Tory leadership contest 2024

[Agrippa57]

I honestly have no idea which of the two candidates I find more repellent. They're two cheeks of the same horribly and disgustingly soiled arse.
What is actually worrying is that what was once an at least moderately pragmatic party now feels that it has to emulate a far right neo-Nazi party in order to placate its core supporters.

So what is going on here? And is it time to ask ourselves whether we should be concerned that, apparently, a large enough number of voters in this country find the prospect of an ultra right wing Government sufficiently attractive for the members of two Parliamentary groups to view their votes with such evident avarice - indeed, to be prepared to go to war with each other over them?
My Christ, I hate what this country is becoming.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I'll spell it out for the hard of thinking then.

The "one nation" brand of vaguely centre-right Tory is dead. Kaput, bereft of life, ceased to be. Like the Labour left, it's only sitting up because it's nailed to the perch.

Far right Conservatives, far right Reform. Badenoch or Jenrick, there's barely a fag paper between any of them. Labour in power (with their own numbers tanking because they're openly and nakedly bent as a 9 bob note while offering absolutely nothing positive of note) gives them a common enemy.

Tories 24%
Reform 14%
Plus a healthy sprinkling of returning 'borrowed votes' from the "get these Tories out after 14 failed years" crew with short memories.

45%+ far right votes, dwarfing Labour's numbers. And a common enemy means an alliance - formal or informal, spoken or unspoken, however it happens - and if those 45%+ are distributed for maximum effect and a minimum of split vote constituencies, then it spells bloodbath for Labour.

Do I think Badenoch or Jenrick will last the full 5 years? Absolutely not, they don't go from the current shitshow to united front in 5 minutes. But it's another step in the right direction as far as they're concerned.

Kid_Eternity you might as well be walking around with a Farage For PM badge on for all the good you're doing.

I agree strongly with the thrust of this, but disagree on one detail. I think whoever wins this election is likely to still be tory leader come the next election, especially if it's Badenoch. It's not like there's anyone vaguely competent waiting in the wings.

 

[Happy Tree]

Generic is so forgettable I forget what he looks like even while looking at him.

 

[Sue]

I agree strongly with the thrust of this, but disagree on one detail. I think whoever wins this election is likely to still be tory leader come the next election, especially if it's Badenoch. It's not like there's anyone vaguely competent waiting in the wings.

Although tbf when has that stopped them...?

 

[teqniq]

Generic is so forgettable I forget what he looks like even while looking at him.

Whilst I find your wordplay amusing I find him unpleasantly unforgettable from the corruption of the planning application granted to the millionaire property developer for a bung to the malevolent spitefulness of ordering the removal of cartoon murals in Home Office immigration centres for children. Then there's just the appealing to the lowest common denominator of obvious dog whistle racism. A truly repellent individual.

 

[Dogsauce]

Whilst I find your wordplay amusing I find him unpleasantly unforgettable from the corruption of the planning application granted to the millionaire property developer for a bung to the malevolent spitefulness of ordering the removal of cartoon murals in Home Office immigration centres for children. Then there's just the appealing to the lowest common denominator of obvious dog whistle racism. A truly repellent individual.

That stunt he pulled for Desmond took £45 million out of the pockets of taxpayers in return for his donation to the party. Wonder how many nurses that might have funded? Crooked cunt.

 

[Dogsauce]

So what is going on here? And is it time to ask ourselves whether we should be concerned that, apparently, a large enough number of voters in this country find the prospect of an ultra right wing Government sufficiently attractive for the members of two Parliamentary groups to view their votes with such evident avarice - indeed, to be prepared to go to war with each other over them?
My Christ, I hate what this country is becoming.

So much hinges on the US election. A democrat victory might eventually lead to the downfall of Putinism, and in turn a cutting off of the support provided to far-right and anti-EU movements. A Trump victory presents no such chance, in fact is more likely to emulate that sort of regime and Europe is fucked.

I also have the feeling/worry that the European far-right network has enough mass to stand on its own now. For so long shut out and surviving only by being propped up by dark loans from some Orban-linked banking organisation or suchlike, and nurtured by US tech money funnelled through Bannon, it now has enough of a grip on power to no longer need this kind of backing. Plus Iran going up in flames will bring millions more desperate refugees to the shores of Europe, which will be fertile territory for the far right. Add in the chance of more terrorism in response to the west’s complicity in Israel’s slaughtering too. Everything’s fucked.

And as ever it doesn’t help that centrism just isn’t giving out enough jam. Money is still funnelled upwards and we’re being told we can’t have nice things, stood at the bus stop watching landlords drive past in stupidly expensive cars yet expected to blame those with the least power for our woes. And nothing looks like changing. Even fucking Blair managed to spread a bit of jam around, sure start, PCSOs, new schools etc. Starmer has nothing to offer, a bare cupboard. Not even pretending to, even Johnson could manage that bit despite being an obvious bullshitter.

 

[Dogsauce]

I agree strongly with the thrust of this, but disagree on one detail. I think whoever wins this election is likely to still be tory leader come the next election, especially if it's Badenoch. It's not like there's anyone vaguely competent waiting in the wings.

The fucking media will give them an easy ride, whoever it is. How shit they are doesn’t matter. Question Time serving them up pre-scripted talking points about immigration and so on. An easy gig.

 

[Kid_Eternity]

Tory civil war erupts again less than two hours after MPs pivot to the hard right — The Independent

Supporters of Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch have already launched scathing attacks on each other

apple.news

 

[tim]

So much hinges on the US election. A democrat victory might eventually lead to the downfall of Putinism, and in turn a cutting off of the support provided to far-right and anti-EU movements. A Trump victory presents no such chance, in fact is more likely to emulate that sort of regime and Europe is fucked.

I also have the feeling/worry that the European far-right network has enough mass to stand on its own now. For so long shut out and surviving only by being propped up by dark loans from some Orban-linked banking organisation or suchlike, and nurtured by US tech money funnelled through Bannon, it now has enough of a grip on power to no longer need this kind of backing. Plus Iran going up in flames will bring millions more desperate refugees to the shores of Europe, which will be fertile territory for the far right. Add in the chance of more terrorism in response to the west’s complicity in Israel’s slaughtering too. Everything’s fucked.

And as ever it doesn’t help that centrism just isn’t giving out enough jam. Money is still funnelled upwards and we’re being told we can’t have nice things, stood at the bus stop watching landlords drive past in stupidly expensive cars yet expected to blame those with the least power for our woes. And nothing looks like changing. Even fucking Blair managed to spread a bit of jam around, sure start, PCSOs, new schools etc. Starmer has nothing to offer, a bare cupboard. Not even pretending to, even Johnson could manage that bit despite being an obvious bullshitter.

I hope you got a discount when bulk buying all those boxes of dominoes.

 

[kebabking]

I think Jenrick is more dangerous, and will last longer, than Badenoch.

Jenrick says vile things, but not politically stupid things. Badenoch says vile things and politically stupid things - the PCP is now so small that it won't take many to launch a VoNC, and MP's don't like going back to their constituencies thinking 'Christ, what has that fuckwit said now that I'm going to get an ear full over this weekend...'

Last week it was maternity pay, what will it be next week...?

I agree that this, together with Reform, is a serious hard right swing in our mainstream politics - it's not good news. That said, the LD's will be crying with joy - the 'sensible tories' of old, the Rory Stewart, Ken Clarke, John Major Tories who voted for Boris Johnson in 2019 through gritted teeth, and who either stayed at home, or voted Lab/Lib Dem in 2024, are not going back to this version of the Tory party that is almost indistinguishable (but never quite matching..) from Reform.

The Tories and Reform probably have 35% of the vote between them, but while they remain two separate parties they aren't going to get within a mile of being the government.

But nothing lasts forever.

 

[Lotte]

If Badenoch is so utterly useless, how did she end up becoming one of the finalists? Are they setting her up to fail?

 

[andysays]

If Badenoch is so utterly useless, how did she end up becoming one of the finalists? Are they setting her up to fail?

She isn't, IMO, significantly more utterly useless* than the three previous Tory leaders.

At least she won't automatically become the PM as well as Tory leader like they did.

* though not necessarily in quite the same ways

 

[Kid_Eternity]

If Badenoch is so utterly useless, how did she end up becoming one of the finalists? Are they setting her up to fail?

She has some very big backers.

 

[planetgeli]

If Badenoch is so utterly useless, how did she end up becoming one of the finalists? Are they setting her up to fail?

Have you ever followed a Tory leadership contest? They have a spectacularly bad record of either not picking the right person or at least not the favourite. There is nothing more 'knives out' or duplicitous than a Tory party in disarray.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

If Badenoch is so utterly useless, how did she end up becoming one of the finalists? Are they setting her up to fail?

Badenoch isn't useless. She overreaches too much, but she doesn't lack courage or vision. She's also driven in a way that the posh boys of the Tories are not.

She represents - along with Jenerick to a lesser extent - a set of views that are ascendent across much of Europe.

The issue for Badenoch is a) avoiding being wholly consumed by the culture war that she has assiduously used to progress and b) in my view, not to the extent of Cleverly to be fair, economically she's in the past lamenting the passing a formation of capitalism long gone.

 

[Lotte]

Which is what's really frightening. Neither of them are moderate. I know moderates are dangerous in their own way, but the extremists like Badenoch and Jenrick are the ones I'm genuinely frightened of.

 

[DJWrongspeed]

I always thought whoever was elected wasn't going to contest the election and now the MPs have delivered thus.....

 

[brogdale]

and...once elected, more secure than ever:

 

[Serene]

I am expecting Bojo to be named for Im a celebrity.

 

[MickiQ]

Adopt a Tory for only £2 a month.

Property developer Richmond Desmond actually pretty much bought Jenrick and got him fairly cheaply IIRC

 

[Kid_Eternity]

and...once elected, more secure than ever:

View attachment 446340

The party rules on this stuff aren’t written in stone so no surprise this would happen. I still think the ne t leader won’t last more than 2 years.

 

[LakieLady]

If Badenoch is so utterly useless, how did she end up becoming one of the finalists? Are they setting her up to fail?

The Tory talent pool, shallow at the best of times, was drained by Brexit and the ever diminishing size of the PCP.

 

[MickiQ]

The Tory talent pool, shallow at the best of times, was drained by Brexit and the ever diminishing size of the PCP.

more a talent puddle at the moment

 

[bemused]

I'm not sure which one I want to see win. Jenrick says whatever he thinks he wants members to hear. Kemi likes to talk but gets annoyed when people disagree with her. I assume they'll be up for leadership challenges in the future. It's a mad mad world.

 

[Plumdaff]

The Tories and Reform probably have 35% of the vote between them, but while they remain two separate parties they aren't going to get within a mile of being the government.

But nothing lasts forever.

Reform were very happy to stand down in the 2019 to assist Boris.

Given the right price, and a sufficiently hard right leader, I'm sure Farage would be happy to do so again.

This is my real fear and prediction for the next general election, and currently Starmer and co are sleepwalking into the trap of it.

 

[steeplejack]

Reform were very happy to stand down in the 2019 to assist Boris.

Given the right price, and a sufficiently hard right leader, I'm sure Farage would be happy to do so again.

This is my real fear and prediction for the next general election, and currently Starmer and co are sleepwalking into the trap of it.

Will people want a "hard right" leader in 2029? Will that be a solution to anything, given our general climate will be a whole load worse, let alone the international situiation?

The type of mouthbreathers that fantasise about machine gunning asylum seekers in the channel and a return of national service will still vote for Reform, but I get the feeling of disastisfaction with Labour is that many voters thought they would do something at least a little different, whereas they offer no change at all.

People want change from this bland managerialist /centrist /late capitalist pish and there's nothing to vote for. Certainly a "hard right" leader won't offer that, other than symbolically.

 

[Plumdaff]

Will people want a "hard right" leader in 2029? Will that be a solution to anything, given our general climate will be a whole load worse, let alone the international situiation?

The type of mouthbreathers that fantasise about machine gunning asylum seekers in the channel and a return of national service will still vote for Reform, but I get the feeling of disastisfaction with Labour is that many voters thought they would do something at least a little different, whereas they offer no change at all.

People want change from this bland managerialist /centrist /late capitalist pish and there's nothing to vote for. Certainly a "hard right" leader won't offer that, other than symbolically.

If there's no decent alternative and very low voter turnout you don't need to attract that many people to win an election, as Labour proved in July.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

more a talent puddle at the moment

in which most of them are still out of their depth...

 

[quiet guy]

more a talent puddle at the moment

A petri dish more like, where a strain of some sort of fermenting bacteria is reaching it's peak.