Tory leadership contest 2024

[andysays]

Let's see what happens but now only 18 mps need to put letters of no confidence in. And there are 47 'centrist' mps

There's a new chair of the 1922 Committee and the rules around leadership elections are likely to be revised, possibly though not necessarily including around no-confidencing*.

Calling a vote of no confidence is quite different to actually winning one, but let's see if there are enough full-on headbanger Tory MPs left to try it.

* not a real word, but I'm using it anyway

 

[andysays]

Bollocks to having two threads on the next Tory leader context, I've just posted that same Guardian link on the other one, I'll report this post in the hope of getting them merged, because constant duplicate posts across two threads just makes things confusing.



I saw this discussed on Sky yesterday, apparently the 1922 Committee set the time for the meeting, but the Whip's office circulated the wrong time, so some MPs didn't make it in time to vote, but if all those had all voted for Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, fairly unlikely, Bob Blackman would still have won.

It was funny seeing one Tory MP ranting and raving about it, and demanding the process be carried out again, Tory chaos on the first day of the new Parliament sitting.

I agree that one merged thread would be helpful.

Yeah, I noticed your BiB, but thought it was amusing none the less that the chaos continues.

 

[MrCurry]

Bollocks to having two threads on the next Tory leader context, I've just posted that same Guardian link on the other one, I'll report this post in the hope of getting them merged, because constant duplicate posts across two threads just makes things confusing.

I think the mods are on their summer holidays, as it was reported last week.

 

[Serge Forward]

Bollocks to having two threads on the next Tory leader context, I've just posted that same Guardian link on the other one, I'll report this post in the hope of getting them merged, because constant duplicate posts across two threads just makes things confusing.

I did this already and assume they got merged... but there were three threads and it looks like one missed out

 

[bemused]

They all seem as mad as a bag of frogs. Braverman seems simply crazy, Badenoch has a very thin skin but will probably end up the leader.

 

[moochedit]

Knowing the Tory party, whoever they elect this time may not still be leader by the time of the next GE anyway.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I think the mods are on their summer holidays, as it was reported last week.

Three have all posted in the last three days.

I did this already and assume they got merged... but there were three threads and it looks like one missed out

I remember you posting on the thread about merging them, just checked back, and no the two you asked to be merged haven't been, and there's only the two. The correct way is to ask by the report post link, I was not sure if you had, or you had and it was missed, hence me reporting my post above, fingers crossed.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Knowing the Tory party, whoever they elect this time may not still be leader by the time of the next GE anyway.

Or even a few weeks after they are elected.

 

[moochedit]

Or even a few weeks after they are elected.

Yep thread poll is asking the wrong question. Should be "how many leaders will the tories have during this parliament?"

 

[belboid]

Interesting, if unsurprising, set of results from a poll of Tory members. Badenoch wins, with Braverman & Tugendhat the only other contenders who come at all close. KB still only on 25% tho, room for someone else to squeeze past.

 

[andysays]

Interesting, if unsurprising, set of results from a poll of Tory members. Badenoch wins, with Braverman & Tugendhat the only other contenders who come at all close. KB still only on 25% tho, room for someone else to squeeze past.

Interesting.

Hunt has already ruled himself out, so that leaves 29% effectively undecided.

Jenrick is being spoken about as the possible rightwing contender, but doesn't seem to have that much support ATM.

My money is still on Badenoch, who is (appears) sane enough to get the nomination from the MPs and right enough to get the members' vote.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Yeah, Jenrick is sounding a distinct possibility right now.

Yes. Jenrick will be the next leader. He's in the sweet spot of talking tough on immigration for the members/right MPs/those worried about Reform and the populist right whilst making enough centrist noises for the bulk of MPs.

 

[MrCurry]

Three have all posted in the last three days.



I remember you posting on the thread about merging them, just checked back, and no the two you asked to be merged haven't been, and there's only the two. The correct way is to ask by the report post link, I was not sure if you had, or you had and it was missed, hence me reporting my post above, fingers crossed.

Yes I used the report post button and I know others did too. I also posted weeks ago in feedback forum about the closing of another thread and received diddly squat response to that so far, so the moderation seems particularly light touch at present. Everyone needs a summer holiday I suppose, so I won’t begrudge the forum staff taking a break, but does get confusing for users when there are multiple threads on one subject.

 

[Cloo]

Yes. Jenrick will be the next leader. He's in the sweet spot of talking tough on immigration for the members/right MPs/those worried about Reform and the populist right whilst making enough centrist noises for the bulk of MPs.

Kind of a shame as it means we'll probably end up with one of the serious nutcases in charge at the next election

 

[belboid]

Interesting.

Hunt has already ruled himself out, so that leaves 29% effectively undecided.

Jenrick is being spoken about as the possible rightwing contender, but doesn't seem to have that much support ATM.

My money is still on Badenoch, who is (appears) sane enough to get the nomination from the MPs and right enough to get the members' vote.

Hunts votes would overwhelmingly go centrist wet, so most likely Tugendhat. I'd bet on a Badenoch/Tugendhat run off at the mo, with Badenoch winning it unless TT was miles ahead in the MP vote (which I doubt he would be)

 

[steeplejack]

Badenoch combines the stupidity and charmlessness of Truss with the political instincts of Braverman.

A William Hague-style period of absolutely hopeless opposition sung in a strident G whilst the rest of the public and the government are in B flat major seems very likely. I'm looking forward to Badenoch / James Stupidly / Tugendhat bringing back William Hague's campaign for Real British Beef on the Bone.

Wouldn't surprise me to see Braverman join Farage where she'll be made most welcome I'm sure. Jenrick has corruption in his DNA which for all his short-back-and-sides and increased suit budget makeover will haunt him in the unlikely event he does become leader.

Another thing to bear in mind; the early frontrunner rarely if ever wins the race to lead the Tory Party.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Badenoch combines the stupidity and charmlessness of Truss with the political instincts of Braverman.

Precisely. Her outburst yesterday was barmy and yet predictable. She will not be the next leader as the next gaffe/row is never more than 5 minutes away.

A William Hague-style period of absolutely hopeless opposition sung in a strident G whilst the rest of the piublic and the government and in B flat major seems very likely. I'm looking forward to Badenoch / James Stupidly / Tugendhat bringing back William Hague's campaign for Real British Beef on the Bone.

Wouldn't surprise me to see Braverman join Farage where she'll be made most welcome I'm sure. Jenrick has corruption in his DNA which for all his short-back-and-sides and increased suit budget makeover will haunt him in the unlikely event he does become leader.

Jenrick has all of the the necessary credentials to lead the type of flaccid, useless, irrelevant but 'professional' and 'grown up' flaccid, useless and irrelevant opposition that will emerge. He could - thinking about your last point - conceivably even lead the Tories into a defeat at the next election but win back enough Reform voters and seats to give the next leader a fighting chance in 2034. Badenoch would be gone within a year in a blur of acrimony and blue on blue aggro.

Another thing to bear in mind; the early frontrunner rarely if ever wins the race to lead the Tory Party.

Yes.

 

[editor]

*Duplicate threads merged

 

[Karl Masks]

Badenoch combines the stupidity and charmlessness of Truss with the political instincts of Braverman.

A William Hague-style period of absolutely hopeless opposition sung in a strident G whilst the rest of the public and the government are in B flat major seems very likely. I'm looking forward to Badenoch / James Stupidly / Tugendhat bringing back William Hague's campaign for Real British Beef on the Bone.

Wouldn't surprise me to see Braverman join Farage where she'll be made most welcome I'm sure. Jenrick has corruption in his DNA which for all his short-back-and-sides and increased suit budget makeover will haunt him in the unlikely event he does become leader.

Another thing to bear in mind; the early frontrunner rarely if ever wins the race to lead the Tory Party.

I think i'd be surprised. Braverman is a sitting Tory (somehow) MP. I woulnd't rule it out, but how many of her voters would feel this a betrayal? I mean she could have jumped ship before now, especially having lost her cabinet post

 

[andysays]

*Duplicate threads merged

Thanks editor

 

[cupid_stunt]

I think i'd be surprised. Braverman is a sitting Tory (somehow) MP. I woulnd't rule it out, but how many of her voters would feel this a betrayal? I mean she could have jumped ship before now, especially having lost her cabinet post

Braverman hasn't jumped ship yet, because she's deluded and actually thinks she can become Tory leader, she also doesn't care much about her voters, no doubt thinking they would still support her if/when she does join Reform.

 

[cupid_stunt]

There's all this talk about them taking time to appoint a new leader, and that could take months, but with the blue on blue attacks already under way, my gut feeling is they will want to get it resolved ASAP. Yesterday Badenoch went after Braverman, and Braverman went after Jenrick accusing him of being a centrist, when everyone else sees him as being on the right, but not as far right and bonkers Braverman.

Meanwhile Cleverly has taken a more sensible position, by suggesting the Tories must not descend into ‘bitter infighting', even if his suggestion is a bit too late.

As much as we may find it entertaining, I doubt those in the party will, it's such a damaging situation for them.

She also accused her potential leadership rival and former Home Office colleague Robert Jenrick of being a “centrist Rishi supporter” and a oremainer “from the left of the party”.

Tories must not descend into ‘bitter infighting’, says James Cleverly

Shadow home secretary calls for unity in opposition, after comments from Suella Braverman and Kemi Badenoch

www.theguardian.com

 

[steeplejack]

I think i'd be surprised. Braverman is a sitting Tory (somehow) MP. I woulnd't rule it out, but how many of her voters would feel this a betrayal? I mean she could have jumped ship before now, especially having lost her cabinet post

If you voted for Braverman and she jumped ship to an even more deranged right wing outfit that is much more comfortable with many of her stated positions, I'm not sure why you'd be pissed off about it. Braverman is closest of the candidates to Reform UK and it seems likely that she will jump ship after a derisory vote in the first round of the contest.

I'm sure some of the old buffers and battleaxes who keep the wheels of the Fareham Conservative Association squeaking would be annoyed but given that half the Tory membership would be quite happy with a Farage merger then it'll play fine. Not like she's defecting (back) to the Lib Dems.

 

[Kaka Tim]

At this stage its about which two contentdors the MPs will put forward to the membership. Those two will be one from the right of the party and one from the centre. Braverman almost certianly doesnt have the support to get very far as the various candidates are whittled down- and looks very likely to defect to ReFuk as a reuslt . Looks like its beween Jenrick and badenoch for the right wing mps and Tuggythingy and Cleverly for the centrists. The membership will then vote for the most right wing candidate.
Apparently Badenock is not well liked amongst mps - being a charmless nasty piece of work probably doesnt help - so Jenrick may be the one who goes forward - and will probably then win the membership vote. Hes soiled in corruption and an all round cunt - but probably the best placed to have a certain amount of gammon appeal whilst not repulsing other tory voters too much.

 

[moochedit]

If you voted for Braverman and she jumped ship to an even more deranged right wing outfit that is much more comfortable with many of her stated positions, I'm not sure why you'd be pissed off about it. Braverman is closest of the candidates to Reform UK and it seems likely that she will jump ship after a derisory vote in the first round of the contest.

I'm sure some of the old buffers and battleaxes who keep the wheels of the Fareham Conservative Association squeaking would be annoyed but given that half the Tory membership would be quite happy with a Farage merger then it'll play fine. Not like she's defecting (back) to the Lib Dems.

Was Braverman in the lib dems as well?

I know truss was.

 

[moochedit]

Meanwhile Cleverly has taken a more sensible position, by suggesting the Tories must not descend into ‘bitter infighting', even if his suggestion is a bit too late.

So getting a dig in without getting a dig in

 

[skyscraper101]

Hes soiled in corruption and an all round cunt - but probably the best placed to have a certain amount of gammon appeal whilst not repulsing other tory voters too much.

He's surely onto a loser in this current parliament. I don't see the Tories winning in 2029. He'll be the William Hague option, or the Ed Miliband of the Tory party. The smart choice may be to sit this one out.

 

[Kid_Eternity]

I really, REALLY want him to win - it'll render the Tories unelectable FOREVER. As he's known on Twitter: James Stupidly, the Brainfree MP.

I want Braverman; won’t happen by the look of it but man the sheer tonnage of chaos it would cause the party would cause a global shortage of popcorn!

 

[Kid_Eternity]

Some polling which looks about right to me…

 

[Kid_Eternity]

Cleverly is deffo running.