Ukraine: Unsubstantiated rumours and speculation

[Dogsauce]

Ammo depot exploded inside Russia, reportedly 40km inside the border. Ukraine claiming a missile strike but equally likely to be incompetence or something. Location is near the village of Oktyabrsky near Belgorod. Russia probably claiming it is fireworks to celebrate their victorious limited military operation.

 

[Cid]

Tass is saying shell. Or at least Reuters is reporting Tass as saying it was a shell: archive.ph

But they might not want to admit it if it some poor sod having a crafty fag.

 

[Dogsauce]

Tass is saying shell. Or at least Reuters is reporting Tass as saying it was a shell: archive.ph

But they might not want to admit it if it some poor sod having a crafty fag.

Unlikely to be a shell due to the distance, Ukraine doesn’t really have anything that could reach that far from their side of the border. Anyway, reported to be a rocket and artillery depot so good that these things go up in smoke rather than hit targets and cause terror.

 

[zahir]

Russian soldiers switching sides?

 

[gosub]

Russian soldiers switching sides?

Probably a lesson in there for the likes of P&O about end of employment mediation

 

[dilute micro]

Thought this was interesting input on the video supposedly showing Ukrainians shooting Russian captives in the legs. If this guy is not an information operations officer... not a spec of dirt on his gear and his right out of the crate AK doesn't have a scratch on it though is videos are excellent.

 

[frogwoman]

Видео с украинской беженкой, рассказывающей о зверствах «Азова», сняла ФСБ. Российским медиа приказали не указывать источник

Распространенное государственными СМИ видео, на котором беженка из охваченного войной Мариуполя рассказывает о зверствах...

zona.media

Read this through Google translate. Grim

 

[zahir]

Former Russian Soldiers Join Ukraine Against Putin's Invasion, Kyiv Says

The Ukrainian defence ministry said Russian soldiers had started training to join the "Freedom of Russia" legion.

www.newsweek.com

Ukraine has said some former Russian soldiers have switched sides and have now joined Kyiv's forces fighting against Vladimir Putin's invasion.

The Ukrainian defense ministry said on its Telegram channel on Wednesday that commanders of the "Freedom of Russia" legion were visiting detained former Russian military personnel "in order to select those who wish to serve." In a follow up post, it said that the "first volunteers," comprising ex-Russian troops, "have already begun individual additional training."

Russian-language Ukrainian news outlet Bagnet said joining the legion is voluntary and requires Russian prisoners of war to apply in writing. The troops are then vetted by Ukraine's security services and counter intelligence.

It reported on Wednesday that both privates and officers were among the "several hundred" Russians who had signed up for the legion.

 

[CyberRose]

Opinion article in the NYT questioning whether all of what has happened so far hasn't been Putin's plan all along...

What if Putin Didn’t Miscalculate?​

Suppose for a moment that Putin never intended to conquer all of Ukraine: that, from the beginning, his real targets were the energy riches of Ukraine’s east...

“Under the guise of an invasion, Putin is executing an enormous heist,” said Canadian energy expert David Knight Legg. As for what’s left of a mostly landlocked Ukraine, it will likely become a welfare case for the West, which will help pick up the tab for resettling Ukraine’s refugees to new homes outside of Russian control. In time, a Viktor Orban-like figure could take Ukraine’s presidency, imitating the strongman-style of politics that Putin prefers in his neighbors.

Opinion | What if Putin Didn’t Miscalculate? (Published 2022)

It’s always wiser to treat an adversary as a canny fox, not a crazy fool.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

Opinion article in the NYT questioning whether all of what has happened so far hasn't been Putin's plan all along...

Opinion | What if Putin Didn’t Miscalculate? (Published 2022)

It’s always wiser to treat an adversary as a canny fox, not a crazy fool.

www.nytimes.com

No one ever gets every right. Not even me.

 

[Raheem]

Opinion article in the NYT questioning whether all of what has happened so far hasn't been Putin's plan all along...

Opinion | What if Putin Didn’t Miscalculate? (Published 2022)

It’s always wiser to treat an adversary as a canny fox, not a crazy fool.

www.nytimes.com

The big problem with this analysis is that Russia already had, effectively, the energy resources of eastern Ukraine since 2014.

 

[dessiato]

No one ever gets everything right. Not even me.

CFY

 

[Flavour]

Nah all this "is putin playing us all at 4d chess" shit are bollocks, he fucked up

 

[zahir]

Thread on soldiers from South Ossetia packing it in and going back home.

There was no rapport between Ossetian soldiers and Russian commanders from the get-go, as the former didn’t buy into the latter’s strategy and tactics in the territory they were fighting in.

Ossetians were expected to carelessly attack well defended Ukrainian positions in the kamikaze style, without any well thought thru strategy. This would have led to immense losses. At some point Ossetian soldiers just ignored orders and started fighting their own way.

As the outcome of such a rebellious and independent demeanor, major incident followed: a refusal to supply ammunition and maps to the Ossetian unit.

This triggered Ossetians to come up with a tense theory: “They want to have as many people from Caucasus slaughtered in this senseless bloodbath as possible”. (Interestingly enough, there is a disproportionate number of casualties from Dagestan and North Ossetia per capita).

And then there was the final incident that almost ended at the gunpoint. One of the commanders prohibited Ossetian soldiers to retrieve their dead comrade’s body from the battlefield. This ignited a real unrest.

Soldiers tried to explain that according to Ossetian tradition the body had to be delivered to the family, but the commander suggested sending in an empty coffin. The response was fierce: we are going to put you in that coffin and ship to Ossetia in case you try to stop us.

The commander immediately called in a group of loyal Russian soldiers for his protection. Thus, all the hierarchical ties in the unit were destroyed.

Ossetian soldiers refused to obey the Russians’ orders and went home immediately. They also issued a warning of shooting anyone who would try to stop them. The group reached South Ossetia in a seamless fashion accompanied by police convoys.

 

[Dogsauce]

If you believe all the footage on Twitter etc. (yes I know), the retreating Russian Federation army in the north is being routed, some of the pictures look like the highway of death back out of Kuwait. Ukraine is using remotely-detonated IEDs to attack convoys, using drone surveillance to chose the exact moment to set things off. Someone’s been learning them this stuff very well.

 

[bluescreen]

If you believe all the footage on Twitter etc. (yes I know), the retreating Russian Federation army in the north is being routed, some of the pictures look like the highway of death back out of Kuwait. Ukraine is using remotely-detonated IEDs to attack convoys, using drone surveillance to chose the exact moment to set things off. Someone’s been learning them this stuff very well.

Can you spell it out a bit more, please, for us at the back? Who is the 'someone'?

 

[Dogsauce]

Can you spell it out a bit more, please, for us at the back? Who is the 'someone'?

Ukkraine army had been trained by NATO since 2014, including people who served in Afghanistan etc. and might have picked up a few tricks from local insurgents.

Given the likelihood of them facing a better equipped and larger army in conflict, it’s not surprising they’ve been taught a few asymmetrical warfare tricks. Using cheap commercial drones as ‘spotters’ is new though.

 

[spitfire]

.

 

[bluescreen]

Ukkraine army had been trained by NATO since 2014, including people who served in Afghanistan etc. and might have picked up a few tricks from local insurgents.

Given the likelihood of them facing a better equipped and larger army in conflict, it’s not surprising they’ve been taught a few asymmetrical warfare tricks. Using cheap commercial drones as ‘spotters’ is new though.

I was expecting something less obvious, tbh.
It's been a long day.

 

[2hats]

(Unverified) Ukrainian nuclear enterprise, Energoatom, apparently now reporting that control of Chornobyl NPP has been formally transferred back to them.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Claims that Ukrainian helicopters have attacked an oil depot inside Russia, if they have, I am not sure that's a good idea at this point in time.

An oil depot is reportedly on fire in the Russian city of Belgorod as the regional governor blames Ukrainian military helicopters for the attack.

Vyacheslav Gladkov said on his Telegram channel on Friday morning that the fire was caused by air strikes from two Ukrainian helicopters.

Belgorod sits just north of the border with Ukraine. Ukraine has not claimed responsibility for any of the blasts. LINK

 

[SpookyFrank]

Can you spell it out a bit more, please, for us at the back? Who is the 'someone'?

I don't buy this 'the Ukrainians are doing well because the British trained them' stuff tbh. If I wanted to know how to fail catastrophically at grievous cost to innocent lives, then maybe I'd bring in the UK armed forces to run a few seminars.

The Ukrainian's UAV stuff is led by a volunteer civillian unit who are building their own kit and inventing their own tactics.

 

[Dogsauce]

Claims that Ukrainian helicopters have attacked an oil depot inside Russia, if they have, I am not sure that's a good idea at this point in time.

It’s definitely an air strike, plenty of footage with the missiles visible, and aircraft can be seen in one of them. It’s only just over the border but still a very bold attack if undertaken by helicopter (ignoring various loon claims of false flag). Not the first attack inside Russia, they’ve previously hit an airbase with missiles. Likely to add to Russian supply issues (it’s a military town) and a fitting response to several attacks on Ukrainian oil depots in recent days, plus a bit of humiliation and fear thrown in at the same time.

 

[dilute micro]

I don't buy this 'the Ukrainians are doing well because the British trained them' stuff tbh. If I wanted to know how to fail catastrophically at grievous cost to innocent lives, then maybe I'd bring in the UK armed forces to run a few seminars.

The Ukrainian's UAV stuff is led by a volunteer civillian unit who are building their own kit and inventing their own tactics.

The bias in the reporting is huge. If it's UK news the tanks are being destroyed primarily by NLAWs. If it's US news it's Javelins. The idea that US, UK, and Canada know better how to defeat the Russians when they have only theory and no practical on the ground experience verses the Ukrainians who have intimate knowledge of the Russian military just rubs me wrong. It's true that NATO have designed weapons against Russian hardware but shooting a rocket is only a small part of it.

 

[HAL9000]

 

[frogwoman]

Vladimir Putin's surprise Pamela Anderson relationship and her defence of Russia

Baywatch star Pamela Anderson wrote to Putin begging him to stop the whale meat trade, but they became so close she was invited to hand him flowers at his 2012 inauguration ceremony and romance rumours sparked

www.google.com

 

[Bingoman]

Vladimir Putin's surprise Pamela Anderson relationship and her defence of Russia

Baywatch star Pamela Anderson wrote to Putin begging him to stop the whale meat trade, but they became so close she was invited to hand him flowers at his 2012 inauguration ceremony and romance rumours sparked

www.google.com

April Fools Joke?

 

[Sue]

April Fools Joke?

I'm finding it increasingly difficult to distinguish between the two to be honest.

 

[HAL9000]

‘Refusing to kill people isn’t a crime’ The Russian National Guard is firing officers who refuse to join the war in Ukraine. — Meduza

On March 24, Pavel Chikov, a lawyer from the international human rights organization Agora, reported that 12 Russian National Guard officers from Krasnodar who were participating in military exercises in Crimea had refused to follow their commander’s orders to join the war in Ukraine. The...

meduza.io

— When and under what conditions were your clients fired?

— On February 25, [Rosgvardia, the Russian National Guard] was getting ready to send my clients to Ukrainian territory, but they refused to leave Crimea. A review was initiated. On March 1, they received contract termination orders due to their failure to carry out orders. They thought about it and decided to go through the courts to get their employment reinstated. 12 people have reached out to us so far, but a lot more have been fired.

— Are there legal grounds for reinstatement? To what degree were they required to take part in the “special military operation?”

— If there was an armed conflict, an emergency situation, or martial law, the terms of the contract could be changed without their consent for six months. But we don’t have an armed conflict or a war, it’s just a “special military operation.” The law doesn’t say anything about that. You can go there [as a Rosgvardia officer], but only if you agree to it.

 

[Fez909]

The idea that US, UK, and Canada know better how to defeat the Russians when they have only theory and no practical on the ground experience

The Americans fought on opposite sides to the Russians in Syria. They have a little experience.

This article resurfaced recently about when USA killed a load of Wagner mercs: How a 4-Hour Battle Between Russian Mercenaries and U.S. Commandos Unfolded in Syria (Published 2018)

They also fought on opposite sides in Korea, though I don't think that has much relevance to today.