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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-25

The first clues chronologically were public school and Sandhurst.
almost definitely for the first [although there are a few public school attendees that have turned out to be decent human beings, especially from some of the non-eton schools]
same for sandhurst [rupert alert] but with the same caveat - some [a few] officers aren't all bad.

I'm wary of tarring all old public school attendees, officers and politicians with the same brush.
There are exceptions which prove the rule ...
 
There is a slightly more complete quote of what he actually said here.

"There is a slight word of caution here, which is that whether we like it or not people want to see gratitude,
"My counsel to the Ukrainians is sometimes you're persuading countries to give up their own stocks [of weapons] and yes the war is a noble war and yes we see it as you doing a war for - not just yourself - but our freedoms.
"But sometimes you've got to persuade lawmakers on the Hill in America, you've got to persuade doubting politicians in other countries that you know that it's worth it and it's worthwhile and that they're getting something for it.
"And whether you like that or not, that is just the reality of it."
Complete? I don't see the bit about Amazon.
 
Support group for thin-skinned politicians who are bad at persuasion, and who lash out intemperately when they don't, err.. persuade?
It just seems very odd to me , even Sunak felt obliged to smooth it over at his press conference. Don't get me wrong he might be right in thinking it but to say at a fringe meeting in public is a different matter especially as he was touted at one time to be the next NATO secretary.
 
Complete? I don't see the bit about Amazon.
"Slightly more complete".

The amazon bit -

Mr Wallace said you sometimes hear "grumbles" from American politicians - not the administration - about support to Ukraine that "we've given $83bn worth or whatever [and] you know, we're not Amazon."

The defence secretary said he too had told the Ukrainians in June last year that the UK was not the online delivery service when it came to supplying arms.

"I said to the Ukrainians last year, when I drove 11 hours to [Kyiv to] be given a list - I said, I am not Amazon."
 
almost definitely for the first [although there are a few public school attendees that have turned out to be decent human beings, especially from some of the non-eton schools]
same for sandhurst [rupert alert] but with the same caveat - some [a few] officers aren't all bad.

I'm wary of tarring all old public school attendees, officers and politicians with the same brush.
There are exceptions which prove the rule ...
I wouldn't tar them with a brush; I'd tar them with tar.
 
There is a slightly more complete quote of what he actually said here.

"There is a slight word of caution here, which is that whether we like it or not people want to see gratitude,
"My counsel to the Ukrainians is sometimes you're persuading countries to give up their own stocks [of weapons] and yes the war is a noble war and yes we see it as you doing a war for - not just yourself - but our freedoms.
"But sometimes you've got to persuade lawmakers on the Hill in America, you've got to persuade doubting politicians in other countries that you know that it's worth it and it's worthwhile and that they're getting something for it.
"And whether you like that or not, that is just the reality of it."

"Are you planing on invading a third world country again any time soon?"
 
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"I said to the Ukrainians last year, when I drove 11 hours to [Kyiv to] be given a list - I said, I am not Amazon."

You know, I drove all that way - no chauffeur or anything, oh no. 11 hours I said, to Ukraine, like. In a war.
 
Oh, The39thStep - with regards to ammunition manufacture rates and stockpiles, something I forgot to mention that's a big structural thing...

Probably the biggest reason that NATO doesn't carry the kind of vast artillery ammunition stockpiles and maintain the kind of production lines that are necessary to keep up with Ukrainian expenditure rates is that for a lot of what Ukraine uses artillery for, we'd use airpower for.

In NATO doctrine almost all of what's called the Deep Battle (breaking your enemy's logistics, command and control, fuel, ammunition, transport hubs and their own longer range weapons) would be done by air, while Ukraine (and Russia to a large extent) use land based platforms for that - hence they use far more of those land based munitions.

There's a similar difference in Close Support, which is about supporting fires for troops in contact with the enemy - in Soviet/Russian doctrine the coordination of air and ground forces was considered much more difficult that in the west, so they took the view that you'd seek (broadly) to keep them apart and use artillery, mostly pre-planned artillery fire, rather that reactive fires, to support ground troops. NATO took the view that close support by aircraft was a better answer because aircraft are inherently more flexible - in that an F-16 based near Trier in Germany could do a combat air patrol over the Straights of Denmark in the morning, drop bombs on a 3rd Soviet shock Army tank column near Hanover in the afternoon, and escort an F-111 deep pentration raid on the Soviet HQ at Wunsdorf near Berlin.

Cash still plays a role obvs....
 
Aye, once they get some F-16s the US could probably supply them with JDAMs for the next 5 years of war without making any new ones (and they are still making them). Knowing that a 220kg bomb has more than 10x the explosives of a 155mm shell, you don't need to expend them at the same rate as artillery even if you could keep the sortie rate up.

Though I do wonder what they're actually going to use the Falcons for first. They still don't outrange the Foxhounds the Russians have flying behind the lines, so it's tricksy to get close enough to use them in the SEAD role that Ukraine desperately needs them to do. And if they can't do that, they can't get close enough to lob bombs JDAM kit or not. I understand the US has sent over quite a lot of decoy drones, so maybe it's the plan to use them together.
 
No offence to your mate, but I'd have thought an ex-RM (unless he has some specialist expertise in that area like he was a JTAC/FAC or was some ranking officer) is going to know next to fuck all about deployment of air power in Ukraine.
 
Oh, The39thStep - with regards to ammunition manufacture rates and stockpiles, something I forgot to mention that's a big structural thing...

Probably the biggest reason that NATO doesn't carry the kind of vast artillery ammunition stockpiles and maintain the kind of production lines that are necessary to keep up with Ukrainian expenditure rates is that for a lot of what Ukraine uses artillery for, we'd use airpower for.

In NATO doctrine almost all of what's called the Deep Battle (breaking your enemy's logistics, command and control, fuel, ammunition, transport hubs and their own longer range weapons) would be done by air, while Ukraine (and Russia to a large extent) use land based platforms for that - hence they use far more of those land based munitions.

There's a similar difference in Close Support, which is about supporting fires for troops in contact with the enemy - in Soviet/Russian doctrine the coordination of air and ground forces was considered much more difficult that in the west, so they took the view that you'd seek (broadly) to keep them apart and use artillery, mostly pre-planned artillery fire, rather that reactive fires, to support ground troops. NATO took the view that close support by aircraft was a better answer because aircraft are inherently more flexible - in that an F-16 based near Trier in Germany could do a combat air patrol over the Straights of Denmark in the morning, drop bombs on a 3rd Soviet shock Army tank column near Hanover in the afternoon, and escort an F-111 deep pentration raid on the Soviet HQ at Wunsdorf near Berlin.

Cash still plays a role obvs....
Ta . I suppose one of the issues is do you base a key element of economic planning ( if you have a state that is prepared to plan rather than short term market forces ) around what is really a 'permanent arms economy' . There's also an issue with the fact that the USA and the UK for example sold off their steel industries and what was left in the USA for example was some form of amalgamation of it steel producers. Worldwide the largest companies that produce steel are of course Chinese. The fragmentation into key components being produced in other countries can create supply problems , add skill shortages due to an older workforce retiring and the downsizing of production means that there are recruitment issues as well.
Add to the fact that arms producers and their chains of materials arent exactly environmentally friendly and there is a real balancing act to consider.


I am always reminded of the lyrics from Shipbuilding , the Elvis Costello number, which Robert Wyatt achieved some fame with.
 
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Ta . I suppose one of the issues is do you base a key element of economic planning ( if you have a state that is prepared to plan rather than short term market forces ) around what is really a 'permanent arms economy' . There's also an issue with the fact that the USA and the UK for example sold off their steel industries and what was left in the USA for example was some form of amalgamation of it steel producers. Worldwide the largest companies that produce steel are of course Chinese. The fragmentation into key components being produced in other countries can create supply problems , add skill shortages due to an older workforce retiring and the downsizing of production means that there are recruitment issues as well.
Add to the fact that arms producers and their chains of materials arent exactly environmentally friendly and there is a real balancing act to consider.


I am always reminded of the lyrics from Shipbuilding , the Elvis Costello number, which Rober Wyatt achieved some fame with.
Brilliant song. Brilliant version.
 
No offence to your mate, but I'd have thought an ex-RM (unless he has some specialist expertise in that area like he was a JTAC/FAC or was some ranking officer) is going to know next to fuck all about deployment of air power in Ukraine.
He does... stuff that he's occasionally unclear about as a contractor for the MoD. I do know he spent a few months in Poland doing training ops with the Ukrainians recently, so he's current on things but as you say not a pilot or anything like that. TBF, he doesn't talk about it a lot because that's the easy way to not say anything you shouldn't and I'm polite enough to not interrogate him. He spent most of the drinking session complaining about the food in Polish military canteens. "I'll bet you didn't know you could do that many different things with a potato." :D
 
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