UK election poll: Rochdale

[PR1Berske]

In one corner, George Galloway of the Workers Party, riding back into the Commons on the wave of Gaza from an undescribable mess of a by-election.

In the other, journalist and political commentator Paul Waugh, denied a place on the by-election ballot by a local Councillor who was ultimately disowned.

Defending by-election wins is a difficult task at the best of times. In this weird general election, who knows?

Do you know? Let's see what the forum thinks. (Elections are compared like for like so it will be a Labour defence or WP win)

 

[Silas Loom]

Why isn’t comparison with the recent by election “like for like”? Election coverage always counts gains and losses on the basis of who the actual incumbent is when the election was called.

Voting Labour GAIN.

 

[chilango]

Galloway might well hang on. I can't see Labour enthusing that many voters to return to them.

 

[moochedit]

The independent that came second in the by-election isn't standing this time iirc.

Also turnout will be higher so i reckon labour will win it this time round.

 

[PR1Berske]

Why isn’t comparison with the recent by election “like for like”? Election coverage always counts gains and losses on the basis of who the actual incumbent is when the election was called.

Voting Labour GAIN.

General elections are always compared like for like. Rochdale is a Labour seat.

 

[Silas Loom]

General elections are always compared like for like. Rochdale is a Labour seat.

I think you’ve got this wrong. As have I.

Election 2017: How election results are calculated and reported by the BBC

All the details on how the general election result is calculated and reported by the BBC.

www.bbc.co.uk

What is meant when a party wins, holds or gains a seat?

What matters most is how many "seats" each party wins, and for things to change political parties need to win seats from each other.
Because winning seats from each other is so important, a special language is used to show this. Seats that are won can mainly fall into two categories: holdor gain.

• Hold: If a party wins a seat that it won in 2015, this is described as a "hold"
• Gain: If a party wins a seat that it did not win in 2015, this is called a "gain"
• Win: Where there has been a by-election since the 2015 election and that by-election resulted in a different party gaining the seat compared with the general election result

Clearly these are really important to the opposition parties.
If they are to form a new government, they need to win seats from the existing government and other parties to make "gains", while they retain or "hold" all the seats they had last time.

The options are Labour WIN or Baathist WIN. It can’t be a hold or a gain for either party.

 

[rasputin]

Survation poll from a week ago

 

[MickiQ]

I expect Labour to win setting aside last time's monumental cockup over candidates, GE's are about picking a Govt not registering a protest.
Expect Galloway will be a sore loser though

 

[Wilf]

I expect Labour to win setting aside last time's monumental cockup over candidates, GE's are about picking a Govt not registering a protest.
Expect Galloway will be a sore loser though

I suspect most of the people who voted Galloway last time will have the same reasons in play this time. Also, everyone knows Labour will win nationally, so there's no need to get a Lab MP in Rochdale. So it will be about whether Lab can motivate their non Muslim core vote, having pretty much lost the Muslim vote. Particularly the non voters from last time. Hedging my bets, I'd say Lab and Galloway will be within 2000 votes of each other.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I expect Labour to win setting aside last time's monumental cockup over candidates, GE's are about picking a Govt not registering a protest.
Expect Galloway will be a sore loser though

Is this another MickiQ fact? Galloway won in the 2005 GE standing for Respect due to the anger of a Muslim population about the Labour party's disgusting behaviour in the part of the world we call the Middle East (West Asia would be a more accurate description).Those voters were not picking a govt. They were registering a protest.

 

[AnnO'Neemus]

Why isn’t comparison with the recent by election “like for like”? Election coverage always counts gains and losses on the basis of who the actual incumbent is when the election was called.

Voting Labour GAIN.

I suspect the issue that swung many votes in Galloway's favour, ie Gaza, remains an issue that will swing many votes in his favour again.

I don't think Starmer's said or done anything to win back those in the electorate who think the former human rights barrister has been pretty much turning a blind eye to some of the worst human rights abuses, which are still ongoing.

Gaza war: Israeli strikes may have violated laws of war, UN says

Israel says the UN report into six strikes last year that killed at least 218 people is "flawed”.

www.bbc.com

 

[moochedit]

PR1Berske seems you can add polls again to threads in the new forum so you need to add them back to your poll threads in here. Looks like people will need to vote again though.

 

[moochedit]

I see it's back PR1Berske

 

[The39thStep]

Is this another MickiQ fact? Galloway won in the 2005 GE standing for Respect due to the anger of a Muslim population about the Labour party's disgusting behaviour in the part of the world we call the Middle East (West Asia would be a more accurate description).Those voters were not picking a govt. They were registering a protest.

Let nothing interfere with the suburban bliss of micki's armcahir

 

[Silas Loom]

Ffs. Incorrigible.

 

[imposs1904]

Just saw this. Wow. George Galloway. What a guy.

 

[Wilf]

Just saw this. Wow. George Galloway. What a guy.

Yeah, but I'm sure that as soon as the election is over he'll focus on potholes, helping his constituents with their benefit claims and all the quiet work that gets no publicity. I'm sure.

 

[farmerbarleymow]

Really hope the odious twat in a hat loses.

 

[tim]

Really hope the odious twat in a hat loses.

Yes, I wonder how Dr Seuss would have portrayed our favourite Red-Brown pussycat.

 

[Dogsauce]

Has there been any constituentcy polling lately? What are his chances? Do Labour have a half decent local candidate or some parachuted-in gonk with a PPE degree?

 

[zahir]

Do Labour have a half decent local candidate or some parachuted-in gonk with a PPE degree?

A journalist from London, though originally from Rochdale. I doubt that he has much personal support.

Rochdale: Political journalist Paul Waugh vies to become Labour MP

Mr Waugh will be hoping to take the seat from George Galloway, who won it in a February by-election.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Karl Masks]

I expect Labour to win setting aside last time's monumental cockup over candidates, GE's are about picking a Govt not registering a protest.
Expect Galloway will be a sore loser though

if other WP candidates take seats, however unlikely, and he loses his, i will laugh

 

[Wilf]

I suspect the circumstances of this seat make it pretty difficult to predict, using the usual methodologies of applying national polls to specific seats. Normally a landslide Labour seat, then Labour's fuck up over withdrawn candidate, twat gets in etc. In other words, the by election doesn't give you much to work out who will win this time.

Much as a I loathe Galloway, there's nothing at all good in Labour winning it back. For Rochdale or for Gaza.

 

[Jeff Robinson]

Much as a I loathe Galloway, there's nothing at all good in Labour winning it back. For Rochdale or for Gaza.

Initially, I thought Galloway beating labour in Rochdale was on balance good to punish them for their dreadful Gaza stance. Now, however, I want Galloway to lose again. He represents a form of politics that is particularly depraved - the in vein of Farage and Trump - that needs to be stamped out everywhere as soon as possible.

 

[Wilf]

I suspect the circumstances of this seat make it pretty difficult to predict, using the usual methodologies of applying national polls to specific seats. Normally a landslide Labour seat, then Labour's fuck up over withdrawn candidate, twat gets in etc. In other words, the by election doesn't give you much to work out who will win this time.

Much as a I loathe Galloway, there's nothing at all good in Labour winning it back. For Rochdale or for Gaza.

Another way of thinking about this is Galloway got his victory in the absurd circumstances Starmer created by disowning his own candidate, but the Workers Party only got 2 seats in the council election (of the 10 or so that make up with Constituency - 2 central Rochdale seats with the highest Muslim populations). From that and with it being a general election, you'd think Labour would win the seat back. But equally, the Worker's Party would have had very little organisation on the ground as well as the fact this is also about the, yuk, 'big personality' of Galloway. Feck knows, but I'd go with a Labour victory by 2 or 3 thousand votes.

 

[Wilf]

Initially, I thought Galloway beating labour in Rochdale was on balance good to punish them for their dreadful Gaza stance. Now, however, I want Galloway to lose again. He represents a form of politics that is particularly depraved - the in vein of Farage and Trump - that needs to be stamped out everywhere as soon as possible.

What astonishes me is that I still, after all these decades, find further reasons to dislike him. Most recently his anti-LGBT stuff. He's fucking horrible and, as you say, embodies the worst sort of populism.

 

[planetgeli]

Close but no cigar George.

Now fuck off.

 

[Combustible]

Initially, I thought Galloway beating labour in Rochdale was on balance good to punish them for their dreadful Gaza stance. Now, however, I want Galloway to lose again. He represents a form of politics that is particularly depraved - the in vein of Farage and Trump - that needs to be stamped out everywhere as soon as possible.

Pro Gaza independents winning. Galloway and other WPB candidates losing. Best of both worlds.