"Victims of grooming gangs want action"...headline today on the BBC

[8ball]

Then convince me of why 'beyond resonable doubt' is a better criteria than 'balance of probabilities'.

I could start with inviting you to imagine a scenario where you were falsely accused of something, but tbh I don’t really care about whether you’re convinced.

You are proposing the idea of sacrificing innocent people in the aim of capturing a greater proportion of the guilty and I am basically saying there are externalities to this strategy that are very destructive.

I’m mostly just grateful that the relevant decision makers don’t share your moral outlook.

 

[burtabraham]

Wtf are you on about?

i'm saying that if you allow a rapist to go free then you are punishing their victims by denying them justice.

 

[8ball]

I've never been in a situation where it was more likely I raped someone than didn't.

That’s not what we’re talking about. We’re talking about a situation in which you have already been accused.

 

[burtabraham]

I could start with inviting you to imagine a scenario where you were falsely accused of something, but tbh I don’t really care about whether you’re convinced.

You are proposing the idea of sacrificing innocent people in the aim of capturing a greater proportion of the guilty and I am basically saying there are externalities to this strategy that are very destructive.

I’m mostly just grateful that the relevant decision makers don’t share your moral outlook.

Being accused is not the standard I am proposing. I have very clearly stated that the balance of probabilities (the standard used in civil cases) is more just.

 

[Ax^]

i'm saying that if you allow a rapist to go free then you are punishing their victims by denying them justice.

I do hope you have no involvement with legal or law enforcement..

Jesus you be rounding up men based on racial description and sending them off to prison based ont the balance of probability

your position is foolish

 

[Orang Utan]

i'm saying that if you allow a rapist to go free then you are punishing their victims by denying them justice.

I think calling that a life sentence for the victims demeans the victim.

 

[PTK]

they racially abused their targets at the same time as sexually abusing them, .

Can you quote any evidence for that assertion?

 

[8ball]

I think calling that a life sentence for the victims demeans the victim.

That’s an interesting point.

 

[burtabraham]

I do hope you have no involvement with legal or law enforcement..

Jesus you be rounding up men based on racial description and sending them off to prison based ont the balance of probability

your position is foolish

You clearly don't understand what the term balance of probabilities means.

 

[burtabraham]

That’s an interesting point.

It's a batshit crazy point

 

[8ball]

You clearly don't understand what the term balance of probabilities means.

Can you define a little more precisely what it means for you?

I have worked in the area of probability, statistics, bias, and (very broadly speaking) what kind of confidence can be garnered from numerical data for the last 30 years and it would be useful to agree on a working definition.

 

[8ball]

It's a batshit crazy point

Why so?

 

[Ax^]

You clearly don't understand what the term balance of probabilities means.

thankfully you have no say in any legal environment.. dodgy poster is dodgy

 

[8ball]

thankfully you have no say in any legal environment.. dodgy poster is dodgy

Well, we don’t know that for sure.

At least I don’t..,

 

[burtabraham]

Can you define a little more precisely what it means for you?

I have worked in the area of probability, statistics, bias, and (very broadly speaking) what kind of confidence can be garnered from numerical data, and it would be useful to agree on a working definition.

Here is a good overview

The balance of probability standard means that a court is satisfied an event occurred if the court considers that, on the evidence, the occurrence of the event was more likely than not. When assessing the probabilities the court will have in mind as a factor, to whatever extent is appropriate in the particular case, that the more serious the allegation the less likely it is that the event occurred and, hence, the stronger should be the evidence before the court concludes that the allegation is established on the balance of probability.

So no-one gets declared guilty simply for being accused, or for being a particular race as suggested by Ax^ .

 

[Orang Utan]

It's a batshit crazy point

It’s not.
You are implying that the victims will be unable to recover from their trauma. You don’t have the right to do that

 

[burtabraham]

Why so?

Because I have seen first hand how people victimised in this way suffer a lifetime of trauma

 

[burtabraham]

It’s not.
You are implying that the victims will be unable to recover from their trauma. You don’t have the right to do that

I have every right.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Here is a good overview



So no-one gets declared guilty simply for being accused, or for being a particular race as suggested by Ax^ .

Pretty woolly, though. You need to make a whole bunch of assumptions to come up with where you're putting the fulcrum on your balance.

 

[8ball]

Here is a good overview



So no-one gets declared guilty simply for being accused, or for being a particular race as suggested by Ax^ .

Yeah, that’s a pretty messy overview.

 

[CNT36]

The topic at hand is very specifically gang-based sexual offensives aimed at children though, not sexual offenses in general. Of course most sex crimes are commited by white people because most of the country is white.

The best data available (which isn't great and very patchy) to the writers of a 2020 report suggests that also applies to CSE even where the data show broad ethnicities are overrepresented white people are still the majority.

2020 report

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/944206/Group-based_CSE_Paper.pdf

 

[Orang Utan]

I have every right.

to tell someone they’ll never recover from their trauma?

 

[burtabraham]

thankfully you have no say in any legal environment.. dodgy poster is dodgy

Dodgy why? Back your points up.

 

[Ax^]

Can you quote any evidence for that assertion?

answer his question btw

 

[PTK]

I have every right.

No you don't.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

You could argue, given that false accusations are rarer than true accusations, that you're guilty straight away on the balance of probabilities once you're accused.

 

[8ball]

Because I have seen first hand how people victimised in this way suffer a lifetime of trauma

A tiny subset of people (in your case), where there are documented counter-examples.

It’s not a line I’m that comfortable with continuing though, tbf.

 

[8ball]

You could argue, given that false accusations are rarer than true accusations, that you're guilty straight away on the balance of probabilities once you're accused.

Yeah, I either said this above or wrote the post and didn’t post it.

 

[8ball]

No you don't.

I’d argue he has the right to say it, but the duty to back it up (purely based on the generally accepted “don’t be a dick” rule).

 

[burtabraham]

The best data available (which isn't great and very patchy) to the writers of a 2020 report suggests that also applies to CSE even where the data show broad ethnicities are overrepresented white people are still the majority.

2020 report

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/944206/Group-based_CSE_Paper.pdf

The report says that the evidence is inconclusive

Research has found that group-based CSE offenders are most commonly White.4 Some studies suggest an over-representation of Black and Asian offenders relative to the demographics of national populations.5 However, it is not possible to conclude that this is representative of all group-based CSE offending. This is due to issues such as data quality problems, the way the samples wereselected in studies, and the potential for bias and inaccuracies in the way thatethnicity data is collected.

The question I'd ask is why is the data so patchy? The fact remains, these crimes were hidden to avoid community tensions. That simply isn't a good enough reason to deny people justice.