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US election 2020 thread

littlebabyjesus said:
A word on the polls, as averaged finally a couple of days ago here. They're off almost exactly like last time - ie not nearly as far off as some (Trump!) are suggesting.

They appear to have got Biden's overall share of the vote not too far off at 52%, which it probably will be close to when the counting is finally done (currently 50.5%). As last time, the thing they got more wrong was Trump's vote, which will be around 47% rather than 44% as predicted in the average.

Regarding individual states, the only ones called wrongly (on average across polls), if the numbers remain the same, are Georgia and Florida - one each for each side. But they were right that Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina would be really close. They will probably be about spot on for PA and NV. Florida is basically the only state they really misjudged.

One thought occurs to me about why this error has repeated itself. It looks like the polls have again overestimated the 'Other' share of the vote, as in 2016, and like 2016, most 'don't knows/haven't decideds' have voted Trump. But that's easily explained if so-called 'shy' Trump voters don't lie by saying they're going Democrat, but rather they lie by saying 'not decided' when they really have or by saying 'libertarian' or whatever. It would make more sense to me that they'd lie that way rather than lying about being Democrats - it's a softer lie.
Click to expand...
Power of narrative at work here - big leads in the run up to the election, a smidgeon (not much) of tightening in the last few days. Then that huge Trump lead on the night that evaporated in daylight and which everybody had been warned would happen but apparently loads then forgot about.
And at the end of it all they were wrong, but not that wrong really
 
LynnDoyleCooper said:
If I was Secret Service watching Biden I'd be fucking alert as fuck for loose cannon lunatics trying something now.
Click to expand...
Why?

He's hopeless. It would be the easiest way of getting rid of him and getting a vaguely articulate person into the Whitehouse.
 
tim said:
Why?

He's hopeless. It would be the easiest way of getting rid of him and getting a vaguely articulate person into the Whitehouse.
Click to expand...
Biden isn't inarticulate. He's not the skilled orator that Obama or Clinton were, but who cares? That's a much overrated quality. Biden's hopeless in many ways, but the fact he occasionally stumbles on a word isn't one of them.

Death to Biden right now would not help any matters. Again, not saying that because he's wonderful.
 
littlebabyjesus said:
A word on the polls, as averaged finally a couple of days ago here. They're off almost exactly like last time - ie not nearly as far off as some (Trump!) are suggesting.

They appear to have got Biden's overall share of the vote not too far off at 52%, which it probably will be close to when the counting is finally done (currently 50.5%). As last time, the thing they got more wrong was Trump's vote, which will be around 47% rather than 44% as predicted in the average.

Regarding individual states, the only ones called wrongly (on average across polls), if the numbers remain the same, are Georgia and Florida - one each for each side. But they were right that Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina would be really close. They will probably be about spot on for PA and NV. Florida is basically the only state they really misjudged.

One thought occurs to me about why this error has repeated itself. It looks like the polls have again overestimated the 'Other' share of the vote, as in 2016, and like 2016, most 'don't knows/haven't decideds' have voted Trump. But that's easily explained if so-called 'shy' Trump voters don't lie by saying they're going Democrat, but rather they lie by saying 'not decided' when they really have or by saying 'libertarian' or whatever. It would make more sense to me that they'd lie that way rather than lying about being Democrats - it's a softer lie.
Click to expand...
Given the lack of credible charismatic third party candidate, surely the assumption would have always been that if one got 52% the other would have got around 47%. Americans are far too prudish to go for spunking cocks in statistically significant numbers.
 
littlebabyjesus said:
Biden isn't inarticulate. He's not the skilled orator that Obama or Clinton were, but who cares? That's a much overrated quality. Biden's hopeless in many ways, but the fact he occasionally stumbles on a word isn't one of them.

Death to Biden right now would not help any matters. Again, not saying that because he's wonderful.
Click to expand...

If you've got to go out and win elections not being a skilled orator is a pretty big handicap, which is why he nearly lost.
 
tim said:
Given the lack of credible charismatic third party candidate, surely the assumption would have always been that if one got 52% the other would have got around 47%. Americans are far too prudish to go for spunking cocks in statistically significant numbers.
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Some of the oddest polls I saw were ones that had Biden at, say, 52% but then Trump on 38/39%. Clearly this wasn't going to be a thing because almost universally there was no real support for third party candidates but a really high reported likelihood of voting. Seemed like this could have been Trumpies being coy, either deliberately or even with themselves and the pollster not pushing them to express a preference
 
ruffneck23 said:
wh

He has a really bad stammer that he has to work on when speaking, and you deride him for that ?
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It's not the stammer. It's the general unimpresivness. It's the Democratic Party that merits derision for having nominated so unsuited to take on Trump.
 
JTG said:
Some of the oddest polls I saw were ones that had Biden at, say, 52% but then Trump on 38/39%. Clearly this wasn't going to be a thing because almost universally there was no real support for third party candidates but a really high reported likelihood of voting. Seemed like this could have been Trumpies being coy, either deliberately or even with themselves and the pollster not pushing them to express a preference
Click to expand...
tbh this is why the fact Biden was staying over 50% felt like the most important bit to me, given what happened in 2016.

We'll see when it comes out in the wash, but my hunch is that it wasn't particularly a sampling or weighting error, just the simple error of not recognising that most of the people giving an answer other than the two main candidates were shy trumpers.
 
LynnDoyleCooper said:
It wasn't a comment on any political support I have for him (I agree, I think he's useless) it was a comment on the possibility of a Qanon or another type of lunatic with a gun having a go.
Click to expand...

I think that ship's already sailed. There was something on the news earlier about the FBI having assigned him (additional, I assume) protection.
 
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tim said:
If you've got to go out and win elections not being a skilled orator is a pretty big handicap, which is why he nearly lost.
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Not sure he did nearly lose. He's going to win more states than he needed to, and the popular vote by five points. If Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania had been allowed to canvas their votes in advance like Florida did, they'd have been called for Biden on the night and we wouldn't be discussing how close this is.

Even if you do accept that he nearly lost, it's only because of America's daft Electoral College system that requires Democratic nominees to win by five points to have a decent chance of getting elected.
 
Alaska haven't announced anything for over a day.
Nothing from North Carolina all day either.
Georgia have announced just over 100 votes in the past two hours despite ten separate announcements.
Even Pennsylvania is trickling in...
 
I noticed that amongst all his whittering about voting fraud, the tangerine buffoon has never acknowledged the voter suppression that has been a regular feature of some areas ...
 
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