The grand tory 'civil war' thread

[existentialist]

Leaving aside the question of why a government would choose to go to the polls when it's got serious problems, how can we have a GE after the referendum? Are you suggesting that the Tory party will put forward a vote in no confidence in itself? Or that enough Tory MPs will defect to allow the opposition parties to win a vote of no confidence?

Sorry but this is fantasy stuff.

I guess the likeliest outcome is that a lame duck government staggers forward, riven by disunity and unable to pass anything remotely controversial, until the next election comes around.

With a decent leader, I guess the party could be pulled together sufficiently to present some kind of united operation prior to that, but I can't see anyone in the running of sufficient charisma, intellect, and common cause with the various factions that could do that. Far more likely that Cameron bales out, some kind of caretaker fall guy falls into the vacant hole, and the party just has an orgy of tearing itself to pieces for the next 4 years.

 

[marty21]

Leaving aside the question of why a government would choose to go to the polls when it's got serious problems, how can we have a GE after the referendum? Are you suggesting that the Tory party will put forward a vote in no confidence in itself? Or that enough Tory MPs will defect to allow the opposition parties to win a vote of no confidence?

Sorry but this is fantasy stuff.

No, but if Cameron resigns , a new leader will crave legitimacy , the Tories banged on at Brown for years for being crowned as leader , a new leader won't want Labour hammering away at them like that. It's not a case of a vote of no confidence , they can dissolve parliament if they want.

 

[redsquirrel]

No, but if Cameron resigns , a new leader will crave legitimacy , the Tories banged on at Brown for years for being crowned as leader , a new leader won't want Labour hammering away at them like that. It's not a case of a vote of no confidence , they can dissolve parliament if they want.

No they can't. Not any more, to call an early election there would have to be
(1) a vote for an early election passed by 66% of MPs or
(2) a vote of no confidence passed against the gov and no opposing vote of confidence within 14 days of the VoNC

The first is off the table, the party behind in the polls isn't going to agree to go to an early election, especially if there's internal dissent in the party.
The second is barely more likely, even if there is huge internal dissent in the Tories I can't see any Tory MPs willing to back a VoNC. You could have a situation where the new leader deliberately loses a VoNC in order to force an early election. However, I think any government would be very wary of doing so, it would look very contrived and could very easily backfire with the electorate.

The "illegitimacy" thing was, and is, meaningless, it's the type of thing oppositions always go on about but suddenly change their minds about when in government. No leader is going to risk losing an election (which if the party is that split is very possible) for "legitimacy". Finally even if they are split the Tories aren't going to go to the polls before the bill redrawing the constituencies is passed.

 

[marty21]

No they can't. Not any more, to call an early election there would have to be
(1) a vote for an early election passed by 66% of MPs or
(2) a vote of no confidence passed against the gov and no opposing vote of confidence within 14 days of the VoNC

The first is off the table, the party behind in the polls isn't going to agree to go to an early election, especially if there's internal dissent in the party.
The second is barely more likely, even if there is huge internal dissent in the Tories I can't see any Tory MPs willing to back a VoNC. You could have a situation where the new leader deliberately loses a VoNC in order to force an early election. However, I think any government would be very wary of doing so, it would look very contrived and could very easily backfire with the electorate.

The "illegitimacy" thing was, and is, meaningless, it's the type of thing oppositions always go on about but suddenly change their minds about when in government. No leader is going to risk losing an election (which if the party is that split is very possible) for "legitimacy". Finally even if they are split the Tories aren't going to go to the polls before the bill redrawing the constituencies is passed.

It wouldn't be difficult to pass legislation to overturn the 5 year parliament rule .

 

[andysays]

It wouldn't be difficult to pass legislation to overturn the 5 year parliament rule .

It might be more difficult than you think, given the premise of this thread, ie a Tory party undergoing civil war and either a weakened old leader (Cameron) or a new leader still needing to establish their legitimacy.

Not impossible, but not a foregone conclusion, IMO.

 

[redsquirrel]

It wouldn't be difficult to pass legislation to overturn the 5 year parliament rule .

Right so this bitterly divided party under a new leader is going to try and pass legislation to remove the fixed term parliaments in order to go to the polls early. Sorry, why? Parties go the polls early when they think they can get a easy victory not when there a divided party with everything to lose.

And it wouldn't be that easy or quick to overturn the fixed term parliament act. Especially if Labour/LDs oppose it, they could easily hold it up in the Lords even if it makes it through the HoC.

Seriously this idea that an early election is likely is nonsense. The chances of there being a GE before 2020 are remote.

 

[existentialist]

Right so this bitterly divided party under a new leader is going to try and pass legislation to remove the fixed term parliaments in order to go to the polls early. Sorry, why? Parties go the polls early when they think they can get a easy victory not when there a divided party with everything to lose.

And it wouldn't be that easy or quick to overturn the fixed term parliament act. Especially if Labour/LDs oppose it, they could easily hold it up in the Lords even if it makes it through the HoC.

Seriously this idea that an early election is likely is nonsense. The chances of there being a GE before 2020 are remote.

Anyway, it'll be much more fun watching them eviscerate themselves as they're forced to somehow survive for four years.

 

[brogdale]

Anyway, it'll be much more fun watching them eviscerate themselves as they're forced to somehow survive for four years.

They won't. There'll be a post-referendum purge after which a bunch of the fuckers will be off to spend more time with their directorships and Panamanian accounts. But thereafter, the nasty party will unite to be in full-on Corbyn demonising mode.

 

[existentialist]

They won't. There'll be a post-referendum purge after which a bunch of the fuckers will be off to spend more time with their directorships and Panamanian accounts. But thereafter, the nasty party will unite to be in full-on Corbyn demonising mode.

For all the best reasons, I hope that you're wrong

But I suspect they'll find a way of hanging on - after all, being nasty doesn't stop them getting voted in

 

[marty21]

Right so this bitterly divided party under a new leader is going to try and pass legislation to remove the fixed term parliaments in order to go to the polls early. Sorry, why? Parties go the polls early when they think they can get a easy victory not when there a divided party with everything to lose.

And it wouldn't be that easy or quick to overturn the fixed term parliament act. Especially if Labour/LDs oppose it, they could easily hold it up in the Lords even if it makes it through the HoC.

Seriously this idea that an early election is likely is nonsense. The chances of there being a GE before 2020 are remote.

Why would Labour/LDs oppose it? The Lib Dems want another election so they can pull themselves away from the electoral basement, Labour would for it to benefit from Corbyn Mania, or to get rid of Corbyn. Just floating an snap GE as a possible, it is possible.

 

[Libertad]

Anyway, it'll be much more fun watching them eviscerate themselves as they're forced to somehow survive for four years.

Not for us povs, we'll catch it as they attempt to enact ever more draconian legislation to show us that they know best and to appeal to those of the law and order persuasion.

 

[existentialist]

Not for us povs, we'll catch it as they attempt to enact ever more draconian legislation to show us that they know best and to appeal to those of the law and order persuasion.

Better have an uprising, then

 

[redsquirrel]

Why would Labour/LDs oppose it? The Lib Dems want another election so they can pull themselves away from the electoral basement, Labour would for it to benefit from Corbyn Mania, or to get rid of Corbyn. Just floating an snap GE as a possible, it is possible.

It's possible that i might win the Noble prize for Chemistry but it isn't going to happen, and neither is an early election.

And how would the LDs pull themselves away from the electoral basement when their vote has barely increased since May 2015? You proclaiming scenarios as possibilities when you don't even have basic facts, such as elections being at the discretion of the PM, right.

 

[marty21]

It's possible that i might win the Noble prize for Chemistry but it isn't going to happen, and neither is an early election.

And how would the LDs pull themselves away from the electoral basement when their vote has barely increased since May 2015? You proclaiming scenarios as possibilities when you don't even have basic facts, such as elections being at the discretion of the PM, right.

Well the Lib Dems haven't much of a chance to increase their vote in less than a year tbf . And I said all along that it would be up to the Tory leader whoever that is.

 

[chilango]

No they can't. Not any more, to call an early election there would have to be
(1) a vote for an early election passed by 66% of MPs or
(2) a vote of no confidence passed against the gov and no opposing vote of confidence within 14 days of the VoNC

The first is off the table, the party behind in the polls isn't going to agree to go to an early election, especially if there's internal dissent in the party.
The second is barely more likely, even if there is huge internal dissent in the Tories I can't see any Tory MPs willing to back a VoNC. You could have a situation where the new leader deliberately loses a VoNC in order to force an early election. However, I think any government would be very wary of doing so, it would look very contrived and could very easily backfire with the electorate.

The "illegitimacy" thing was, and is, meaningless, it's the type of thing oppositions always go on about but suddenly change their minds about when in government. No leader is going to risk losing an election (which if the party is that split is very possible) for "legitimacy". Finally even if they are split the Tories aren't going to go to the polls before the bill redrawing the constituencies is passed.

I can't remember the "how" but the BBC featured one of its analysts speculating on how an early election could and might happen s couple of weeks back.

 

[SpackleFrog]

It's possible that i might win the Noble prize for Chemistry but it isn't going to happen, and neither is an early election.

And how would the LDs pull themselves away from the electoral basement when their vote has barely increased since May 2015? You proclaiming scenarios as possibilities when you don't even have basic facts, such as elections being at the discretion of the PM, right.

I don't think you're taking into consideration that it's pretty unlikely that this Parliament as a whole could limp through four more years with two crisis riven main parties and an impending second global economic crisis. It's perfectly possible that 66% of MP's could decide an early election suited them and once the idea gained some momentum it would be hard for non-Tories to justify not wanting an early election.

 

[gosub]

I can't remember the "how" but the BBC featured one of its analysts speculating on how an early election could and might happen s couple of weeks back.

BBC had someone saying the Lords would vote down the budget a couple of weeks ago - BBC isn't what it was

 

[gosub]

I don't think you're taking into consideration that it's pretty unlikely that this Parliament as a whole could limp through four more years with two crisis riven main parties and an impending second global economic crisis. It's perfectly possible that 66% of MP's could decide an early election suited them and once the idea gained some momentum it would be hard for non-Tories to justify not wanting an early election.

If they did it before the boundary changes then maybe. I think an election would be in the national interest, but that comes a distant second with these fuckers

 

[redsquirrel]

I don't think you're taking into consideration that it's pretty unlikely that this Parliament as a whole could limp through four more years with two crisis riven main parties and an impending second global economic crisis.

Why is it unlikely? (Letting your other assumptions stand for the minute). Governments limp on despite the writing being on the wall all the time, the ALP survived a full term under similar pressures, the Major gov clung on for five years.

How is it going to suit 66% of MPs to go the polls early? If Labour are ahead it's not in the Tories favour and vice versa, and if it's a coin toss then why would so many MPs risk a nice salary and pension for a long shot. You talk about party infighting but how is going to a risky early election where backbenchers could easily lose their seats not going to cause more infighting.

 

[treelover]

Better have an uprising, then

What uprising will that be?, this isn't Iceland, even the Peoples Assembly event on the 16th looks likely to be smaller than in the past.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Governments only call elections when they are sure of winning it or when they have no choice. An unpopular, divided government lurching from crises to crises is not going to call an early election - they will cling on until 2020.

 

[Libertad]

Better have an uprising, then

We're in a state of perpetual rebellion in our house. Small steps eh?

 

[Pickman's model]

We're in a state of perpetual rebellion in our house. Small steps eh?

naughty steps

 

[Pickman's model]

Governments only call elections when they are sure of winning it or when they have no choice. An unpopular, divided government lurching from crises to crises is not going to call an early election - they will cling on until 2020.

oh i do hope not

 

[Santino]

I have no idea how likely it is, but I can imagine a situation in which a faction of the governing party support the dissolution of parliament in order to force an election that they know they will lose, in order to force a leadership election and purge.

 

[existentialist]

What uprising will that be?, this isn't Iceland, even the Peoples Assembly event on the 16th looks likely to be smaller than in the past.

I didn't say it was any particular uprising - I leave such weighty decisions to the political sophisticates around here, like your good self.

Just an uprising in principle will do.

 

[chilango]

BBC had someone saying the Lords would vote down the budget a couple of weeks ago - BBC isn't what it was

I wasn't agreeing with the BBC, just pointing out that some people are talking about an early election being a possibility. That's all.

 

[Pickman's model]

I didn't say it was any particular uprising - I leave such weighty decisions to the political sophisticates around here, like your good self.

Just an uprising in principle will do.

 

[chilango]

...and never, ever underestimate how greedy, self-centred and blinkered MPs are. They don't give a fuck about the government or the Party or anything other than their own interests in what is after all just a big fucking game to them.

 

[gosub]

I wasn't agreeing with the BBC, just pointing out that some people are talking about an early election being a possibility. That's all.

I wasn't saying you were agreeing, I was pointing to another example of BBC pundits saying something could happen (in Lords vetoing budget a major constitutional crisis) when it ain't likely.