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Traitors on BBC

I still don't get it. I don't see how it changes the odds.
The shielded group can’t be murdered. They can only be banished.

The unshielded group can be banished or murdered. If you are in the unshielded group it makes sense to ensure that the person being banished comes from the shielded group, not the unshielded group. (That’s something you have control over). The numbers now are that it doesn’t take many votes (now out of 9) to have the largest number of votes and be banished. An agreement by the unshielded group to vote out one particular person in the shielded group will do it.

This is about your own odds as a member of the unshielded group, not about being right about who you banish.
 
The shielded group can’t be murdered. They can only be banished.

The unshielded group can be banished or murdered. If you are in the unshielded group it makes sense to ensure that the person being banished comes from the shielded group, not the unshielded group. (That’s something you have control over). The numbers now are that it doesn’t take many votes (now out of 9) to have the largest number of votes and be banished. An agreement by the unshielded group to vote out one particular person in the shielded group will do it.

This is about your own odds as a member of the unshielded group, not about being right about who you banish.

But the only way it changes the odds is by proper planning together to banish one person - that's got nothing to do with them being shielded. And all the banishee gets out of it is, well, losing the game.
 
But the only way it changes the odds is by proper planning together to banish one person - that's got nothing to do with them being shielded. And all the banishee gets out of it is, well, losing the game.
Yes, you do need proper planning. You need an agreement among the non shielded team.

But it is to do with there being two sets of players. One set who currently can only be banished. And one set who could be murdered or banished. It makes sense for those in the second set to ensure that the banishing only happens from the first set.
 
Yes, you do need proper planning. You need an agreement among the non shielded team.

But it is to do with there being two sets of players. One set who currently can only be banished. And one set who could be murdered or banished. It makes sense for those in the second set to ensure that the banishing only happens from the first set.

It only makes sense if one person is willing to sacrifice themselves. And shielded/unshielded makes no difference at all.
 
It only makes sense if one person is willing to sacrifice themselves. And shielded/unshielded makes no difference at all.
I’m sorry, I haven’t explained this well.

If you are one of 5 people liable to be murdered or banished, you’d prefer your chances if you could only be murdered. That would mean instead of a 2 out of 5 chance of leaving the game you only have a 1 out of 5 chance.

How can you ensure that? You agree with all the others open to both murder and banishment to pick one of the 5 people who don’t have a chance of being murdered: those who are shielded.

Allowing banishment to be an option for the group you are in only increases your chances of leaving the game.

It’s fair to say the players only clocked this very late in the game. This is because we as a species believe we can read people. We can see emotions. What we can’t do is read minds. We can make up stories to explain the emotions we see, but as the players have demonstrated, these stories are just stories, and are often bonkers.

Unless the Traitors make mistakes (like the mistake Meryl made when she gave away her shield possession to Wilf: intelligence he couldn’t actually use without exposing himself) chance is all the Faithful have. And the odds are against them from the start. They have to take the opportunity to alter the odds when they can.
 
I'm sorry Danny, I'm still failing to see why anyone would agree to be the one voted for. The suggestion was about voting for someone from your own group.
 
I'm sorry Danny, I'm still failing to see why anyone would agree to be the one voted for. The suggestion was about voting for someone from your own group.
They wouldn’t. That’s not the plan.

OK. Group A is shielded. Group B is not. Members of Group B could be murdered. And they could be banished. I’m in group B. So are you. I know I’m Faithful. So I can be murdered. I can also be mistakenly banished! Same for you. But wait! What if we agree to vote for Voley in group A? His name has come up several times. We don’t know he is a Traitor. We might be wrong. But if we can convince the rest of our group - group B - to vote for him, that’ll probably be enough votes to get him out. (Group A aren’t in on this and their votes will be split). That way we can be sure it isn’t someone from group B who gets voted out! Phew, that means we only have to worry about being murdered. Not murdered and banished like now!
 
They wouldn’t. That’s not the plan.

OK. Group A is shielded. Group B is not. Members of Group B could be murdered. And they could be banished. I’m in group B. So are you. I know I’m Faithful. So I can be murdered. I can also be mistakenly banished! Same for you. But wait! What if we agree to vote for Voley in group A? His name has come up several times. We don’t know he is a Traitor. We might be wrong. But if we can convince the rest of our group - group B - to vote for him, that’ll probably be enough votes to get him out. (Group A aren’t in on this and their votes will be split). That way we can be sure it isn’t someone from group B who gets voted out! Phew, that means we only have to worry about being murdered. Not murdered and banished like now!

But that wasn't the suggestion in the show!
 
But that wasn't the suggestion in the show!
It’s the one I noticed. The group who didn’t have the shield were going to vote out someone from the group who did. (But they didn’t get to because of the parlour game they had to play instead).
 
Another tactic would be for the group with the shield to vote for someone in the group who didn’t have the shield. That way the shielded group couldn’t be murdered or voted out! But I don’t think that suggestion has come up yet.

Unless I’m misremembering and it is what was suggested. 🤣

But in my favour, both are strategies that make sense!
 
I think the discussion above illustrates well how the game itself is just a guessing game :D

I think this is both a flaw and a strength in the show as a whole.

It's a flaw in that there is real no way of work out who the traitors are and a strength, for the viewer at least, in that it's fascinating watching a group turn on someone for no apparent reason.
 
I think the discussion above illustrates well how the game itself is just a guessing game :D

I think this is both a flaw and a strength in the show as a whole.

It's a flaw in that there is real no way of work out who the traitors are and a strength, for the viewer at least, in that it's fascinating watching a group turn on someone for no apparent reason.
There is a way to work it out. I would be rumbled in seconds. It's just that those two are very good liars.
 
I think the discussion above illustrates well how the game itself is just a guessing game :D

I think this is both a flaw and a strength in the show as a whole.

It's a flaw in that there is real no way of work out who the traitors are and a strength, for the viewer at least, in that it's fascinating watching a group turn on someone for no apparent reason.

I think for the next series it'd be good to give the faithful some chance of making actual guesses. Like skipping the midnight discussions and obliging them to find a way to discuss it discreetly, so people can watch for who goes off together. Or all staying in the same place (I don't think they are this time) so they can listen out for doors suspiciously opening late at night. Or something, not just blind guessing.

I sometimes wonder if they were told the rules properly. I mean, apart from Maddy, none of them come across as spectacularly thick, and they're all still acting as if the traitors chose their role. Kieran seems to get it a little more - he pointed out that there was probably a mix of genders, at least - but that's it.
 
I am starting to see the cracks a bit though. The scene with Will, Kieran, Meryl and Hannah looked staged as fuck, like something from Love Island, and what happens if the first three picks are the traitors? The rest of the series would just be people doing jobs, so they need to ensure there's at least one traitor in at the end. So if you're a faithful then the game is really just getting to the end (or becoming a traitor).
Statistically it’s vanishingly unlikely that they’d get the first three picks in a row right. But even if they got the first pick right, the traitors would be given the chance to recruit.

It really is stacked in the Traitors’ favour.

Unless they fuck up by giving themselves away, like Meryl would do! Or by bad strategy, like Wilf. The only reason Amanda was in the firing line was because he put her there! And Keiron will see that. He’ll also see what happened to Alyssa. Having thrown Amanda under the bus (bad move - she was the brains), he should have then kept to himself.
 
Wilf has made a huge error. If Keiron says yes, as he surely has to, then he’ll know Wilf isn’t to be trusted. He can throw Wilf under the bus at the round table and everyone will go with it.

But then would the group cotton on to Kieran? I think wilf did the right thing because Amanda would have done it to him eventually.

ETA: I imagine if the last traitor gets banished the remaining Faithfuls win and share the prize fund. Only two episodes left so we will know by tomorrow ..
 
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