Tory UK EU Exit Referendum

[DJWrongspeed]

So what will the undecided 13% do , if they vote at all? Like it or not Britain leaving will be too explosive right now. Would Cameron actually act on a leave referendum result anyway. Wouldn't he wait and have another one.

 

[Pickman's model]

who has insight into their mindset? Whoever it is that can harness a punchy, confident and genuine grassroots movement (which is what it will be if they win the ref) will implement policies I won't like.

I'm much happier with your vision... how do we get there?

follow me, comrade, and i will lead you to the promised land

 

[Pickman's model]

So what will the undecided 13% do , if they vote at all? Like it or not Britain leaving will be too explosive right now. Would Cameron actually act on a leave referendum result anyway. Wouldn't he wait and have another one.

i think he'd have to resign sharpish as no one would have confidence in him

 

[weltweit]

yes, it is a jump into the dark. but we all know the auld social europe's no longer on the agenda, if it ever really was, and if we leave then the remainder of the eu is not a sturdy an edifice as it was before. the uk leaving might prompt other countries to reconsider their position, and there would be a shortfall in the eu's income which would need to be made up one way or another.

but have your safe 'i know my place' position. doubt you've the backbone to fight for a better world anyway.

Are you really suggesting that Britain leaving could bring the whole EU house of cards down around them and that this could be a good thing?

 

[agricola]

Are you really suggesting that Britain leaving could bring the whole EU house of cards down around them and that this could be a good thing?

It would certainly set a precedent, and at the very least it would cause the remaining EU member states to ask what the point of this glacial pace of ever-closer union is.

 

[Pickman's model]

Are you really suggesting that Britain leaving could bring the whole EU house of cards down around them and that this could be a good thing?

if the big words are too much for you just say so and i will use little words.

 

[kabbes]

Is this the impact of the leaflet we're seeing?

We can only speculate on the reasons for the polling data, unfortunately. Different commentators have different theories about the results of the kabbes poll.

 

[Santino]

We can only speculate on the reasons for the polling data, unfortunately. Different commentators have different theories about the results of the kabbes poll.

Is it true that 40% of all kabbes are kabbes?

 

[brogdale]

We can only speculate on the reasons for the polling data, unfortunately. Different commentators have different theories about it.

I suspect that, at this stage of the campaign, a seizable portion of any R ->L swing will correlate with anti-tory (Cameron) sentiment, and clearly things have been fucking shocking for them for a couple of weeks. If/when we next start to see boats in the Med or another European terrorist outrage dominating the news agenda, then we might start to see a more significant polling swing.
But, once bitten, twice shy, the polls don't necessarily tell us how people might react with the reality of the stark choice in the polling booth.

 

[kabbes]

Is it true that 40% of all kabbes are kabbes?

kabbes

 

[kabbes]

I suspect that, at this stage of the campaign, a seizable portion of any R ->L swing will correlate with anti-tory (Cameron) sentiment, and clearly things have been fucking shocking for them for a couple of weeks. If/when we next start to see boats in the Med or another European terrorist outrage dominating the news agenda, then we might start to see a more significant polling swing.
But, once bitten, twice shy, the polls don't necessarily tell us how people might react with the reality of the stark choice in the polling booth.

I have certainly heard the theory that kabbes is anti-Cameron but it is unclear how that plays out vis-a-vis wider kabbes behaviour in the polling booth.

 

[Athos]

link not working here m8

How about this?:

https://www.tuc.org.uk/sites/default/files/Brexit Legal Opinion.pdf

 

[weltweit]

if the big words are too much for you just say so and i will use little words.

Use whatever words you want but do try to make sense!

 

[littlebabyjesus]

How about this?:

https://www.tuc.org.uk/sites/default/files/Brexit Legal Opinion.pdf

At a first read (intro and conclusions), says about what I would have expected. An 'austerity'-minded govt would have a free hand basically.

Makes a good point about EU standards mostly providing a floor, not a ceiling, for rights.

 

[Athos]

At a first read (intro and conclusions), says about what I would have expected. An 'austerity'-minded govt would have a free hand basically.

Makes a good point about EU standards mostly providing a floor, not a ceiling, for rights.

Seems based on a false premis to me: the inevitability of capitalism. And so presents a false dichotomy: capitalism with no protection versus capitalism with some protections. Would rather see the TUC calling for the end of capitalism. And acknowledging that the EU is really about free movement if capital and people (really labour) i.e. Marx's 'reserve army of labour.'

 

[Dogsauce]

So what will the undecided 13% do , if they vote at all? L

They may just not bother turning up, depends if the 'fear' can motivate them one way or another. I'd guess the 'out' camp will have more energised voters, as they want change, whereas enthusiasm for things pretty much staying the same isn't a big motivator for people. Older people are also typically more likely to vote, and lean strongly to out. It also depends on what the press will do, whether some of the euro-baiting papers will suddenly think they need to start acting responsibly and advocate the 'stable' option of staying in.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Seems based on a false premis to me: the inevitability of capitalism. And so presents a false dichotomy: capitalism with no protection versus capitalism with some protections. Would rather see the TUC calling for the end of capitalism. And acknowledging that the EU is really about free movement if capital and people (really labour) i.e. Marx's 'reserve army of labour.'

The EU isn't just about one thing.

 

[Athos]

The EU isn't just about one thing.

So they'd have us believe.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Are those of us that worry about worker rights just dupes then?

 

[Athos]

Are those of us that worry about worker rights just dupes then?

Don't be daft.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Don't be daft.

But you react to specifics with theoretical abstraction. The theory doesn't account for the specifics.

 

[Athos]

But you react to specifics with theoretical abstraction. The theory doesn't account for the specifics.

No, but the tension between theory/practice is hardly new .

 

[Coolfonz]

Whole thing is a stupid waste of time. The longer the time frame the less it matters. In 100 years who will care? But now? The EU is a product of the politics of the 28 member states - the economics, the crushing of Greece, the deal with Turkey - that isn't going to change. But in the short term there is a huge risk for the leavers. If worst case scenarios occur, there is 500,000, 1mn extra on the dole, years of negotiations to leave, higher inflation/rising house prices as a result of the fall of sterling, industry moving to a market of 415mn people instead of one of 65mn, Scotland leaves UK...then Nigel Farage and fellow travellers should stay clear of lamposts and rope. Could be very messy 5 to 10 years. Can't see any help for any kind of left wing movement, the UK right and far right could run riot if its goes wrong, first a huge shot in the arm for them, then play the conspiracy/victimhood card if it goes wrong.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

No, but the tension between theory/practice is hardly new .

I've been asking the same questions as that TUC piece on here for months. I've received no real answer.

 

[Coolfonz]

would rather see the TUC calling for the end of capitalism

Have you got a Che Guevara t-shirt as well?

 

[DotCommunist]

How about this?:

https://www.tuc.org.uk/sites/default/files/Brexit Legal Opinion.pdf

cheers, thats working

 

[ViolentPanda]

kabbes

Do you have a brother called hodor?

 

[redsquirrel]

I might have posted this link before but this is what pretty much decided me on leaving (and yes I know our lords and masters are highly likely to attempt to negotiate a separate TTIP deal should we leave but I feel we have a much better chance of persuading them that it is not a good idea).

You scaremonger you, there's no danger there

The TTIP issue is being manipulated by those who want us to leave Europe, many of them right-wingers with no love for the NHS, in order to try and persuade voters to back exit.

Indeed, Boris Johnson himself wrote in 2014 that “there is absolutely nothing not to like” about TTIP. Leave campaigners are hypocritically pretending to oppose the concept of free trade with America in order to win a few more votes to their cause.

Let me be clear. I would not support TTIP if I believed in any way that it would allow American health providers to sue our government into breaking open the NHS, as some claim it would.

Of course you wouldn't you filth.

 

[youngian]

You scaremonger you, there's no danger there
Of course you wouldn't you filth.

Where should I go next to establish what is factually correct with regards to TTIP and the opening up public services? What I don't buy from the Independent article is that national governments have no leverage over the sinister bureaucrats. But it's not Jeremy Corbyn negotiating its Cameron and I don't know why Rachel Reeves thinks she's a spokesperson for Dave's decision making. And I haven't heard him 'getting tough with Brussels' over TTIP NHS contracts. So if Reeves is correct you can bet it wasn't Cameron that did the running to alter the trading terms.

So what will the undecided 13% do , if they vote at all? Like it or not Britain leaving will be too explosive right now. Would Cameron actually act on a leave referendum result anyway. Wouldn't he wait and have another one.

Referendums aren't binding anyway and last time the losers didn't accept the result as shown by Michael Foot who put UK withdrawal in 1983 manifesto. Cameron would still be PM and there is no unified Brexit plan of withdrawal to give a mandate to. It's likely the government would negotiate for as little change with the least amount of fuss possible like Norway.

 

[magneze]

So what will the undecided 13% do , if they vote at all? Like it or not Britain leaving will be too explosive right now. Would Cameron actually act on a leave referendum result anyway. Wouldn't he wait and have another one.

If he survives that long he'll have to. So weak right now.