marty21
One on one? You're crazy.
pretty true - although I thought that Leave didn't want to be too mean towards immigrants - and grass roots have open season on them
Tory UK EU Exit Referendum
- Thread starter paolo
- Start date
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
yeah Hollobone and purglove are figure among the luminaries so I'd assume there would be loads of immigrant bashing. He's mental on the subject
gosub
~#
More complicated than that: vote Leave spent ages before designation spouting that a leave vote would mean staying in on better terms, which the eventually dropped but still say a vote to leave doesn't mean using the exit. rather, smash through a wall and then set up trade deals in world record time, only the decision to do that, would if it came to it, be one for the government to make
. But this allows them to say a leave vote will enable us to tackle immigration, BUT they don't want Farage on the platform because he talks about immigration. The actual designation was a bit of a stitch up too, at least three groups cried foul when they saw vote Leave had them down as supporting their claim when they had been working with GO. I sort of agreed with vote Leave that Farage was too marmite so needed distance, but thats a nonsense given the campaign they are running.
I have come up with my own conspiracy theory: The referendum isn't about leaving the EU. The group-think is too entrenched for that. It provided the tories a chance to shore up the support it was losing to UKIP and give some of its own members a chance to vent some spleen, and allow showcasing for next party leadership (a bigger prize somehow) Labour staying above the fray looking to pick up votes in the EUropean elections - though will make UKIP more red as disaffected Labourites replace UKIPites returning to Tories. And they all happily pick up the EUropean party allowances and sit back and listen to the band having not rocked the boat too much.
Then the EUrozone crashes the ship into an iceberg.
ffsear
Well-Known Member
So 2 weeks after telling us a brexit could lead to interest rates going up, now were being told that brexit could cause a recession. Nice own goal by project fear!
Bank Raises Recession Fears In Brexit Warning
Bank Raises Recession Fears In Brexit Warning
gosub
~#
raising interest rates would slow the economy. The own goal is by Brexit : by leaving a range of exits on the table (most of which unworkable) Carney has to respond to all of them +factor in confusion, that leads to sound bites like that. At least nobody's complaining he's Canadian
ffsear
Well-Known Member
...And a recession would lead to a lowering of interest rates (well keeping them at record lows anyway) They can't claim that interest rates are going up and we are heading into a recession at the same time. Makes no economic sense.
gosub
~#
No, interest rates would have to go up to shore up the pound, limited by the amount of debt defaults the banks could stomach. Recessions happen, its economic cycle, Gordon Brown may have thought different but was a bit like King Canute and the tide (Canute was actually just showing up sycophants). Recession clears out the dodgy debts and has an evolutionary affect on business, but it does cause genuine pain..
As is, the average economic cycle since WW2 has been under 7 years. 2016 - 2008 is 8 years. The things will return to normal after an IN vote is a little optimistic.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Nobody really understands what economic cycles are, they merely observe that they happen. However, there is good reason to think that we're in a very different, new period now. Entrenched debt levels, but record interest rate lows, general reluctance in the private sector to borrow riskily, very low inflation veering dangerously towards deflation, sporadic attempts by govt to stimulate things.
This exact process has been going on in Japan for 25 years now. There are big parallels to be drawn with Japan over this and good reasons to think that the UK could be locked into similar stagnation for decades.
ffsear
Well-Known Member
You can't shore up a currency simpley buy fucking around with monetary policy. George Soros taught us that in 1992. Beside, what about the stimulus to exporters caused by a weaker pound.
A lot of people in the UK are highly leveraged at the moment. An increase in interest rates would be suicide!
Oh there will be a storm, but we can ride it out without upping rates.
A lot of people in the UK are highly leveraged at the moment. An increase in interest rates would be suicide!
Oh there will be a storm, but we can ride it out without upping rates.
gosub
~#
I'd agree we've japaned, doesn't mean Japan doesn't have an economic cycle.
gosub
~#
No, Soros taught are there are limits. Moving 10% to 12% was blood in the water and moving from 10 to 15% in a day was bloody suicidal. The resulting squat parties opposite the tech cost me my A levels. (no regrets)
Its one of the many reasons it would be EFTA, through Article 50
weltweit
Well-Known Member
I am not sure you can compare UK to Japan like that, Japan have a massive trade surplus.
gosub
~#
you've got the same massively over inflated property price causation
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Had.
The comparisons between Japan 1990 and the UK 2008 are valuable, I think. I've linked to it before on here - the overall debt was very similar and the reaction also similar - private sector confidence collapsing, the economy saved from depression by heavy govt borrowing, followed eventually by several rounds of quantitative easing. Private sector confidence remaining relatively low as interest rates drop to and remain at near-zero. Very low growth, if any, plus widespread wage and price freezes. The major difference between Japan 1990 and UK 2008 is that the private debt crisis in Japan occurred mostly at company level, whereas in the UK it occurred mostly at household level, but looking at %age of GDP, the figures are strikingly similar.
And Japan is still in that 'cycle'. Hard to describe it as a cycle when it's been there for so long. It's not the end of the world - for any Japanese person under 30, this will be all they know, and they're living their lives ok - but it's unclear how the contradictions that are building up, particularly wrt QE, will eventually be unravelled. Truth is that nobody knows.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Yep. I believe Japanese property prices still haven't quite returned to their 1989 level.
It's a few of years since I looked into this properly. But the more I looked (this was around 2009-10) the more parallels I found.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Yes, I would have thought so.
weltweit
Well-Known Member
Well, I learnt something then, I thought Japan's trade surplus was hard wired into their economy!Had.
The comparisons between Japan 1990 and the UK 2008 are valuable, I think. I've linked to it before on here - the overall debt was very similar and the reaction also similar - private sector confidence collapsing, the economy saved from depression by heavy govt borrowing, followed eventually by several rounds of quantitative easing. Private sector confidence remaining relatively low as interest rates drop to and remain at near-zero. Very low growth, if any, plus widespread wage and price freezes. The major difference between Japan 1990 and UK 2008 is that the private debt crisis in Japan occurred mostly at company level, whereas in the UK it occurred mostly at household level, but looking at %age of GDP, the figures are strikingly similar.
And Japan is still in that 'cycle'. Hard to describe it as a cycle when it's been there for so long. It's not the end of the world - for any Japanese person under 30, this will be all they know, and they're living their lives ok - but it's unclear how the contradictions that are building up, particularly wrt QE, will eventually be unravelled. Truth is that nobody knows.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Not now he's said he would have no choice but to exercise article 50 the day after a vote to leave. There's actually been a series of claims that a NO vote would not mean 'we' would have to leave if a NO vote wins. Each of them has since disappeared, broken.
gosub
~#
Japan GDP Growth Rate | 1980-2016 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast trend is toward flatlining, but you still have cycle though a lot of that will be the machine.
gosub
~#
That depends on who you talk to. Little wriggle room for Dave, he'd be gone. The bubble at the core of vote Leave has seemed to think not, and still don't say it will Article 50, but just today Juncker has said we would be out. What i think would happen is Cameron would ride out til just before Parliamentary summer holiday 21st July, during which he'd sign Article 50 (as he told Parliament he would).- Markets wouldn't find rabbit in the headlights a good look. Resign, let Sir Jeremy Heywood handle the preliminaries and leave the Tories to have their leadership election, during which Mr Gove and Mr Johnson would have to reapraise their views on the Single market
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Depends on a number of factors, if it was a close vote on a low turnout I'd be willing to put money on the referendum to be rerun ala Ireland. Johnson already flew that idea.
free spirit
more tea vicar?
the Fukashima impact, with a huge switch from nuclear to imported fossil fuels.
gosub
~#
That would be a disaster in quite a few ways, but can't rule it out. There is difference between this referendum and the ones in France, Netherlands and Ireland (getting quite a list) - that was for treaties that all member states had to pass, this is just us.
realitybites
Active Member
If dodgy dave and his business cronies want us to stay in, you can bet it's all for their own personal benefit. I've got another 25 years working the public sector and dont see how any of this will affect me, my finances are stretched for all the obvious reasons and an in or an out vote won't change any of that. All the same I'm
Going to vote with my two fingers, like all part time punks should.. Whatever happened to the punks anyway? What would Johnny Rotten of done? Guy Debord? What would he do now?
Going to vote with my two fingers, like all part time punks should.. Whatever happened to the punks anyway? What would Johnny Rotten of done? Guy Debord? What would he do now?
ffsear
Well-Known Member
Its mesns that we,ll by free to negotiate with who we want.
Look hoe this 'political' debate has turned into a debate about economics. Most EU countries are in huge debt to the ECB. Polotices through through back door. The EU is run by bankers, not politicians.
Time to get out
ruffneck23
front left
well johnny rotten is now selling butter so what does that tell you ?
And a post-Brexit UK would be run by bankers, and by the City more generally, to any smaller extent?
gosub
~#
He fucked up as an LA property developer
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