US election 2020 thread

[The39thStep]

Romney 2024, I'm calling it.

You could be right . What I'm thinking though is what's going to happen to the Trump fanboy/cadre? They are clearly no longer just a protest vote. Would a de-Trumpified Republican Party be their natural habitat or would their support go else where? I don't believe they'll just melt away.

 

[agricola]

Running out of friends:

Even Pence disagreed with him, publicly, right after Trump gave that speech.

 

[JTG]

It was inevitable really

 

[Edward Kelly]

Senate has two per state regardless - so states ranging from under 1 million to nearly 40 million. The electoral college is done more proportionally - California has 55 - but all states have a minimum of 3 votes, so it still isn't particularly proportional. House of Reps is more proportional, but still skews somewhat in favour of smaller states. Plus DC isn't a state so doesn't get any senators at all. None of its systems give equal weighting to all votes, but some of the systems are way out.

It's a system that was set up long before many of the current states even existed. What might have made some sense 200 years ago doesn't make so much sense today.

Cheers for that, Yep I read your post as if it were the Electoral College had Two per state (which it obviously hasn't)... Long night.

 

[Lord Camomile]

Romney 2024, I'm calling it.

I was musing with a friend earlier whether he'd take another crack at it. He's certainly been playing the 'reasonable Republican' role for a while.

 

[Raheem]

Nope. The de-Trumpification of the GOP "He was a democrat all along" will begin within days and will be led by those already tarnished beyond salvation allowing the traditional rightwing twats like Romney to jump in.

Only time will tell, but the problem the GOP have is that the next presidential race is already on the horizon. There isn't time to regroup and it's an open process that it won't be possible to stitch up in the face of ongoing Trumpism. It's there for the taking for whoever is perceived to be most in Trump's image. It may even be a question of who Trump annoints. Standing someone like Romney is not IMO even vaguely viable.

 

[Lord Camomile]

You could be right . What I'm thinking though is what's going to happen to the Trump fanboy/cadre? They are clearly no longer just a protest vote. Would a de-Trumpified Republican Party be their natural habitat or would their support go else where? I don't believe they'll just melt away.

Was also thinking this earlier; whatever happened to the Tea Party? Did they just get sucked up into the Trump caravan?

 

[planetgeli]

You could be right . What I'm thinking though is what's going to happen to the Trump fanboy/cadre? They are clearly no longer just a protest vote. Would a de-Trumpified Republican Party be their natural habitat or would their support go else where? I don't believe they'll just melt away.

There's a hell of a lot of cult of the individual in this vote. That stuff can melt away.

 

[Tankus]

I wasn't confident until Trump's rambling announcement at 7.00 this morning, when it was clear that he he knew he had lost. Look at his demeanour look at his supporters faces listen to their desultory applause and feel confident.

That audience though
Its a good job they have rounded the turn ,curving around the corner,bending round the bend ,on the slope to curvedom ,
Otherwise that would be a spreader right there .

 

[Pickman's model]

So he's got Michigan,JB, what a day

 

[Nine Bob Note]

You could be right . What I'm thinking though is what's going to happen to the Trump fanboy/cadre? They are clearly no longer just a protest vote. Would a de-Trumpified Republican Party be their natural habitat or would their support go else where? I don't believe they'll just melt away.

They'll look for someone else to save America from communism when they learn Trump was a democrat draft-dodger ("look at these donations, that's proof"). Bill Maher's 'republican classic' friends have been planning this for some time. Romney's a mormon so he'll need something more mainstream on the ticket. Sarah Huckerbee-Sanders will do nicely. She resigned from camp Trump without much scandal, supposedly to focus on a future governorshipelection - didn't buy it at the time. Look for her distancing herself from her father in the coming days.

 

[steveo87]

Before I get too over excited, what's left to won for Biden?
And what does Trump need for it to turn around? No matter how unlikely.

 

[JTG]

GA appears to be packing up for the day with a chunk of mail ballots still to count, largely from very dark blue counties around Atlanta and Savannah. Seeing some calculations that Biden needs to win the remaining ballots by 71-29 to take the state which may not be out of the question given where those votes are from

 

[davesgcr]

Delighted that there is a place called Kalamazoo in Michigan

There is also a DeKalb County - one my favourite NYC subway station names is DeKalb Ave (aka the heart of the BMT or Brooklyn Manhattan Transit) , which came first ?

 

[planetgeli]

Before I get too over excited, what's left to won for Biden?
And what does Trump need for it to turn around? No matter how unlikely.

Nevada makes 270

 

[tim]

Emily Maitlis getting tired and emotional on Newsnight and putting the boot into Donald Trump, BBC, neutrality going "out the window" in an argument with a failed Nevadan candidate for Congress.

 

[steveo87]

Another late night it is then!

 

[Raheem]

Nevada makes 270

Only if you're counting Arizona as done.

 

[Pickman's model]

View attachment 237396

From trump's last visit to mcd's?

 

[gosub]

It was inevitable really

Would this be goor time to mention, that if you are in military service overseas, chances are you didn't vote at a polling station yesterday

 

[strung out]

Before I get too over excited, what's left to won for Biden?
And what does Trump need for it to turn around? No matter how unlikely.

Biden needs two out of Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, or just Pennsylvania.

Currently looking fine to pick up at least two of those, probably three and maybe four or five if he's really lucky.

 

[JTG]

Only if you're counting Arizona as done.

We'll have a good idea in an hour I think. They're doing two announcements tonight, 1230 I think and 5am

 

[Calamity1971]

Emily Maitlis getting tired and emotional on Newsnight and putting the boot into Donald Trump, BBC, neutrality going "out the window" in an argument with a failed Nevadan candidate for Congress.

Was that the headbanger Randi Reed? Christ, what was with the covid cases being fishy line! Just all fuck off gracefully ( hopefully)

 

[JTG]

Donald Trump started the day 10 points ahead in Pennsylvania. He is now 4 points ahead with 13% of the vote still to be counted. He is done

 

[planetgeli]

Only if you're counting Arizona as done.

I am. I'm also open to a server fund bet if you think I'm wrong?

 

[Flavour]

seems ages ago when trump was favorite to win, fucking shit the bed

 

[Raheem]

I am. I'm also open to a server fund bet if you think I'm wrong?

I don't think you're wrong, but you could just as easily give him Nevada too and say he's over the line already.

 

[JTG]

They should just call PA tonight, it's not even gonna be close by the time they've finished

 

[two sheds]

Guardian has Biden on 264 mind you they seem to have been speculative all last night too.

And if he does win he can say he's got the popular vote as well.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

seems ages ago when trump was favorite to win, fucking shit the bed

I woke up this morning and was convinced Trump was going to win. I was in a right hump.

Today has involved a gradual regaining of belief, but I won't be happy until Arizona has declared some more and Nevada starts widening its gap. It would also be nice to have a 'spare' in case of shenanigans, but that feels greedy.