Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-25

[kebabking]

Open source Int twitter is going into overdrive with lots of indications that a very high readiness Russian formation is massing at the jumping on off points to take a second bite at Ukraine.












There are no exercises declared to NATO or OSCE. Might be something, might be nothing.

 

[brogdale]

Open source Int twitter is going into overdrive with lots of indications that a very high readiness Russian formation is massing at the jumping on off points to take a second bite at Ukraine.












There are no exercises declared to NATO or OSCE. Might be something, might be nothing.

Hmmm

 

[yield]

Nordstream 2 hangs in the balance

 

[kebabking]

And Germany and France in talks with Russia about supplying the Sputnik vaccine.

quid pro quo?

 

[gosub]

In Ukraine, Parliament on Tuesday approved a statement declaring an “escalation” along the front, essentially acknowledging that a cease-fire negotiated in July had broken down. It pointed to a “significant increase in shelling and armed provocations by the armed forces of the Russian Federation.” Fighting Escalates in Eastern Ukraine, Signaling the End to Another Cease-Fire

US Chair of the Joint Chief's of Staff rang his Moscow counterpart over it today, according to CBS and Moscow Times
U.S. watching "escalation of armed confrontation" near Ukraine's border with Russia

Top U.S. General Calls Russia, Ukraine Amid Reported Moscow Troop Buildup - The Moscow Times

The top Pentagon general called counterparts in Russia and Ukraine Wednesday as the U.S.

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[gosub]

Decoding Russia's military buildup near Ukraine (washingtonexaminer.com)

 

[CNT36]

I read earlier there has been a massive spike in interceptions of Russian jets by NATO members this week as well. Hopefully just testing given the new realities but the Ukraine build up seems a bit much for that.

 

[not-bono-ever]

there were scheduled exercises there IIRC recently.

 

[gosub]

NATO - Pressrelease: Visit to NATO by the Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, 22-Mar.-2021

That's the Monday, Private visit to NATO by Ukranian Speaker
Tuesday Ukranian Parliament formally says Ceasefire, whats the fucking point
Wednesday Russian military pops Pet Shop Boys in the tape deck

 

[kebabking]

there were scheduled exercises there IIRC recently.

The Red Army long held a doctrine (and a good one) of going to war almost immediately after an exercise - it got everyone ready, and the logistics looked right for the watchers.

Finish the exercise, plant a couple of non-specific stories in the press about it not going well with some Officers looking for new careers, give everyone a week to get their gear sorted out and fuel and ammunition replenished, and then you're ready to roll and no one suspects a thing....

 

[kebabking]

Timing could be a thing here - assuming this thing is real - it's Easter, everyone is on leave, politicians are on holiday (such holidays as they can have), the basic mechanics of of any western response are harder and will take longer because of Easter.

Putin's gains have not come because he fought NATO and won, it's because he turned up and NATO didn't, so winning by default...

I rather doubt anyone in NATO wants to fight Russia over Ukraine, but the opposite is also true - Russia doesn't want to get into a fight with NATO because a) it will lose, and b) it will go bankrupt - the key to 'defeating' Putin is to not allow him an empty space to move into...

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

I'm sure the EU will swing in to action on this one, an emergency Zoom meeting a week next Friday followed by a vote two weeks later should put the fear of god in to Uncle Vlad.

 

[kebabking]

I'm sure the EU will swing in to action on this one, an emergency Zoom meeting a week next Friday followed by a vote two weeks later should put the fear of god in to Uncle Vlad.

We're I Putin, I would spend my days worrying about the mighty hammer blow Germany is preparing for anyone who invades European countries - literally billions of high grade pieces of silver... err, I mean Euro's are just waiting to flood his bank accounts.

 

[LDC]

"I'll swap you Ukraine for 3 boxes of vaccines?"

 

[gosub]

"I'll swap you Ukraine for 3 boxes of vaccines?"

How many boxes have the EU had from the other side of the North Atlantic?

 

[gosub]

US military raises Europe threat level to 'potential imminent crisis:' report

The U.S. European Command (EUCOM) raised its threat levels in Europe to a "potential imminent crisis" this week as fighting between Russian and Ukrainian

americanmilitarynews.com

 

[kebabking]

Interestingly, while the Russian build up is absolutely real, and may or may not lead to something in Ukraine - or, about to be ex-Ukraine....

nerdy people who have the various flight tracking apps on their phones have noticed a significant number of NATO ISR aircraft spending time around the Baltic (a good few have also been hanging around close to Crimea and the the Black Sea).

Our friend trying to keep everyone on the hop?

 

[gosub]

Interestingly, while the Russian build up is absolutely real, and may or may not lead to something in Ukraine - or, about to be ex-Ukraine....

nerdy people who have the various flight tracking apps on their phones have noticed a significant number of NATO ISR aircraft spending time around the Baltic (a good few have also been hanging around close to Crimea and the the Black Sea).

Our friend trying to keep everyone on the hop?

Belarus

 

[kebabking]

Belarus

Yup, but also...

 

[kebabking]

Tinker, tailor, soldier....

 

[kebabking]

Went out on TASS apparently.

 

[Yossarian]

And Germany and France in talks with Russia about supplying the Sputnik vaccine.

quid pro quo?

I think "Desperate EU leaders secretly agree to trade Ukraine for Sputnik jab" was just a Daily Express April Fool's story.

 

[kebabking]

I think "Desperate EU leaders secretly agree to trade Ukraine for Sputnik jab" was just a Daily Express April Fool's story.

I admit that a few months ago that would have been my reaction - I'm not convinced it's true now, but I wonder if our friend thinks it's true....

 

[Yossarian]

Seems more likely that they're just trying to keep as many options as possible open after their bad bet on the AstraZeneca vaccine.

 

[gosub]

I admit that a few months ago that would have been my reaction - I'm not convinced it's true now, but I wonder if our friend thinks it's true....

1st April is god's gift to counter intelligence

 

[gosub]

Kremlin says military movements near Ukraine are defensive, pose no threat

The Kremlin said on Thursday that recent Russian troop and military hardware movements near Russia's borders with Ukraine were aimed at ensuring Moscow's own security and were not a threat to anyone.

www.reuters.com

 

[kebabking]

Actually, chin that, not happy with source.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Kremlin says military movements near Ukraine are defensive, pose no threat

The Kremlin said on Thursday that recent Russian troop and military hardware movements near Russia's borders with Ukraine were aimed at ensuring Moscow's own security and were not a threat to anyone.

www.reuters.com

Phew!

 

[kebabking]

Interesting snapshot.

 

[gosub]

Actually, chin that, not happy with source.

me, Reuters or the Kremlin?