US election 2020 thread

[JTG]

fuck that is going to be brutal. I can't wait.

Single state winner takes all play off to enable/prevent a Democrat trifecta? What could possibly go wrong?

 

[JimW]

Single state winner takes all play off to enable/prevent a Democrat trifecta? What could possibly go wrong?

Fortunately it will be in a state with no long history of brutal voter suppression and shenanigans...oh

 

[Wilf]

fuck that is going to be brutal. I can't wait.

With trump off the scene (ish, kind of), I wonder what brutal will look like by then? The New Brutal?

 

[Wilf]

If the guardian's figures are right (yeah...) the number of PA votes still to be counted is going up. ((((Trump's blood pressure))))

'Where did those bigly votes come from? VERY BAD!'

 

[killer b]

It's 48-48 atm. Two other races ongoing are Alaska (very probably GOP) and North Carolina which is poised as delicately as the Presidential is in that state. So call it 49-48, guess at how NC ends up and yep, the two GA seats will decide who controls the chamber

ie whatever happens in the other two races (barring a miraculous double Dem victory), GA will have the Senate majority in its hands in January so long as Biden wins the Presidency

Why would the runoff be for both GA seats btw?

 

[strung out]

Why would the runoff be for both GA seats btw?

One of the seats was a special election to fill a vacant seat that was temporarily being filled by Loeffler. The other is for the normal scheduled Senate election.

 

[Flavour]

can't shake the horrible feeling trump might still win PA, GA and AZ

 

[brogdale]

fuck that is going to be brutal. I can't wait.

+ without Trump?

 

[salem]

How is that keyboard handling this punishment?

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I noticed that this and a bunch of his other tweets being censored with a warning. I then thought to check the official @POTUS twitter account which keeps his tweets as an official record. They seem to retweet but haven't done any since 2nd Nov. Anyone know what that's about? Is there often a lag before they retweet them or is this an active choice?

 

[prunus]

can't shake the horrible feeling trump might still win PA, GA and AZ

He won’t, certainly not in PA, almost certainly not in AZ and maybe not even in GA (there’s some uncertainty in the number of votes still to be counted/reported there). Fear not.

 

[JTG]

One of the seats was a special election to fill a vacant seat that was temporarily being filled by Loeffler. The other is for the normal scheduled Senate election.

Yup. Special election was almost certainly going to be a run off anyway cos it was a free for all - two Republicans, three Democrats and a bunch of independents and Libertarians. Run off will be Loeffler(R) v Warnock (D). The two Rs in the race were trying to outflank each other to the right so there's possibly a fair bit of room for Warnock to play in

 

[JTG]

If the guardian's figures are right (yeah...) the number of PA votes still to be counted is going up. ((((Trump's blood pressure))))

'Where did those bigly votes come from? VERY BAD!'

Yeah that's a thing. All these votes are being counted in different counties so trying to figure out how many are left is a tricky thing even for the state officials. Ballots still arriving (if permitted), provisional ballots being verified (that could skew things Biden's way too) and good old fashioned human error when someone includes a batch already counted in their reckoning or vice versa

 

[Ted Striker]

For Georgia senate - isn't the (first) run off a GOP cert? It was split 1/3, 1/3, 1/3, where Republicans split their vote between 2 candidates? They're vastly more likely to switch to the other Republican, no?

 

[JTG]

can't shake the horrible feeling trump might still win PA, GA and AZ

Biden's winning PA. The maths just does not add up for Trump

 

[JTG]

For Georgia senate - isn't the (first) run off a GOP cert? It was split 1/3, 1/3, 1/3, where Republicans split their vote between 2 candidates? They're vastly more likely to switch to the other Republican, no?

Nope - current tally is 32/26/20 with Warnock the first of those. It's the same electorate remember so very 50/50 with a slight GOP bias maybe

 

[Kaka Tim]

when do those lazy bastards in nevada start counting again?

 

[prunus]

Biden's winning PA. The maths just does not add up for Trump

Absolutely, this is the one that means I’m intensely relaxed, after some nervy moments in the past 36 hours. Biden’s going to take PA by in the region of 150k votes. There just aren’t enough votes left to come from Trump voting areas.

Biden needs about 6 votes for every 4 Trump gets of the remaining 600k; he’s getting (and there’s no reason to think this won’t hold) about 13 for every 4.

 

[strung out]

Georgia could be a dead heat.

There's a big push at the moment to get absent voters to check that their vote was registered correctly and if not, to 'cure' it, i.e. fix whatever the problem was with it.

Could be important if the vote really is that close!

 

[JimW]

Absolutely, this is the one that means I’m intensely relaxed, after some nervy moments in the past 36 hours. Biden’s going to take PA by in the region of 150k votes. There just aren’t enough votes left to come from Trump voting areas.

Biden needs about 6 votes for every 4 Trump gets of the remaining 600k; he’s getting (and there’s no reason to think this won’t hold) about 13 for every 4.

Pennsylvania is his avenue.

 

[JTG]

Absolutely, this is the one that means I’m intensely relaxed, after some nervy moments in the past 36 hours. Biden’s going to take PA by in the region of 150k votes. There just aren’t enough votes left to come from Trump voting areas.

Biden needs about 6 votes for every 4 Trump gets of the remaining 600k; he’s getting (and there’s no reason to think this won’t hold) about 13 for every 4.

Yep, ending up in the same place as Michigan - a 'close' race that wasn't that close come the end - and only looked like it because it takes longer to count the votes from major cities that vote 80-20 Democrat

 

[strung out]

Talking about votes coming in and how they relate to poll accuracy, this is interesting when it comes to judging to what extent the polls actually got it wrong this time around.

 

[JTG]

There's a big push at the moment to get absent voters to check that their vote was registered correctly and if not, to 'cure' it, i.e. fix whatever the problem was with it.

Could be important if the vote really is that close!

I'm now hoping that it comes down to provisional ballots to make things really fun

 

[JTG]

Talking about votes coming in and how they relate to poll accuracy, this is interesting when it comes to judging to what extent the polls actually got it wrong this time around.

The lower end of PA polling was around Biden +5. If he wins it by 2 (and he may well do at this rate) then that's a margin of error miss for the pollsters who were saying that

 

[JTG]

 

[strung out]

Just like Prince Phillip.

 

[belboid]

The lower end of PA polling was around Biden +5. If he wins it by 2 (and he may well do at this rate) then that's a margin of error miss for the pollsters who were saying that

The pollsters are almost exactly as wrong this time as last time.

 

[cupid_stunt]

They haven't finished counting, you delusional twat.

 

[JTG]

The pollsters are almost exactly as wrong this time as last time.

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tbf there's quite a wide range of variation in there - FL looks like a bad miss, NH not so much. And they haven't stopped counting yet

 

[gentlegreen]

View attachment 237491

They haven't finished counting, you delusional twat.

It's surreal seeing the President of the US tweeting like a twat and being trolled in reply...
Any one of us could tell him to fuck off ...

 

[JimW]

It's surreal seeing the President of the US tweeting like a twat and being trolled in reply...
Any one of us could tell him to fuck off ...

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Quirky folk, your Armenians.