"Victims of grooming gangs want action"...headline today on the BBC

[PTK]

"the more serious the allegation the less likely it is that the event occurred".
In other words, it is less likely that these men raped girls than that then committed some other crime?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Yeah, I either said this above or wrote the post and didn’t post it.

Sorry, I've jumped in without reading the whole thread.

It's a position that was seriously put forward on here a few years ago regarding rape. The poster in question stated that he would gladly go to prison on the back of a false accusation if it meant that more rapists were sent down.

 

[Saul Goodman]

Then convince me of why 'beyond resonable doubt' is a better criteria than 'balance of probabilities'.

It isn't, if your intention is to lock up innocent people.
Balance of probabilities is a fucking ridiculous system. It allows posh magistrates to lock people up because they don't like the look of them.

 

[burtabraham]

to tell someone they’ll never recover from their trauma?

I don't need to tell anyone anything. I have first hand experience seeing the effects of what these monsters do.

 

[8ball]

Sorry, I've jumped in without reading the whole thread.

It's a position that was seriously put forward on here a few years ago regarding rape. The poster in question stated that he would gladly go to prison on the back of a false accusation if it meant that more rapists were sent down.

 

[8ball]

The fact remains, these crimes were hidden to avoid community tensions. That simply isn't a good enough reason to deny people justice.

If that is a fact, then I agree totally. It’s not a good enough reason to gloss over the rape of a huge number of working class girls.

It looks to me like it very plausibly might be a fact.

 

[Lotte]

what more justic would you accept from last few post anyone with sniff of suggestion of being involved thrown in a a dark pit forever?

also torygraph links might as well post from the fail

Fucking Allison Pearson's written about it. Given her previous comments, I can guarantee that if these girls had been raped by white men, she'd be calling them slags. They are the kind of girls she looks down on.

Re community tensions, Afzal himself said that people need to get over that. Sweeping it under the carpet will also cause community tensions.

 

[8ball]

It isn't, if your intention is to lock up innocent people.
Balance of probabilities is a fucking ridiculous system. It allows posh magistrates to lock people up because they don't like the look of them.

It should also be noted that there is no recognised system for generating a probability value to attach to a past event unless there is a very strong necessarily causal connection to present conditions.

 

[8ball]

Fucking Allison Pearson's written about it. Given her previous comments, I can guarantee that if these girls had been raped by white men, she'd be calling them slags. They are the kind of girls she looks down on.

Re community tensions, Afzal himself said that people need to get over that. Sweeping it under the carpet will also cause community tensions.

Which previous comments are you basing this on?

 

[Lotte]

The way she complained about her daughter not getting on a TV show because she was too middle-class and not dysfunctional enough.

 

[burtabraham]

It isn't, if your intention is to lock up innocent people.
Balance of probabilities is a fucking ridiculous system. It allows posh magistrates to lock people up because they don't like the look of them.

It doesn't allow that at all. The standard is used in civil cases already.

 

[8ball]

The way she complained about her daughter not getting on a TV show because she was too middle-class and not dysfunctional enough.

I dunno, I’m not very familiar with the sort of stuff she comes out with, but that seems a bit removed from the issue at hand at first glance.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

It should also be noted that there is no recognised system for generating a probability value to attach to a past event unless there is a very strong necessarily causal connection to present conditions.

Also, probabilities relate to levels of knowledge. The more information you have, the more confidence you can have in your probabilities. But change the rules on this and what incentive is there to investigate more than the minimum? Even assuming it were possible to generate numbers in this way, as soon as you get to, say, 60-40, job done, stop investigating, convict.

 

[8ball]

It doesn't allow that at all. The standard is used in civil cases already.

Not everyone thinks that is such a great standard.

 

[Lotte]

I dunno, I’m not very familiar with the sort of stuff she comes out with, but that seems a bit removed from the issue at hand at first glance.

I am familiar, sadly. And I don't trust the Torygraph in general on this.

 

[ouirdeaux]

Well, we don’t know that for sure.

At least I don’t..,

The only involvement the moron could have would be at the wrong end.

 

[8ball]

Also, probabilities relate to levels of knowledge. The more information you have, the more confidence you can have in your probabilities. But change the rules on this and what incentive is there to investigate more than the minimum? Even assuming it were possible to generate numbers in this way, as soon as you get to, say, 60-40, job done, stop investigating, convict.

Yep, I wasn’t even thinking of that kind of procedural stuff.

 

[burtabraham]

The only involvement the moron could have would be at the wrong end.

What is it with the insults? Why does having a different opinion warrant this?

 

[8ball]

I am familiar, sadly. And I don't trust the Torygraph in general on this.

Fair enough. I just get a little wary of dismissing accusations of injustice based on disagreement on other counts.

Eg, Peter Oborne, who wrote for the Daily Mail for years, was quite intrumental in raising the issue that MP’s were very casually defrauding the public with their expense claims and had been doing so for many years.

 

[Orang Utan]

What is it with the insults? Why does having a different opinion warrant this?

Cos you’re a fella presuming to speak for thousands of people you do not know, in service of what I suspect is a shitty agenda

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Not everyone thinks that is such a great standard.

Yes, I find it very strange that civil cases can be brought for criminal acts. Not sure how often it happens here, though, tbf. Seems like more of a US thing.

Surely the point of having a lower standard of proof in a civil case is that criminality is not involved and to relate this to my previous point, the stakes are lower such that it isn't worth the effort and expense of producing higher certainty through thorough investigation. eg: 'Mate, we know you might not have done it but this restraining order is now in place, so for all our sakes just keep away'. Even then, I'm not particularly happy about a 'greater than 50/50 chance' though.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Fair enough. I just get a little wary of dismissing accusations of injustice based on disagreement on other counts.

Eg, Peter Oborne, who wrote for the Daily Mail for years, was quite intrumental in raising the issue that MP’s were very casually defrauding the public with their expense claims and had been doing so for many years.

Oborne is a strange one. He's been extremely vocal about Palestine for decades and forthright recently about the genocide. He's something of a dissenting right winger.

 

[CNT36]

The report says that the evidence is inconclusive



The question I'd ask is why is the data so patchy? The fact remains, these crimes were hidden to avoid community tensions. That simply isn't a good enough reason to deny people justice.

Because it wasn't collected. We might have some data if the 2022 reports recommendations had been acted on with some urgency. Which they haven't and most not acted on at all.

 

[burtabraham]

It should also be noted that there is no recognised system for generating a probability value to attach to a past event unless there is a very strong necessarily causal connection to present conditions.

Also, probabilities relate to levels of knowledge. The more information you have, the more confidence you can have in your probabilities. But change the rules on this and what incentive is there to investigate more than the minimum? Even assuming it were possible to generate numbers in this way, as soon as you get to, say, 60-40, job done, stop investigating, convict.

These are interesting philosophical questions, and I won't dismiss them out of hand, but debating the finer details of epistemology might be more suited to a different thread. I'd be happy doing that at some point.

Wjhat I would say though, and I won't go on much more because it's past midnight, when women have to walk around their town and risk bumping into the men that gang raped them, knowing that they will never have justice bought against them, the philosophising seems rather insignificant.

 

[burtabraham]

Cos you’re a fella presuming to speak for thousands of people you do not know, in service of what I suspect is a shitty agenda

You are also presumung to speak for thousands of people.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

These are interesting philosophical questions, and I won't dismiss them out of hand, but debating the finer details of epistemology might be more suited to a different thread. I'd be happy doing that at some point.

Wjhat I would say though, and I won't go on much more because it's past midnight, when women have to walk around their town and risk bumping into the men that gang raped them, knowing that they will never have justice bought against them, the philosophising seems rather insignificant.

You're the one who brought up lowering the standard, though. If you want agreement about the appalling state of rape convictions in this country, you'll get it on here if you address the question a bit differently.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

You are also presumung to speak for thousands of people.

No he's not. He's saying explicitly that he would do no such thing.

 

[burtabraham]

Yes, I find it very strange that civil cases can be brought for criminal acts. Not sure how often it happens here, though, tbf. Seems like more of a US thing.

Surely the point of having a lower standard of proof in a civil case is that criminality is not involved and to relate this to my previous point, the stakes are lower such that it isn't worth the effort and expense of producing higher certainty through thorough investigation. eg: 'Mate, we know you might not have done it but this restraining order is now in place, so for all our sakes just keep away'. Even then, I'm not particularly happy about a 'greater than 50/50 chance' though.

Forgive me if I've misunderstood you, but are you saying you believe there should be a standard of beyond reasonable doubt for a restaining order to be handed out? Would you say that if you had ever needed to take one out against a person?

 

[ouirdeaux]

Cos you’re a fella presuming to speak for thousands of people you do not know, in service of what I suspect is a shitty agenda

We know about his shitty agenda. At least, those who recall his posts on the inevitable destruction of British identity do.

 

[burtabraham]

You're the one who brought up lowering the standard, though. If you want agreement about the appalling state of rape convictions in this country, you'll get it on here if you address the question a bit differently.

How should I have addressed the question? How would you increase the rates of conviction?