Tory Leadership contest 2022

[JimW]

Ok so you're basing your views on a bad feeling about civil servants being leaned on by the government, not on any facts, got you.

You may be right but the final recommendations haven't even been published yet so it seems premature to judge.

AFAIK they have pretty strict rules as to size of each constituency so not that much room to bend them.

The proposals for my own rural constituency that is a Lab Tory marginal make no sense historically, by population or any other metric other than spreading Labour voters round neighbouring safe Tory seats. It's not even subtle.

 

[Knotted]

Sunak is the "leave things as they are" candidate, and that's because he's a hardline Thatcherite not in spite of it. I actually think in terms of Tory survival that he's the worst possible choice for them. A feckless ideologue who will preside over their permanent decline. IME people who think they are Thatcherites actually want change even if they're not sure what that change is and even if they've had pretty much everything their way for the last 43 years. Truss may deliver something newish, she may even surprise us all in 2022 as Starmer becomes the man representing stasis.

 

[steeplejack]

Sunak has marginally less chance of destroying the Tory party for the next decade.

The only "newish' thing Liz Truss will deliver is some excruciating instagram photo ops and economic illiteracy / ruin.

We're fucked anyway. We're all just marking time as the infrastructure of this way of living collapses slowly.

 

[A380]

Thatcher went on to kids' TV and was made to look foolish. You would think Truss would have learnt from her role model not to do this.

Thatcher wasn’t foolish . Despicable and many other things but not foolish. Truss though?

 

[Cat Fan]

The proposals for my own rural constituency that is a Lab Tory marginal make no sense historically, by population or any other metric other than spreading Labour voters round neighbouring safe Tory seats. It's not even subtle.

Which one is that? I'll take a look. I can believe it.

 

[Cat Fan]

It’s getting very difficult to remain polite with you when you are determined to read something completely different to what’s written.

There is no need to ‘lean on’ civil servants, they just frame the policy in such a way that there is practically no choice in what to do.

And you are wrong about the size of constituencies. The tories are bringing in a rule where they must be within 5% of each other (with a couple of special exceptions), up until now there has only been very loose guidance.

I think we broadly agree then. Under the new rules it seems reasonably tricky to gerrymander because of the +/- 5% thing.

The policy as written on the boundary commission website doesn't seem to have any obvious problems.

The only obvious political interference in the recent past has been MPs voting against reducing the number of MPs. That was never going to pass the commons lol, the gravy train must roll on.

I just think it's dangerous to cry gerrymandering because there are much worse examples in other countries like the US and it devalues the term.

 

[Pickman's model]

I just think it's dangerous to cry gerrymandering because there are much worse examples in other countries like the US and it devalues the term.

british gerrymandering is so much more politely done than american gerrymandering.

 

[Cat Fan]

Sinn Fein

Why on earth are you having such a go at the Green party of England and Wales then? Both parties are socially liberal and firmly on the left.

Who do you think people should vote for in England if they want to fight climate change?

 

[JimW]

Which one is that? I'll take a look. I can believe it.

Stroud. Last time I checked they were looking to split out nailsworth and Dursley, for example.

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

Why on earth are you having such a go at the Green party of England and Wales then? Both parties are socially liberal and firmly on the left.

Who do you think people should vote for in England if they want to fight climate change?

Obvious, Sinn Fein of England and Wales.

 

[JimW]

Why on earth are you having such a go at the Green party of England and Wales then? Both parties are socially liberal and firmly on the left.

Who do you think people should vote for in England if they want to fight climate change?

Should have stuck with Raymond Williams ecosocialists in Labour if you didn't want to split the electoral left.

 

[Pickman's model]

Sinn Fein

i'd have thought someone like you would be more of an eirigi man, with their campaign for universal public housing and so on

 

[Cat Fan]

Stroud. Last time I checked they were looking to split out nailsworth and Dursley, for example.

Looks quite ok on first glance, but I have no idea really about the area.

 

[belboid]

I think we broadly agree then. Under the new rules it seems reasonably tricky to gerrymander because of the +/- 5% thing.

The policy as written on the boundary commission website doesn't seem to have any obvious problems.

The only obvious political interference in the recent past has been MPs voting against reducing the number of MPs. That was never going to pass the commons lol, the gravy train must roll on.

I just think it's dangerous to cry gerrymandering because there are much worse examples in other countries like the US and it devalues the term.

christ, just look back at the previous changes. Every single one of which gave the government of the day more seats. This one (the outlines of which have been agreed for around seven or eight years) are due to give the tories an extra fifteen seats. That's just a coincidence? You cannot be that naive.

 

[Cat Fan]

christ, just look back at the previous changes. Every single one of which gave the government of the day more seats. This one (the outlines of which have been agreed for around seven or eight years) are due to give the tories an extra fifteen seats. That's just a coincidence? You cannot be that naive.

Other explanations are possible. The boundaries only change for the next GE so we won't know for sure how it changes the electoral map until then.

 

[JimW]

View attachment 333857
Looks quite ok on first glance, but I have no idea really about the area.

That removes Labour leaning Nailsworth which is unequivocally part of Stroud to dump it in Cotswold where there's no links geographic or historically. See Dursley's back.

 

[Cat Fan]

That removes Labour leaning Nailsworth which is unequivocally part of Stroud to dump it in Cotswold where there's no links geographic or historically. See Dursley's back.

Nailsworth is still in there if you zoom in. Mind you there is a comment from a local councillor asking for it to be taken out so top marks to them for trying.

 

[DotCommunist]

That removes Labour leaning Nailsworth which is unequivocally part of Stroud to dump it in Cotswold where there's no links geographic or historically. See Dursley's back.

My oldest uncle lives in Dursley now, when I asked him about the politics he said 'tories look after the villages and the elderly in 'em' . Its still like stepping back a decade or two visiting those ends. The land that time forgot.

 

[marty21]

I can see a Boris comeback , following the inevitable Tory defeat , Rishi/Truss will resign , and Boris will be begged to return , given his credentials for winning shit . This is assuming he doesn't go off on a huff and either doesn't stand or loses his seat.

Even if he loses his seat , I'm sure a Tory Grandee in an uber-safe seat could be persuaded to become a Lord and Boris slips in.

I'd be happy seeing him as Leader of the Opposition

 

[JimW]

My oldest uncle lives in Dursley now, when I asked him about the politics he said 'tories look after the villages and the elderly in 'em' . Its still like stepping back a decade or two visiting those ends. The land that time forgot.

I like Dursley, resolutely non yummy Sunday supplement.

 

[Elpenor]

Never been to Dursley, but there used to be a race there called the Dursley Dozen

 

[Wilf]

I can see a Boris comeback , following the inevitable Tory defeat , Rishi/Truss will resign , and Boris will be begged to return , given his credentials for winning shit . This is assuming he doesn't go off on a huff and either doesn't stand or loses his seat.

Even if he loses his seat , I'm sure a Tory Grandee in an uber-safe seat could be persuaded to become a Lord and Boris slips in.

I'd be happy seeing him as Leader of the Opposition

I don't see that happening tbh, largely because I think the vermin will still win the next GE. At a pinch I could though seen johnson as the leader of some tory right/spirit of Brexit/alt-right slops tray. Not actually leaving the tory party, but making portentous and loud speeches about winning our country back or similar - whilst making as much grubby/American/Saudi money as he can.

 

[belboid]

Stroud. Last time I checked they were looking to split out nailsworth and Dursley, for example.

Where I live they are going to split my council ward on two - something which is generally not recommended as it just creates confusion over who to lobby. Half the ward will stay in the same constituency but the other half will go into Sheffield south east. We’re in the north of the bloody city, SE makes no sense other than getting some random numbers to balance.

 

[krtek a houby]

i'd have thought someone like you would be more of an eirigi man, with their campaign for universal public housing and so on

Can't vote for anyone these days, its more wishful thinking tbh

 

[steeplejack]

Why on earth are you having such a go at the Green party of England and Wales then? Both parties are socially liberal and firmly on the left.

Who do you think people should vote for in England if they want to fight climate change?

I'd question if 'voting' has anything much to do with 'wanting to fight climate change'.

 

[PR1Berske]

Ah yes, the boundaries commissions. Those independent public bodies whose members are appointed by ... the Cabinet Office.

To their credit everything they do is online, including all comments from members of the public:

2023 Review | Boundary Commission for England

boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk

 

[rubbershoes]

A safe seat is one that’s not changed in twenty plus years. Like mine

The Honiton part of Tiverton and Honiton had been tory for all but one year of the last 200 before the recent by election. As safe as you can get

 

[Raheem]

Never been to Dursley, but there used to be a race there called the Dursley Dozen

Not sure that's enough people to be considered a race.

 

[Pickman's model]

Not sure that's enough people to be considered a race.

maybe there had been more of them before

 

[Raheem]

An extinction event in Stroud? Sounds too good to be true.