well the war studies guy you linked to says
I think that assumes a degree of good faith on Putin's part that looks very unlikely to exist.
Yeah, it's just that Russia is supplying its low grade power plant oil to Europe and continues to benefit from it. The US could reactivate the Keystone and become the alternative source in order to sanction Russia in a serious way. But meanwhile, Putin is bound to believe he can weather the storm with the sanctions that have been done to this point. Take away his oil and he can't fund his army and also the entirety of Russia will be in a full blown panic along with the sanctions already in place. How democratic are coups anyway? The best hope at this point would be a coup. The longer this goes on, the greater the chance that there's an incident with warplanes or navies and that could elevate this to a world war. I know you know that but I think we should do whatever we can to prevent it.
The Keystone Pipeline moves crude oil from tar sands refineries in Canada and the Midwest to refineries in Texas. It is not shut down. President Joe Biden signed an executive order on January 20, 2021, revoking the permit for the Keystone XL, which stands for Keystone "export limited," segment of the Keystone system, which is the fourth phase of the system.
Here is a map of the current Keystone Pipeline from the company's website. Solid green shows the full length in operation and the dotted green line shows the proposed Keystone XL project that was halted in January 2021:
leadstories.com
leadstories.com
I cant see why - I mean wtf do i know - but it looks like a sort of stale mate - if anything Ukraine's position will just get worse as their supply lines and utilities/food get cut off, civilians despair, military imbalance grows etc
That's not what he says. The bits you have put in brackets do not reflect the sentence written in the article:
i dont know what different meaning youve found there
Talks like this can sometimes be used for agreeing non-contentious stuff like repatriation of bodies, opening communication channels for prisoners and stuff like that, sometimes setting boundaries of conflict. I doubt anything will be achieved in the bigger picture.
Too many people in the west caught up in the exciting narrative of good against evil.
We are but pale shadows in the shining light of your overweening worthiness.
Hadn't noticed.
Does the elephant notice the ants which crawl futilely beneath his great feet?
There's quite a big difference between "will have to" and "might even".
i dont see it - in the authors opinion its a protracted stand off that can only be concluded by talks, those talks will require concessions, obviously. theres not much more to say at this point
That, grim as it is, qualifies as the most uplifting thing I’ve read for days.Another analysis by Freedman (Professor of War Studies at KCL) about where the fight is now.
Summary is: not gone well for Russia, choice now between siege or smash the cities with artillery+, and either way makes Putin's position longer term look uncertain.
Apparently the 4 sections are just 4 military command thingies, not a plan for dividing the country. So I read anyhow.
That war professor who LynnDoyleCooper linked to makes the point that just having these negotiations is in a way Russia newly acknowledging the legitimacy of the Ukrainian government, which is an interesting point.
"Denazificarum!"
This doesn't sound like good news.
Top five, deffo
