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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-25

LDC said:
Do you then support the alternative to them that the article suggests: supply F-16s, ATACMs, etc. JimW?
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Don't know, he's clearly coming at this from a very pro Ukraine pov. I'd love to see them win, with Russia expelled entirely, but not versed enough in military matters to judge implications of those proposals.
 
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LDC said:
What do you suggest for Ukraine and the people living there? Complete and total surrender tomorrow, let the Russian military have the land it wants? Ceasefire and negotiations with how things are now? What if Russia refuses to negotiate, what then? And if they do what will you give away to the Russian State, the land and people it has control of now? Or can it keep the thousands of forcibly deported children? Should you give up on the chances of prosecution for any Russian war criminals? Or maybe you will agree to complete disarmament for Ukraine?

What's the grand alternative plan if you think all fighting should stop this moment? Come on, no point repeatedly saying the same thing without giving some alternatives. Winding back the clock to say it shouldn't have started is a lazy and not workable position, or we could just use that for arguing against capitalism etc. Nor is having the proletarian internationalism position that's also wishful thinking in the current moment.

Or do you have something else to suggest? Come on, give us some ideas for actual workable alternatives, I'd take the position you have with some seriousness if you can show some actual practical possibilities rather than the fantasy dreamland position it seems to be otherwise.
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I don't think anyone has answered so I'll have a go.

Though before I do, I think its important to say the hypothetical "yeah but what would you do" question is not a valid one.
This war is a crisis that is many decades in the making. It didnt start in 2022, or 2014, barely even 1989. Like so many of the horrors of the world, they are born of deep roots and long standing institutions. So to ask "what would you do" is ludicrous. Who am I? What power do I have? How many decisions am I in a position to make? Over what time period? Am I in charge of the British Army? President of the USA? NATO Japan office secretary?

Hypothetically temporarily jumping in the driving seat of the class domination juggernaut is not our role <none of these people are anything to do with us. All we can do is try and understand what it is they are doing and why they are doing it, and ideally use that understanding to stop them once and for all. Even to suggest "well lets see you do better" is to give unintentional validity to our leaders, that they're doing the best of a hard situation. No, fuck that, they are the situation.

There's a good reason why MI6 boss Richard Dearlove said Corbyn couldn't be allowed to become PM, or why a British general said the British army could stage a mutiny under Corbyn, or why troops started doing target practice at Corbyns picture. That's a real world example of a hypothetical 'what would you do' in danger of becoming a reality, and it is utterly inconceivable to the establishment......an establishment that creates this and all wars.

I think its a trap to play the What Would You Do game. All we can do is understand What They Do. Does that make sense? I hope so. But that seem like a get out right?

So with that above proviso out the way, and to play along with the hypothetical question, what would you do, first thing is none us here have all the facts available to make any judgement. All we can do is glean truths from amongst the propaganda. For months now it has looked to me like Russia has successfully won the coast from Ukraine, and will cleave off the south. What are the chances of winning that back? We're not privy to all the many variables you would need to know to make that kind of calculation. But from where I'm sat it looks done to me, short of a major escalation, the implications of which are hard to conceive of.

Teuchter's post today sums up how it looks to me, based on my limited access to the full picture. That's how its looked for months now I think despite the best efforts of the media to suggest otherwise. The latest debacle with cluster bombs also suggests munitions are running out in general, adding to the picture of exhaustion. If stalemate is where its at, then there are many ways to go through the mechanics of negotiating that territory, creating a new heavily militarised border. East/West Germany is an example, but I expect there are better ones. Its going to be a new cold war situation.

A state losing territory through war and a border changing is still quite common in world events. One thing I would expect is that from a long view of history if that new Ukrainian border becomes a reality its not a border that's going to last that long (relatively speaking at least). I'd like to think the Russian empire will fragment eventually.
 
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ska invita said:
I don't think anyone has answered so I'll have a go.

Though before I do, I think its important to say the hypothetical "yeah but what would you do" question is not a valid one.
This war is a crisis that is many decades in the making. It didnt start in 2022, or 2014, barely even 1989. Like so many of the horrors of the world, they are born of deep roots and long standing institutions. So to ask "what would you do" is ludicrous. Who am I? What power do I have? How many decisions am I in a position to make? Over what time period? Am I in charge of the British Army? President of the USA? NATO Japan office secretary?

Hypothetically temporarily jumping in the driving seat of the class domination juggernaut is not our role <none of these people are anything to do with us. All we can do is try and understand what it is they are doing and why they are doing it, and ideally use that understanding to stop them once and for all. Even to suggest "well lets see you do better" is to give unintentional validity to our leaders, that they're doing the best of a hard situation. No, fuck that, they are the situation.

There's a good reason why MI6 boss Richard Dearlove said Corbyn couldn't be allowed to become PM, or why a British general said the British army could stage a mutiny under Corbyn, or why troops started doing target practice at Corbyns picture. That's a real world example of a hypothetical 'what would you do' in danger of becoming a reality, and it is utterly inconceivable to the establishment......an establishment that creates this and all wars.

I think its a trap to play the What Would You Do game. All we can do is understand What They Do. Does that make sense? I hope so. But that seem like a get out right?

So with that above proviso out the way, and to play along with the hypothetical question, what would you do, first thing is none us here have all the facts available to make any judgement. All we can do is glean truths from amongst the propaganda. For months now it has looked to me like Russia has successfully won the coast from Ukraine, and will cleave off the south. What are the chances of winning that back? We're not privy to all the many variables you would need to make that kind of decision. But from where I'm sat it looks done to me, short of a major escalation, the implications of which are hard to conceive of.

Teuchter's post today sums up how it looks to me, based on my limited access to the full picture. That's how its looked for months now I think despite the best efforts of the media to suggest otherwise. The latest debacle with cluster bombs also suggests munitions are running out in general, adding to the picture of exhaustion. If stalemate is where its at, then there are many ways to go through the mechanics of negotiating that territory, creating a new heavily militarised border. East/West Germany is an example, but I'm sure there are much better ones. Its going to be a new cold war situation.

A state losing territory through war and a border changing is still quite common in world events. One thing I would expect is that from a long view of history if that new Ukrainian border becomes a reality its not a border that's going to last that long (relatively speaking at least). I'd like to think the Russian empire will fragment eventually.
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Cheers for taking the time to do that. I'll respond later/tomorrow.
 
I reckon it is probably unlikely that the US has a stock of chemical weapons for the simple reason of why would it need them? They're the poor man's nuke, the toy of despots and crackpots and almost as dangerous to the user as the target. The US has nukes and things like FAE which are damn near nuclear levels of destruction. It has enough conventional firepower at its disposal to flatten any other country to the ground. It's nothing to do with morals or principles it just doesn't need such things.
 
Spymaster said:
What's the score with travel bans a visa restrictions on Russian tourists to the EU and Britain at the moment, Bahnhof Strasse ?
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Not much, the sort of Russian who has the means to travel will usually have access to a second passport. I have also booked quite a few, who work for an aviation company, to the US who travel on Russian passports, doesn't seem to be a problem. Biggest issue is flights, pretty much only way to get there is Turkish via Istanbul or Emirates via Dubai and both are gouging the fuck out of it, economy comes in ~£2k minimum for a round trip to Moscow.
 
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Bahnhof Strasse said:
Not much, the sort of Russian who has the means to travel will usually have access to a second passport. I have also booked quite a few, who work for an aviation company, to the US who travel on Russian passports, doesn't seem to be a problem. Biggest issue is flights, pretty much only way to get there is Turkish via Istanbul or Emirates via Dubai and both are gouging the fuck out of it, economy comes in ~£2k minimum for a round trip to Moscow.
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But there are no official restrictions on Russians travelling to the UK or EU?
 
Spymaster said:
What's the score with travel bans a visa restrictions on Russian tourists to the EU and Britain at the moment, Bahnhof Strasse ?
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I think they just fuck off to Montenegro these days. 13,000 Russians and 10,000 Ukrainians in migrant numbers (an interesting split but I'd wager a lot of those Ukrainians are actually 'Russian-linked' and probably for the war. I went on a peace demo briefly when I was there and was reliably informed by our disappointed taxi driver that there were no Ukrainians there).

Montenegro, creeping to get into the EU, has observed the EU rules on the war which include no-fly-zone. So Russians fly to Belgrade first and then get a connecting Air Serbia flight to Podgorica instead. They don't even need a visa.

Russians own 40% of all real estate in Montenegro.
 
Raheem said:
Could also be having 27 new countries to issue visas for.
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That's just the EU being vindictive, they could have treated us exactly the same as when we were a member if they wanted, but were just bitter about us fucking them off and not paying our dues, typical of them Europeans.
 
The39thStep said:
Some sort of trade off/support for Turkey joining the EU?
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That's certainly one of the reasons, according to the press release from NATO


Sweden and Türkiye have also agreed to step up economic cooperation, through the Türkiye-Sweden Joint Economic and Trade Committee (JETCO). Both Türkiye and Sweden will look to maximise opportunities to increase bilateral trade and investments. Sweden will actively support efforts to reinvigorate Türkiye’s EU accession process, including modernisation of the EU-Türkiye Customs Union and visa liberalisation.
 
Imo the FSB were behind the whole issue of Turkey objecting to Sweden, because they organised a Qur'an burning in Stockholm. But Erdogan knows which side his bread is buttered at the end of the day.
 
ska invita said:
I don't think anyone has answered so I'll have a go.

Though before I do, I think its important to say the hypothetical "yeah but what would you do" question is not a valid one.
This war is a crisis that is many decades in the making. It didnt start in 2022, or 2014, barely even 1989. Like so many of the horrors of the world, they are born of deep roots and long standing institutions. So to ask "what would you do" is ludicrous. Who am I? What power do I have? How many decisions am I in a position to make? Over what time period? Am I in charge of the British Army? President of the USA? NATO Japan office secretary?

Hypothetically temporarily jumping in the driving seat of the class domination juggernaut is not our role <none of these people are anything to do with us. All we can do is try and understand what it is they are doing and why they are doing it, and ideally use that understanding to stop them once and for all. Even to suggest "well lets see you do better" is to give unintentional validity to our leaders, that they're doing the best of a hard situation. No, fuck that, they are the situation.

There's a good reason why MI6 boss Richard Dearlove said Corbyn couldn't be allowed to become PM, or why a British general said the British army could stage a mutiny under Corbyn, or why troops started doing target practice at Corbyns picture. That's a real world example of a hypothetical 'what would you do' in danger of becoming a reality, and it is utterly inconceivable to the establishment......an establishment that creates this and all wars.

I think its a trap to play the What Would You Do game. All we can do is understand What They Do. Does that make sense? I hope so. But that seem like a get out right?

So with that above proviso out the way, and to play along with the hypothetical question, what would you do, first thing is none us here have all the facts available to make any judgement. All we can do is glean truths from amongst the propaganda. For months now it has looked to me like Russia has successfully won the coast from Ukraine, and will cleave off the south. What are the chances of winning that back? We're not privy to all the many variables you would need to know to make that kind of calculation. But from where I'm sat it looks done to me, short of a major escalation, the implications of which are hard to conceive of.

Teuchter's post today sums up how it looks to me, based on my limited access to the full picture. That's how its looked for months now I think despite the best efforts of the media to suggest otherwise. The latest debacle with cluster bombs also suggests munitions are running out in general, adding to the picture of exhaustion. If stalemate is where its at, then there are many ways to go through the mechanics of negotiating that territory, creating a new heavily militarised border. East/West Germany is an example, but I expect there are better ones. Its going to be a new cold war situation.

A state losing territory through war and a border changing is still quite common in world events. One thing I would expect is that from a long view of history if that new Ukrainian border becomes a reality its not a border that's going to last that long (relatively speaking at least). I'd like to think the Russian empire will fragment eventually.
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I don’t necessarily agree but Fairplay forgiving thought out answer. I respect you for that.
I think, as another armchair nobody, Russia aren’t in a situation where they can negotiate something like this. Unfortunately I think still many more people die until they are brought to the position, where negotiation looks like the survivable option. for the regime. They will spin it as a success. Of course to the Russian populous. The dynamics on the Russian side are too hard to read from here.
 
ska invita said:
I don't think anyone has answered so I'll have a go.

Though before I do, I think its important to say the hypothetical "yeah but what would you do" question is not a valid one.
This war is a crisis that is many decades in the making. It didnt start in 2022, or 2014, barely even 1989. Like so many of the horrors of the world, they are born of deep roots and long standing institutions. So to ask "what would you do" is ludicrous. Who am I? What power do I have? How many decisions am I in a position to make? Over what time period? Am I in charge of the British Army? President of the USA? NATO Japan office secretary?

Hypothetically temporarily jumping in the driving seat of the class domination juggernaut is not our role <none of these people are anything to do with us. All we can do is try and understand what it is they are doing and why they are doing it, and ideally use that understanding to stop them once and for all. Even to suggest "well lets see you do better" is to give unintentional validity to our leaders, that they're doing the best of a hard situation. No, fuck that, they are the situation.

There's a good reason why MI6 boss Richard Dearlove said Corbyn couldn't be allowed to become PM, or why a British general said the British army could stage a mutiny under Corbyn, or why troops started doing target practice at Corbyns picture. That's a real world example of a hypothetical 'what would you do' in danger of becoming a reality, and it is utterly inconceivable to the establishment......an establishment that creates this and all wars.

I think its a trap to play the What Would You Do game. All we can do is understand What They Do. Does that make sense? I hope so. But that seem like a get out right?

So with that above proviso out the way, and to play along with the hypothetical question, what would you do, first thing is none us here have all the facts available to make any judgement. All we can do is glean truths from amongst the propaganda. For months now it has looked to me like Russia has successfully won the coast from Ukraine, and will cleave off the south. What are the chances of winning that back? We're not privy to all the many variables you would need to know to make that kind of calculation. But from where I'm sat it looks done to me, short of a major escalation, the implications of which are hard to conceive of.

Teuchter's post today sums up how it looks to me, based on my limited access to the full picture. That's how its looked for months now I think despite the best efforts of the media to suggest otherwise. The latest debacle with cluster bombs also suggests munitions are running out in general, adding to the picture of exhaustion. If stalemate is where its at, then there are many ways to go through the mechanics of negotiating that territory, creating a new heavily militarised border. East/West Germany is an example, but I expect there are better ones. Its going to be a new cold war situation.

A state losing territory through war and a border changing is still quite common in world events. One thing I would expect is that from a long view of history if that new Ukrainian border becomes a reality its not a border that's going to last that long (relatively speaking at least). I'd like to think the Russian empire will fragment eventually.
Click to expand...
There are long, medium, and short-term causes of the war, it's not like it was inevitable. Sure, there are some causes to it that go back a long way, but the proximate issues required certain people to make certain decisions in the last couple of years.

e2a the germany bit bollocks, that was the partition of a country that had sought world domination. Korea a more apt example, with the war frozen but not over

A year ago I posted about how the Ukrainians were expending munitions faster than they could be produced. It's been regularly reported in er the media so I suggest it's more people who haven't been reading the media to whom this comes as any sort of surprise or news
 
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Raheem said:
Imo the FSB were behind the whole issue of Turkey objecting to Sweden, because they organised a Qur'an burning in Stockholm. But Erdogan knows which side his bread is buttered at the end of the day.
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Returning the 5 POWs to Ukraine, and now backing Sweden's entry looks like he's openly chucking Moscow a wanker sign. A deal has been done. Expect to see Turkey's full accession to the EU in the near future?
 
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strung out said:
I think much of this could be true eventually, but it seems rather unfair and hasty to start demanding Ukraine and its allies start talking about negotiation and formally giving up territory, when they're five weeks into a new counter offensive, when their previous counter offensives have been wildly successful, with much worse equipment (and yes, admittedly against worse defenses).

Maybe the time you describe could come at some point in the future, perhaps next year, but it's still way too early for anyone to be making judgements on the current counter offensive, or to already be encouraging Ukraine to cut unsavoury deals.
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I'm not really coming at it from that angle though; that is, to try and say that now is the time Ukraine should accept some sort of negotiated deal.
More, looking at what other countries should or could be doing, the "what other options are there" question that is coming up in conjunction with the cluster bombs discussion.
Specifically, that if the basic commitment is to provide military aid to Ukraine, then are there better ways of doing that than drip-feeding a supply of problematic weaponry.
And what are the reasons for not doing something more positive and direct: is it mainly about the fear of nuclear escalation, or is it actually to do with other stuff?

Also, a decision to do something more substantial - why should it have to wait until we see what the effectiveness of any counter-offensive is? A year is a long time to wait and see, a long enough time for massive amounts of further damage and suffering to take place.

In other words once you've decided that what needs to happen is for the Russian military to be pushed out of Ukraine by force - and if you reject the notion of any kind of negotiated compromise that's surely what you have decided needs to happen - then why not make it happen as quickly and as soon as possible.
 
Pickman's model said:
Even the hundred years war, the eighty years war and the thirty years war ended. So your notion of a never-ending war is about as likely to happen as a sensible, considered post from you on this or pretty much any other subject
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I didn't say anything about a "never-ending" war though did I. If you're going to engage in the tedious sniping you like to pretend you are never the instigator of, you could at least try and do it properly.
 
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