there's the problem of who invites them into the District of Columbia.
rubbershoes - the nearest precedent might be Gough Whitlam. But even there the analogy doesn't really fit.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Zero.
MickiQ
In My Defence I was left Unsupervised
Define end? Trump leaving the WH and being replaced by Biden is going to happening in about 10 weeks, Trump whining about how it's all a fix and he really won bigly, hell no that is going to go on for years.
JimW
支那暗杀团
I've got a dim recall of some strike history where the local national guard was short and called in help from a neighbour but will have to look it up as could be completely wrong.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Trump is fucking stupid enough not to understand the powerful illusions and soft power that is required to keep the show on the road. But most people within that system of government are not so ignorant about that, and so they thwart his delusions on such fronts. And when he replaces them, a fair percentage of his chosen replacements also understand that and dont end up acting on his every whim. And those that dont are usually too inept to achieve his goals anyway.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
I meant it's not going to end in terms of trump and an ever diminishing band of well placed GOPers trying to do 'something' to stall or challenge the result. None of it goes anywhere and Biden will be president in January. It's about how much trump shits the bed first, covers his tracks and then afterwards, becomes a rallying point for some kind alt-right/conspiracist/disaffected voters coalition. Daft to predict anything, but my guess is trump will be an irrelevance in 2 years. Whichever hard line populist picks up the torch won't want him sticking his oar in. Maybe he'll remain as a figurehead for these people, who knows.
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