Pick your Portillo 2024

[Elpenor]

Mel Stride is likely a goner in mid Devon which though it’s a rural seat has a lot of Exeter suburbs too

 

[skyscraper101]

Danny Kruger (vulnerable West Country seat, a very good chance)

MP for my old constituency Devizes which has now been re-boundried as 'East Wiltshire' - Has been conservative since forever but I really hope this scumbag loses his seat.

 

[Dogsauce]

Local to here, it would be funny to see the back of Liam Fox. He got parachuted in to North Somerset as a safe seat a couple of decades back, but demographics have changed a bit with new housing, as well as the decline of the party, and could be out on his arse in a few weeks. Portishead town council is in the hands of one of those local independents parties now, something that seems unfathomable (though they’re probably still quite conservative, as are a lot of such groups).

 

[tim]

If Faiza Shaheen doesn't win in Chingford, I hope her standing at least splits the vote and enables Ian Duncan Smith to beat the candidate that the Labour National Executive foisted on the constituency in her place.

 

[SE25]

Think there's a real chance of Sunak now, not that he'd care

 

[Silas Loom]

Think there's a real chance of Sunak now, not that he'd care

Who is the anti-Sunak candidate? It’s really not clear. Huge field. Ideally, everyone else would make way for Binface, Tatton-style.

 

[Dogsauce]

Has binface behaved acceptably at the Cenotaph though? That’s what’s important. I hope he’s good enough at lowering his head solemnly.

 

[skyscraper101]

I want to believe

 

[DaveCinzano]

I want to believe

A fan of the Ex-MP Files

 

[Zapp Brannigan]

I can see the bulk of the Reform vote going back to JRM if there's even a whiff of "maybe he'll be one of the mass exodus to join the Farage led opposition". But even that wouldn't be enough on those numbers!

 

[Bingoman]

I think come election day it a take your pick moment for the Portillo moment

 

[Elpenor]

Am going to be counting votes until quite late so will miss the fun, and will be phone off from before the exit poll. So considering recording the coverage, and watching several hours behind when I get home.

 

[Orang Utan]

I want to stay up, but am going to a festival the next day and will be staying up the whole weekend so might have to go to bed on election night

 

[Silas Loom]

Bed at 20:00 Thursday, up at 02:30 to start watching election coverage, back to bed at 20:00 Friday and sleep through to Saturday.

It’s the only sensible way to cope until we get some sort of whizzy PR that takes days to compute or, alternatively, electronic voting that all gets announced the moment the ballots close.

 

[Orang Utan]

Can’t go to bed at 20:00 though. Won’t sleep.
Festival starts on Friday through til Monday.
I suppose another night up can’t do any harm.
I don’t have work til the Thursday.

 

[Elpenor]

Made me think what I’ve done before.

2010 - early night as had a stag do the next day.

2015 - I just stayed up all the way through - must have had the friday off. Recall going to bed Friday night so perhaps didn’t sleep Thursday night. Bit old for that now.

2017 - did the same was on holiday I think.

2019 - stayed up until 0430, then to bed and then off to a job interview at 1130 the next morning. Amazingly I got the job despite being nowhere near sober

Will make a point of having some champagne etc to hand in case I want to make a night of it (or morning to be precise) when i get back

 

[bluescreen]

I can see the bulk of the Reform vote going back to JRM if there's even a whiff of "maybe he'll be one of the mass exodus to join the Farage led opposition". But even that wouldn't be enough on those numbers!

There's an interview with him in the i today where he says, afaicr, that he has no intention of joining Refuk because he's a conservative, always has been always will be, but that he wouldn't be averse to farridge joining the Tories.

ETA and it would be brilliant to watch him lose his seat.

 

[cupid_stunt]

There's an interview with him in the i today where he says, afaicr, that he has no intention of joining Refuk because he's a conservative, always has been always will be, but that he wouldn't be averse to farridge joining the Tories.

ETA and it would be brilliant to watch him lose his seat.

This made me laugh.

As for whether he will be at the centre of this election’s “Portillo moment”, when former Tory leader contender Michael Portillo was spectacularly defeated in Enfield Southgate by Labour newbie Stephen Twigg during Tony Blair’s landslide victory in 1997.

“If the current polls are right, people will be spoilt for choice for Portillo moments,” he quips.

Jacob Rees-Mogg: 'I can't look you in the eye and say we'll win'

The darling of the Conservative right tells Rishi Sunak to rescue the election by striking a deal with Nigel Farage

inews.co.uk

 

[bluescreen]

The new seat of Godalming and Ash is a Lib Dem target but it would be worth it to see the losing face of Jeremy Richard Streynsham Hunt

Following that Novara story on Godalming, here's Bloomberg suggesting that black trainers, jeans, navy shirt and suit jacket-wearing Hunt may well lose his seat to an oat milk flat white-sipping LD.

A Backlash in the Tory Heartlands Risks Historic Defeat for Hunt​

Britain’s finance minister battles to avoid losing seat in new ‘Portillo moment’ on July 4.

Archived

https://archive.ph/iwJHA#selection-1881.7-1881.56

 

[Dogsauce]

Having looked through the list of potential losses on the Electoral Calculus thing, I’d quite like to see the defeated faces of Cleverly and Rossindale.

 

[skyscraper101]

Electoral Calculus has the Lib Dems defeating Hunt but it's slim. This is one of those instances where I'd almost definitely be voting Lib Dem, against all my instincts. Just to make sure.

New Seat Details - Godalming and Ash

 

[BusLanes]

Hunt would easily keep the seat if he hadn't been chancellor. But that's wiped away his sensible coding for non tribal voters.

That being said, I still think he'll keep it, if just because the Lib Dems have an embarrassment of good targets next door like Woking , Guildford, Dorking, Surrey Heath and I think they'll run out of activists to get it over the line.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Farage failing in Clacton would be top of my wish list. If he got milkshaked immediately afterwards I would have to conceed that their actually, blatantly is a god.

 

[ouirdeaux]

Faulty logic. It would only prove the existence of milkshakes.

 

[Bingoman]

I love rishi Sunak to lose his seat

 

[Kaka Tim]

Faulty logic. It would only prove the existence of milkshakes.

father, son and the holy shake

 

[cupid_stunt]

Rees-Mogg losing would make my year.

Turned out nice again.

 

[Silas Loom]

The Portaloo/Peterloo moment is definitely going to be Liz Truss, but her count is dragging on longer than her sodding premiership.

 

[moochedit]

The Portaloo/Peterloo moment is definitely going to be Liz Truss, but her count is dragging on longer than her sodding premiership.

Was worth the wait

 

[stavros]

I only stayed up until about half one, so I missed most of the good Portillos. I might watch them all back at some point.